本文選題：中巴經(jīng)濟走廊 + 貿(mào)易增長空間�。� 參考：《世界經(jīng)濟研究》2017年03期

【摘要】：中巴經(jīng)濟走廊作為"一帶一路"戰(zhàn)略的重要組成部分,其貫通將對中國與周邊國家的貨物貿(mào)易運輸環(huán)節(jié)產(chǎn)生巨大沖擊。文章依據(jù)中國與中巴經(jīng)濟走廊沿線貿(mào)易伙伴國的貿(mào)易數(shù)據(jù),引入預(yù)計貿(mào)易增長空間與極限貿(mào)易增長空間兩個測度指標(biāo),結(jié)合回歸分析與反事實分析方法測算中巴經(jīng)濟走廊貫通將造成的經(jīng)濟效應(yīng)。研究結(jié)果顯示:運輸距離對中國與伙伴國貿(mào)易活動的抑制作用明顯,伙伴國人口總量與區(qū)域貿(mào)易協(xié)定在中國進出口貿(mào)易上具有"非對稱"特征;中國進出口貿(mào)易均面臨典型的非效率問題,其中進口層面的效率問題更為突出;中巴經(jīng)濟走廊貫通將使中國出口與進口的預(yù)計貿(mào)易增長空間提升19.4%與10.1%以上,若進一步釋放現(xiàn)有貿(mào)易環(huán)境的潛力,中國出口與進口的極限貿(mào)易增長空間將分別得到26.3%~263.6%與14.6%~779.7%的提升。
[Abstract]:As an important part of Belt and Road's strategy, China-Pakistan Economic Corridor will have a great impact on the transportation of goods between China and its neighboring countries.Based on the trade data between China and its trading partners along the China-Pakistan Economic Corridor, the paper introduces two measures, namely, the expected trade growth space and the limit trade growth space.Combined with regression analysis and counter-fact analysis, the economic effect of China-Pakistan Economic Corridor is estimated.The results show that the distance between China and its partners has an obvious restraining effect on the trade between China and its partner countries, and the total population of partner countries and regional trade agreements have the characteristics of "asymmetry" in China's import and export trade.China's import and export trade is faced with typical non-efficiency problems, among which the efficiency problem at the import level is more prominent, and the expansion of the China-Pakistan Economic Corridor will increase the space for the expected trade growth of China's exports and imports by more than 19.4% and 10.1%.If the potential of the existing trade environment is further released, the limit trade growth space for China's exports and imports will be 26.3 percent and 14.677 percent respectively.
【作者單位】： 石河子大學(xué)經(jīng)濟與管理學(xué)院;江蘇理工學(xué)院商學(xué)院;
【基金】：自治區(qū)普通高校人文社會科學(xué)重點研究基地兵團屯墾經(jīng)濟研究中心項目“新絲綢之路經(jīng)濟帶建設(shè)中兵團對外貿(mào)易戰(zhàn)略轉(zhuǎn)型研究”(項目編號:XHEDU020214C05)的階段性研究成果
【分類號】：F752.6

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