本文選題：FDI　切入點(diǎn)：出口對(duì)外依存度　出處：《北京交通大學(xué)》2015年碩士論文　論文類型：學(xué)位論文

【摘要】：根據(jù)商務(wù)部網(wǎng)站統(tǒng)計(jì)數(shù)據(jù),截至2013年年底,全國(guó)累計(jì)批準(zhǔn)設(shè)立外商投資企業(yè)786051個(gè),實(shí)際使用外資金額13937億美元�？梢赃@樣說,改革開放不斷深入的過程同時(shí)也是民族工業(yè)面對(duì)外國(guó)資本日趨激烈的競(jìng)爭(zhēng)過程,巨額的外資數(shù)額,給我國(guó)經(jīng)濟(jì)發(fā)展帶來了不可替代的促進(jìn)作用,但同時(shí)也給我國(guó)產(chǎn)業(yè)帶來了安全隱患。外商直接投資的增加,將會(huì)影響我國(guó)產(chǎn)業(yè)對(duì)外依存度,而產(chǎn)業(yè)對(duì)外依存度是產(chǎn)業(yè)安全的評(píng)價(jià)指標(biāo)之一。我國(guó)產(chǎn)業(yè)對(duì)外依存度近些年一直處于較高的水平,過高的對(duì)外依存度會(huì)使得出口與國(guó)內(nèi)經(jīng)濟(jì)的聯(lián)系不緊密,從而導(dǎo)致出口結(jié)構(gòu)升級(jí)對(duì)國(guó)內(nèi)企業(yè)帶動(dòng)作用小,進(jìn)而致使出口結(jié)構(gòu)升級(jí)變化對(duì)國(guó)內(nèi)產(chǎn)業(yè)結(jié)構(gòu)升級(jí)和技術(shù)進(jìn)步作用的影響有限,貿(mào)易對(duì)經(jīng)濟(jì)增長(zhǎng)的拉動(dòng)作用減弱,還會(huì)在技術(shù)上形成對(duì)國(guó)際市場(chǎng)的長(zhǎng)期依賴。 本文采用實(shí)證分析,發(fā)現(xiàn)產(chǎn)業(yè)進(jìn)口對(duì)外依存度、外商直接投資和實(shí)際有效匯率指數(shù)之間存在著協(xié)整關(guān)系,產(chǎn)業(yè)出口對(duì)外依存度、外商直接投資和實(shí)際有效匯率指數(shù)之間也存在協(xié)整關(guān)系,通過格蘭杰因果關(guān)系檢驗(yàn),發(fā)現(xiàn)外商直接投資和實(shí)際有效匯率指數(shù)是產(chǎn)業(yè)進(jìn)口對(duì)外依存度和產(chǎn)業(yè)出口對(duì)外依存度的格蘭杰原因。即外商直接投資、實(shí)際有效匯率指數(shù)的變化能引起產(chǎn)業(yè)進(jìn)口對(duì)外依存度和產(chǎn)業(yè)出口對(duì)外依存度的變化。長(zhǎng)期均衡結(jié)果表明,外商直接投資的增加可以小幅度的降低我國(guó)產(chǎn)業(yè)出口對(duì)外依存度,較大程度的增加我國(guó)進(jìn)口對(duì)外依存度。利用誤差修正模型對(duì)模型進(jìn)行修正,發(fā)現(xiàn)短期內(nèi),滯后一期的FDI對(duì)進(jìn)出口對(duì)外依存度有正向影響,滯后二期的FDI對(duì)當(dāng)期進(jìn)出口對(duì)外依存度有負(fù)向影響,并且影響程度要大于滯后一期FDI的影響,總體而言,短期內(nèi)FDI對(duì)進(jìn)出口對(duì)外依存度為負(fù)向影響。本文利用比較分析法來研究FDI對(duì)資本對(duì)外依存度和技術(shù)對(duì)外依存度的影響,通過比較發(fā)現(xiàn),FDI的增加還是會(huì)提高我國(guó)資本對(duì)外依存度的。在研究技術(shù)對(duì)外依存度時(shí),我們分別計(jì)算了將外資企業(yè)的RD算為我國(guó)RD,將外資企業(yè)的RD算為技術(shù)引進(jìn)費(fèi)用兩種情況,比較可以發(fā)現(xiàn),雖然我國(guó)技術(shù)對(duì)外依存度有逐年下降的趨勢(shì),但是考慮到外資企業(yè)的對(duì)外技術(shù)依存度比沒有考慮外資企業(yè)的技術(shù)對(duì)外依存度要高很大,變化也要相對(duì)緩和一些。即資本和技術(shù)對(duì)國(guó)外的實(shí)際依賴程度是隨著外商直接投資的增加而變大的�？傮w來說,我國(guó)產(chǎn)業(yè)對(duì)外依存度還很高,雖然近幾年在緩慢下降,但還是會(huì)對(duì)我國(guó)產(chǎn)業(yè)安全造成隱患,因此我國(guó)引進(jìn)外商直接投資時(shí)需要謹(jǐn)慎。
[Abstract]:According to statistics on the website of the Ministry of Commerce, by the end of 2013, the country had approved the establishment of 786,051 foreign-invested enterprises, with the actual amount of foreign investment being one trillion three hundred and ninety-three billion seven hundred million US dollars. At the same time, the process of deepening reform and opening up is also the process of the national industry facing the increasingly fierce competition of foreign capital. The huge amount of foreign capital has brought irreplaceable impetus to the economic development of our country. But at the same time, it also brings security risks to our industries. The increase in foreign direct investment will affect the degree of dependence of our industries on foreign affairs. The degree of industrial dependence on foreign countries is one of the evaluation indicators of industrial safety. In recent years, China's degree of industrial dependence on foreign countries has been at a relatively high level, and too high a degree of dependence on foreign