基于系統(tǒng)動力學的馬鞍山市鋼鐵產(chǎn)業(yè)政策模擬研究
發(fā)布時間:2018-04-24 06:59
本文選題:馬鞍山市 + 鋼鐵產(chǎn)業(yè)。 參考:《中國地質(zhì)大學(北京)》2015年碩士論文
【摘要】:我國資源型城市由于發(fā)展的特殊性,對資源的依賴程度高,資源相關產(chǎn)業(yè)決定著城市經(jīng)濟的發(fā)展。馬鞍山市是典型的資源型城市,是我國重要的鋼鐵基地,鋼鐵產(chǎn)業(yè)是支撐當?shù)亟?jīng)濟持續(xù)發(fā)展的支柱產(chǎn)業(yè)。面臨國內(nèi)和國際新形勢的機遇與挑戰(zhàn),如何制定科學合理的產(chǎn)業(yè)政策引導鋼鐵產(chǎn)業(yè)的發(fā)展,實現(xiàn)經(jīng)濟效益和生態(tài)環(huán)境發(fā)展的“雙贏”局面,顯得至關重要。本文在資源型城市相關理論、產(chǎn)業(yè)結(jié)構(gòu)和產(chǎn)業(yè)生命周期理論和系統(tǒng)動力學理論的背景下,通過分析馬鞍山市經(jīng)濟與鋼鐵產(chǎn)業(yè)、環(huán)境子系統(tǒng)的現(xiàn)狀,發(fā)現(xiàn)馬鞍山市在發(fā)展過程中存在產(chǎn)業(yè)結(jié)構(gòu)單一、環(huán)境問題突出和鋼鐵產(chǎn)業(yè)鏈短的問題;在借鑒了前人研究成果的基礎上,運用Vensim PLE軟件,從資金、技術、勞動力和資源角度,構(gòu)建了馬鞍山市經(jīng)濟與鋼鐵產(chǎn)業(yè)、環(huán)境子系統(tǒng)的系統(tǒng)動力學仿真模型,對馬鞍山市鋼鐵產(chǎn)業(yè)2012-2021年的發(fā)展趨勢進行模擬仿真。通過模型控制變量的參數(shù)組合,制定了四種鋼鐵產(chǎn)業(yè)發(fā)展政策,即資金導向型產(chǎn)業(yè)政策、技術導向型產(chǎn)業(yè)政策、勞動力導向型產(chǎn)業(yè)政策和環(huán)境保護導向型產(chǎn)業(yè)政策,通過鋼鐵產(chǎn)業(yè)增加值來判斷四種產(chǎn)業(yè)政策的效果。模型結(jié)果顯示:技術導向型產(chǎn)業(yè)政策的經(jīng)濟效益最大,其次是資金導向型產(chǎn)業(yè)政策,勞動力導向型產(chǎn)業(yè)政策對鋼鐵產(chǎn)業(yè)發(fā)展的拉動力極小,而環(huán)境保護導向型產(chǎn)業(yè)政策的環(huán)境效益最大,經(jīng)濟效益最小。綜合上述四種產(chǎn)業(yè)政策的效果,最終確定了鋼鐵產(chǎn)業(yè)綜合優(yōu)化發(fā)展的產(chǎn)業(yè)政策。最后,對馬鞍山市鋼鐵產(chǎn)業(yè)的發(fā)展提出了政策建議,即發(fā)揮資源優(yōu)勢,延長鋼鐵產(chǎn)業(yè)鏈;大力推進技術創(chuàng)新;穩(wěn)定鋼鐵產(chǎn)業(yè)的資金供給;加大環(huán)保投資,注重環(huán)境保護。
[Abstract]:Because of the particularity of development, resource-based cities are highly dependent on resources, and resource-related industries determine the development of urban economy. Ma'anshan is a typical resource-based city and an important iron and steel base in China. Steel industry is the pillar industry to support the sustainable development of local economy. Facing the opportunities and challenges of the new domestic and international situation, it is very important to formulate scientific and reasonable industrial policies to guide the development of the steel industry and to realize the "win-win" situation of economic benefits and ecological environment development. Under the background of resource-based city theory, industrial structure and industry life cycle theory and system dynamics theory, this paper analyzes the present situation of Maanshan's economy and iron and steel industry, environment subsystem. It is found that in the process of development of Ma'anshan there are some problems such as single industrial structure, outstanding environmental problems and short iron and steel industry chain. On the basis of drawing lessons from previous research results, we use Vensim PLE software, from the perspective of capital, technology, labor force and resources. The system dynamics simulation model of Maanshan iron and steel industry and environment subsystem is constructed, and the development trend of Maanshan iron and steel industry in 2012-2021 is simulated. Through the parameter combination of model control variables, four kinds of development policies of iron and steel industry are formulated, namely, capital-oriented industrial policy, technology-oriented industrial policy, labor-oriented industrial policy and environmental protection-oriented industrial policy. Through the value added of iron and steel industry to judge the effect of four industrial policies. The results show that the technology-oriented industrial policy has the greatest economic benefits, followed by the capital-oriented industrial policy, and the labor-oriented industrial policy has little pull power on the development of steel industry. Environmental protection-oriented industrial policies have the greatest environmental benefits and the least economic benefits. After synthesizing the effects of the above four industrial policies, the industrial policies for the comprehensive optimization and development of the iron and steel industry are finally determined. Finally, the paper puts forward some policy suggestions for the development of iron and steel industry in Ma'anshan, that is, to give full play to the advantages of resources, to extend the iron and steel industry chain, to vigorously promote technological innovation, to stabilize the supply of funds for the steel industry, to increase investment in environmental protection, and to pay attention to environmental protection.
【學位授予單位】:中國地質(zhì)大學(北京)
【學位級別】:碩士
【學位授予年份】:2015
【分類號】:F426.31;N941.3
【參考文獻】
相關期刊論文 前4條
1 A.W.克拉格,宋光明,闞世U,
本文編號:1795618
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