本文選題：產(chǎn)業(yè)結(jié)構(gòu)　切入點(diǎn)：碳排放　出處：《云南財(cái)經(jīng)大學(xué)》2017年碩士論文

【摘要】：隨大量生產(chǎn)活動(dòng)排放的數(shù)量巨大的二氧化碳不斷給全球氣候變化蒙上陰影。大氣中二氧化碳的迅速聚集會(huì)導(dǎo)致氣溫升高,這種影響擴(kuò)散以后會(huì)破壞整個(gè)生態(tài)系統(tǒng)的平衡,有可能引發(fā)災(zāi)難性的后果。為了避免這一切就要控制二氧化碳排放量的增長(zhǎng)。我國(guó)每年排放的二氧化碳在全球占到很大的份額,因此國(guó)際社會(huì)有強(qiáng)烈的動(dòng)機(jī)不斷向我國(guó)施加壓力。我國(guó)正處于經(jīng)濟(jì)增長(zhǎng)階段,產(chǎn)業(yè)結(jié)構(gòu)正在快速成長(zhǎng),而且我國(guó)粗放的經(jīng)濟(jì)增長(zhǎng)方式也常受到人們的詬病,在這種增長(zhǎng)方式下往往不會(huì)形成健康良性的經(jīng)濟(jì)結(jié)構(gòu)。因此為了實(shí)現(xiàn)經(jīng)濟(jì)持續(xù)增長(zhǎng),就需要轉(zhuǎn)變經(jīng)濟(jì)增長(zhǎng)方式,調(diào)整產(chǎn)業(yè)結(jié)構(gòu),實(shí)現(xiàn)產(chǎn)業(yè)結(jié)構(gòu)優(yōu)化。這個(gè)過(guò)程意味著對(duì)資源進(jìn)行重新配置,在提高經(jīng)濟(jì)效率的同時(shí),也在提高能源效率,可以起到抑制碳排放的作用。本文以云南省的碳減排為目標(biāo),通過(guò)能源資源引導(dǎo)其他資源在行業(yè)間進(jìn)行重新配置,引導(dǎo)產(chǎn)業(yè)結(jié)構(gòu)調(diào)整,釋放碳減排潛力。本文對(duì)云南省碳排放的影響因素進(jìn)行了分解,發(fā)現(xiàn)碳排放的增加最主要的原因是經(jīng)濟(jì)增長(zhǎng)對(duì)能源需求的持續(xù)增長(zhǎng),而技術(shù)進(jìn)步、產(chǎn)業(yè)結(jié)構(gòu)、能源結(jié)構(gòu)都可以成為抑制碳排放的原因。技術(shù)進(jìn)步已有明顯的減排效果,而產(chǎn)業(yè)結(jié)構(gòu)卻沒(méi)有明顯的減排效果。像化學(xué)工業(yè)、非金屬礦物制品業(yè)和金屬產(chǎn)品制造業(yè)這3大部門(mén)是主要的耗能部門(mén),因而也是碳排放的主要來(lái)源,它們?cè)?014年云南省GDP中的比值是10.76%,排放的二氧化碳占總排放量的66.09%。雖然各個(gè)行業(yè)的產(chǎn)值與其碳排放的對(duì)應(yīng)關(guān)系存在普遍差異,在很大程度上是由行業(yè)自身的技術(shù)特點(diǎn)所致,但存在像云南省這樣產(chǎn)值和碳排放反差強(qiáng)烈的行業(yè)依然反映出產(chǎn)業(yè)結(jié)構(gòu)不合理的問(wèn)題。本文結(jié)合投入產(chǎn)出模型,考慮了調(diào)整產(chǎn)業(yè)結(jié)構(gòu)以實(shí)現(xiàn)經(jīng)濟(jì)增長(zhǎng)目標(biāo)和減少能源消耗目標(biāo),研究了產(chǎn)業(yè)結(jié)構(gòu)優(yōu)化過(guò)程。通過(guò)對(duì)經(jīng)濟(jì)增長(zhǎng)目標(biāo)和能源消耗目標(biāo)平等賦權(quán)將多目標(biāo)規(guī)劃模型轉(zhuǎn)化為單目標(biāo)規(guī)劃模型。優(yōu)化模型給出2016—2020年(“十三五”時(shí)期)的產(chǎn)業(yè)結(jié)構(gòu)調(diào)整方案。經(jīng)過(guò)產(chǎn)業(yè)結(jié)構(gòu)調(diào)整,預(yù)測(cè)到2020年云南省第一產(chǎn)業(yè)在國(guó)民經(jīng)濟(jì)中的比重下降到9.86%,第二產(chǎn)業(yè)占國(guó)民經(jīng)濟(jì)的比重下降到40.34%,第三產(chǎn)業(yè)在國(guó)民經(jīng)濟(jì)中的比重將顯著超過(guò)第二產(chǎn)業(yè)占到49.80%,成為云南省經(jīng)濟(jì)中的支柱產(chǎn)業(yè)。經(jīng)濟(jì)總量也從2012年的10309.4億元增長(zhǎng)到2020年的19283.9億元。產(chǎn)業(yè)結(jié)構(gòu)調(diào)整的節(jié)能減排潛力體現(xiàn)在整體經(jīng)濟(jì)能耗強(qiáng)度的降低。產(chǎn)業(yè)結(jié)構(gòu)調(diào)整能夠?qū)崿F(xiàn)云南省整體能耗從2012年的每萬(wàn)元GDP消耗1.0120噸標(biāo)煤下降到2020年的每萬(wàn)元GDP消耗0.6377噸標(biāo)煤。能源強(qiáng)度下降36.99%。結(jié)果表明,云南省“十三五”期間消耗的總能源只有59035.3萬(wàn)噸標(biāo)煤,如按2012年的能耗強(qiáng)度計(jì)算,可節(jié)約23543.13萬(wàn)噸標(biāo)煤。可見(jiàn)產(chǎn)業(yè)結(jié)構(gòu)調(diào)整有巨大的節(jié)能潛力。
[Abstract]:The massive amount of carbon dioxide emitted as a result of mass production continues to cast a shadow over global climate change.The rapid accumulation of carbon dioxide in the atmosphere will lead to a rise in temperature, which will disrupt the balance of the entire ecosystem when it spreads, with potentially catastrophic consequences.In order to avoid all this, it is necessary to control the increase in carbon dioxide emissions.China's annual carbon dioxide emissions account for a large share of the world, so the international community has a strong incentive to constantly put pressure on our country.Our country is in the economic growth stage, the industrial structure is growing rapidly, and the extensive economic growth mode of our country is often criticized by people, under this kind of growth mode, the healthy and benign economic structure is often not formed.Therefore, in order to achieve sustained economic growth, it is necessary to change the mode of economic growth, adjust the industrial structure, and realize the optimization of industrial structure.This process means