countries will make exports less closely related to the domestic economy. As a result, the upgrading of export structure has little effect on domestic enterprises, which leads to the limited impact of the upgrading of export structure on the upgrading of domestic industrial structure and technological progress, and the weakening of the pulling effect of trade on economic growth. It will also form a long-term dependence on the international market. Based on the empirical analysis, we find that there is a cointegration relationship between the industrial import dependence, FDI and the real effective exchange rate index, and the industrial export dependence degree. There is also a cointegration relationship between FDI and the real effective exchange rate index, which is tested by Granger causality. It is found that FDI and the real effective exchange rate index are the Granger reasons for the degree of dependence of industrial imports and industrial exports. The change of the real effective exchange rate index can cause changes in the degree of dependence of industrial imports and industrial exports. The long-term equilibrium results show that the increase of foreign direct investment can reduce the degree of foreign dependence of China's industrial exports by a small margin. Using the error correction model to modify the model, it is found that, in the short term, the delayed FDI has a positive effect on the degree of import and export dependence. The delayed phase of FDI has a negative effect on the degree of external dependence of import and export in the current period, and the influence degree is greater than that of the lag phase of FDI. In general, In the short term, FDI has a negative effect on the degree of external dependence of import and export. This paper uses comparative analysis to study the influence of FDI on the degree of dependence on capital and technology. It is found by comparison that the increase of FDI will increase the degree of foreign dependence on foreign capital of our country. When we study the degree of dependence on foreign capital, we calculate the R D of foreign-funded enterprises as RDs and R D of foreign-funded enterprises as the cost of technology introduction. In comparison, it can be found that, although the degree of technological dependence on foreign countries in China has a downward trend year by year, considering that the degree of dependence on foreign technology of foreign-funded enterprises is higher than that of foreign-funded enterprises, The changes should also be relatively moderate. That is, the degree of actual dependence of capital and technology on foreign countries has increased with the increase of foreign direct investment. In general, the degree of industrial dependence on foreign countries in China is still very high, although in recent years it has been declining slowly. But it will cause hidden trouble to industry safety of our country, so we should be careful when introducing foreign direct investment.
【學(xué)位授予單位】：北京交通大學(xué)
【學(xué)位級(jí)別】：碩士
【學(xué)位授予年份】：2015
【分類號(hào)】：F832.6;F121.3

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