本文選題：蛻變機理 + 蛻變測度指標(biāo)��； 參考：《山東科技大學(xué)》2017年碩士論文

【摘要】：產(chǎn)業(yè)蛻變作為一個客觀存在的規(guī)律,是在每一個產(chǎn)業(yè)的成長中一定要經(jīng)歷的過程,是對產(chǎn)業(yè)逐漸實現(xiàn)由數(shù)量上的增減變化到發(fā)生根本性變化的發(fā)展過程的客觀呈現(xiàn),它可以被看作演化著的復(fù)雜系統(tǒng),并有其自身的內(nèi)在發(fā)展機理,但目前研究中缺乏對這一規(guī)律的定量分析,導(dǎo)致對產(chǎn)業(yè)發(fā)展規(guī)律及方向未能形成清晰的認(rèn)識以及有效的把控。因此,本文基于發(fā)展的觀點,依據(jù)產(chǎn)業(yè)蛻變指標(biāo)的動態(tài)變化性,運用BP神經(jīng)網(wǎng)絡(luò)模型對產(chǎn)業(yè)蛻變程度及階段進行測度,在研究過程中主要形成以下觀點及內(nèi)容:本研究的開始是在以產(chǎn)業(yè)生命周期理論、產(chǎn)業(yè)蛻變理論為基礎(chǔ)的前提下,對產(chǎn)業(yè)、企業(yè)、產(chǎn)品蛻變的規(guī)律與核心關(guān)系采用定性與定量相結(jié)合的方法進行分析,明晰產(chǎn)業(yè)蛻變內(nèi)在機理,并對產(chǎn)業(yè)蛻變影響因素進行闡述,為產(chǎn)業(yè)蛻變測度指標(biāo)的選取以及模型構(gòu)建奠定基礎(chǔ);其次,通過對以往研究中產(chǎn)業(yè)相關(guān)測度指標(biāo)的歸結(jié),根據(jù)指標(biāo)的基本選取準(zhǔn)則與相關(guān)數(shù)據(jù)的可操作特性,并運用SPSS21.0對指標(biāo)進行篩選,從而構(gòu)建測度指標(biāo)體系,這不僅能夠幫助減少指標(biāo)冗余,還能盡可能排除測度模型輸入神經(jīng)元數(shù)據(jù)間的關(guān)聯(lián)屬性。在此基礎(chǔ)上,采用MATLAB 7.6構(gòu)建的BP神經(jīng)網(wǎng)絡(luò)產(chǎn)業(yè)蛻變測度模型,用于對產(chǎn)業(yè)蛻變程度指數(shù)進行測度;然后,以我國計算機制造產(chǎn)業(yè)1996-2015年的指標(biāo)數(shù)據(jù)作為訓(xùn)練樣本數(shù)據(jù)檢驗該測度模型,訓(xùn)練達標(biāo)后通過SIM函數(shù)仿真得到計算機蛻變程度指數(shù),通過該指數(shù)的變化可以發(fā)現(xiàn)計算機制造產(chǎn)業(yè)蛻變過程波動性很強,這與其技術(shù)導(dǎo)向、更新?lián)Q代快的特點有關(guān);最后,根據(jù)產(chǎn)業(yè)蛻變指數(shù)測度結(jié)果,及產(chǎn)業(yè)蛻變階段劃分定性依據(jù),運用ArcGIS10.1軟件中的自然斷點法對我國計算機制造產(chǎn)業(yè)1996-2015年所處蛻變周期階段進行分析與劃分,并通過對產(chǎn)業(yè)所處階段的合理判定,發(fā)現(xiàn)產(chǎn)業(yè)轉(zhuǎn)型的迫切性,并基于以上對該產(chǎn)業(yè)蛻變過程及現(xiàn)狀的分析,提出產(chǎn)業(yè)轉(zhuǎn)型的策略。此外,根據(jù)產(chǎn)業(yè)特點與性質(zhì)調(diào)整產(chǎn)業(yè)蛻變測度指標(biāo)體系,本文提出的測度方法也可以實現(xiàn)對其他產(chǎn)業(yè)蛻變程度的測度,并可根據(jù)測度結(jié)果,對產(chǎn)業(yè)進一步地發(fā)展與調(diào)整提供決策依據(jù)。
[Abstract]:As an objective law of existence, industrial transformation is a process that must be experienced in the growth of every industry. It is an objective presentation of the gradual realization of the development process of industry from quantity increase or decrease to fundamental change. It can be regarded as an evolving complex system, and has its own internal development mechanism. However, there is a lack of quantitative analysis of this law in current research, which leads to the lack of a clear understanding and effective control of the law and direction of industrial development. Therefore, based on the viewpoint of development and the dynamic change of the index of industrial transformation, this paper uses BP neural network model to measure the degree and stage of industrial transformation. In the course of the research, the following viewpoints and contents are formed: the beginning of this study is based on the theory of industry life cycle, the theory of industrial transformation, The law and core relationship of product transformation are analyzed by the combination of qualitative and quantitative methods, and the internal mechanism of industrial transformation is clarified, and the influencing factors of industrial disintegration are expounded. It lays a foundation for the selection of industry transformation measure index and the establishment of model. Secondly, through the resolution of industry related measure index in previous research, according to the basic selection criteria of indicators and the operational characteristics of relevant data, SPSS21.0 is used to screen the indicators and construct the measurement index system, which can not only help to reduce the redundancy of the indicators, but also exclude the correlation attributes between the input neuron data of the measure model as much as possible. On this basis, the paper uses the BP neural network model constructed by MATLAB 7.6 to measure the degree of industrial disintegration. The index data of China's computer manufacturing industry from 1996 to 2015 are taken as the training sample data to test the measurement model, and the computer degenerate degree index is obtained by SIM function simulation after the training reaches the standard. Through the change of the index, we can find that the change process of computer manufacturing industry is very volatile, which is related to the characteristics of technology orientation and rapid upgrading. Finally, according to the measurement results of industry transformation index, And the qualitative basis of the division of the industrial transformation stage, the natural breakpoint method in ArcGIS10.1 software is used to analyze and divide the transformation cycle stage of China's computer manufacturing industry from 1996 to 2015, and the reasonable judgment of the industry stage is given. The urgency of industrial transformation is found, and the strategy of industrial transformation is put forward based on the above analysis of the process and current situation of industry transformation. In addition, according to the characteristics and nature of the industry, the measurement system can be adjusted to measure the degree of transformation of other industries, and according to the results, the measurement method proposed in this paper can also be used to measure the degree of transformation of other industries. Further development and adjustment of the industry to provide a basis for decision-making.
【學(xué)位授予單位】：山東科技大學(xué)
【學(xué)位級別】：碩士
【學(xué)位授予年份】：2017
【分類號】：F224;F426.67

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