reconfiguring resources to increase economic efficiency as well as energy efficiency, which can play a role in curbing carbon emissions.This paper aims at carbon emission reduction in Yunnan Province, guides other resources to reconfigure among industries through energy resources, guides the adjustment of industrial structure, and releases the potential of carbon emission reduction.In this paper, the factors affecting carbon emissions in Yunnan Province are analyzed. The main reason for the increase of carbon emissions is the sustained growth of energy demand from economic growth, and technological progress, industrial structure.Energy mix can be a reason to curb carbon emissions.The technology progress has obvious emission reduction effect, but the industrial structure has no obvious emission reduction effect.Three major sectors, such as the chemical industry, the non-metallic mineral products industry and the metal products manufacturing sector, are the main energy-consuming sectors and therefore the main sources of carbon emissions.Their ratio to GDP in Yunnan Province in 2014 was 10.76 percent, with carbon dioxide emissions accounting for 66.09 percent of total emissions.Although the corresponding relationship between the output value of each industry and its carbon emissions is generally different, to a large extent, it is caused by the technical characteristics of the industry itself.But industries like Yunnan, where the contrast between output and carbon emissions are strong, still reflect the irrational structure of the industry.Based on the input-output model, this paper studies the process of industrial structure optimization by adjusting the industrial structure to achieve the goal of economic growth and reduce energy consumption.The multi-objective programming model is transformed into a single-objective programming model by equal empowerment of economic growth target and energy consumption goal.The optimization model gives the industrial structure adjustment scheme in 2016-2020 (the period of the 13th Five-Year Plan).After readjusting the industrial structure,It is predicted that by 2020, the proportion of the primary industry in the national economy of Yunnan Province will drop to 9.86, the proportion of the secondary industry to the national economy will drop to 40.34, and the proportion of the tertiary industry in the national economy will be significantly higher than that of the secondary industry at 49.80, which will become Yunnan Province.The pillar industry in the provincial economy.The total economic volume also increased from 1.03094 trillion yuan in 2012 to 1.92839 trillion yuan in 2020.The energy saving and emission reduction potential of industrial structure adjustment is reflected in the reduction of energy consumption intensity of the whole economy.The adjustment of industrial structure can reduce the total energy consumption of Yunnan province from 1.0120 tons of standard coal per 10,000 yuan of GDP in 2012 to 0.6377 tons of standard coal per 10,000 yuan of GDP in 2020.Energy intensity dropped by 36.99.The results show that the total energy consumption in Yunnan Province during the 13th Five-Year Plan period is only 590.353 million tons of standard coal, if calculated according to the energy consumption intensity in 2012, 235.4313 million tons of standard coal can be saved.Visible industrial structure adjustment has huge energy-saving potential.
【學(xué)位授予單位】：云南財(cái)經(jīng)大學(xué)
【學(xué)位級(jí)別】：碩士
【學(xué)位授予年份】：2017
【分類(lèi)號(hào)】：F121.3;X322

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