本文選題：城鎮(zhèn)化　切入點：房地產(chǎn)庫存　出處：《東北財經(jīng)大學》2016年碩士論文　論文類型：學位論文

【摘要】：住房制度改革結(jié)束了我國福利分房制度,居民住房需求得以釋放。國務(wù)院于2003年出臺《關(guān)于促進房地產(chǎn)市場持續(xù)健康發(fā)展的通知》,房地產(chǎn)業(yè)作為國民經(jīng)濟支柱產(chǎn)業(yè)的地位得以確立。房地產(chǎn)業(yè)開啟了快速發(fā)展之路,房地產(chǎn)投資由2003年的10154億元增至2015年的95979億元。房地產(chǎn)業(yè)的快速發(fā)展直接帶動了宏觀經(jīng)濟的繁榮,GDP總量由2003年13.6萬億元增長至2015年67.7萬億元,年復合增速約14%。與此同時,我國城鎮(zhèn)化水平不斷提高,城鎮(zhèn)化率由2003年40.5%增長到2015年的56.1%,年均增長約1.3個百分點。經(jīng)濟的快速發(fā)展為城鎮(zhèn)化和房地產(chǎn)業(yè)的發(fā)展提供強大的動力,房地產(chǎn)業(yè)為城鎮(zhèn)化建設(shè)提供載體,城鎮(zhèn)化則為房地產(chǎn)業(yè)帶來大量需求,城鎮(zhèn)化和房地產(chǎn)業(yè)反過來促進經(jīng)濟發(fā)展,三者互融共生、相互促進。但是,房地產(chǎn)業(yè)與城鎮(zhèn)化存在發(fā)展不協(xié)調(diào)的問題,城鎮(zhèn)化過分強調(diào)人口數(shù)量的城鎮(zhèn)化、土地規(guī)模的城鎮(zhèn)化,房地產(chǎn)則出現(xiàn)投資過快、價格偏高等問題,二者不相適應(yīng)。隨著房地產(chǎn)價格的不斷攀升,居住性房地產(chǎn)需求被抑制,投資性需求不斷擴大,政府對房地產(chǎn)業(yè)進行宏觀調(diào)控,試圖降低房地產(chǎn)價格以減少投資性需求、促進民生,但由于土地財政、GDP考核機制等因素影響,調(diào)控效果并不顯著,房地產(chǎn)投資不斷增加,房地產(chǎn)價格有增無減,商品房供給逐漸大于需求,最終導致房地產(chǎn)庫存高企。2015年年底,商品房(現(xiàn)房)待售面積約7.2億平方米,期房待售面積約25.1億平方米,按照2015年商品房年銷售面積計算,商品房(現(xiàn)房)去化周期約為6.7個月,廣義商品房(期房、現(xiàn)房)去化周期約為30.2個月,嚴重超出合理的消化周期(18個月)。嚴重的商品房庫存積壓抑制了房地產(chǎn)開發(fā)投資,拖累了中國經(jīng)濟。2015年中央經(jīng)濟工作會議以及2016年政府工作報告均提及房地產(chǎn)去庫存,房地產(chǎn)去庫存已經(jīng)上升為國家戰(zhàn)略。房地產(chǎn)業(yè)發(fā)展的最大動力是城鎮(zhèn)化,但城鎮(zhèn)化與房地產(chǎn)業(yè)之間存在發(fā)展不協(xié)調(diào)的現(xiàn)象。本文基于城鎮(zhèn)化與房地產(chǎn)業(yè)發(fā)展的"度"的視角,定性、定量分析房地產(chǎn)庫存高企的成因。首先,借鑒國內(nèi)外已有研究文獻,確定研究思路;其次,梳理我國城鎮(zhèn)化發(fā)展歷程,將城鎮(zhèn)化歷程劃分為兩大階段:城鎮(zhèn)化起步階段(1949～1995年)和城鎮(zhèn)化成長階段(1996～2015年),通過梳理各階段城鎮(zhèn)化發(fā)展歷程,發(fā)現(xiàn)我國城鎮(zhèn)化雖然取得了快速的發(fā)展,但也面臨著城鎮(zhèn)化質(zhì)量不高、城鎮(zhèn)土地擴張嚴重、產(chǎn)業(yè)發(fā)展不足等問題;第三,梳理我國房地產(chǎn)業(yè)發(fā)展歷程,分析我國房地產(chǎn)發(fā)展概況及商品房庫存現(xiàn)狀;第四,引進聚集經(jīng)濟理論、區(qū)位發(fā)展理論、產(chǎn)業(yè)發(fā)展理論,理論分析城鎮(zhèn)化與房地產(chǎn)業(yè)之間的相互作用,發(fā)現(xiàn)城鎮(zhèn)化與房地產(chǎn)業(yè)之間相互促進、共同發(fā)展;第五,根據(jù)因子分析原理,運用SPSS18.0量化分析城鎮(zhèn)化和房地產(chǎn)業(yè)的綜合發(fā)展水平,結(jié)果表明,我國城鎮(zhèn)化和房地產(chǎn)業(yè)發(fā)展存在區(qū)域失衡、發(fā)展緩慢的問題;第六,構(gòu)建城鎮(zhèn)化與房地產(chǎn)業(yè)之間的耦合協(xié)調(diào)度模型,從橫向和縱向兩個角度分析我國城鎮(zhèn)化與房地產(chǎn)業(yè)之間的耦合協(xié)調(diào)度,研究表明我國城鎮(zhèn)化與房地產(chǎn)業(yè)不協(xié)調(diào)現(xiàn)象較為嚴重,2014年僅有12省市處于協(xié)調(diào)狀態(tài),而且協(xié)調(diào)度水平均較低,縱向上,大部分省市城鎮(zhèn)化與房地產(chǎn)業(yè)協(xié)調(diào)性不斷提高,但增長緩慢;最后,構(gòu)建房地產(chǎn)庫存去化周期面板數(shù)據(jù)模型,實證分析房地產(chǎn)庫存去化周期的影響因素。研究表明,城鎮(zhèn)化與房地產(chǎn)業(yè)協(xié)調(diào)度每增加0.1,房地產(chǎn)去化周期將顯著下降2.4個月;商品房價格每下降1000元,商品房去化周期將減少0.3個月;人口城鎮(zhèn)化率提高將增加房地產(chǎn)去化周期,主要原因可能是我國人口城鎮(zhèn)化率存在較大的水分,并不能準確地反映我國真實的城鎮(zhèn)化水平,所以,應(yīng)著力提高戶籍人口城鎮(zhèn)化率,實施戶籍制度改革,切實提高我國的城鎮(zhèn)化水平�；夥康禺a(chǎn)庫存高企的根本方法是要增加城鎮(zhèn)化與房地產(chǎn)業(yè)之間的協(xié)調(diào)性,鑒于此,本文提出以下建議:第一,積極落實戶籍制度改革,真正實現(xiàn)以人為本的城鎮(zhèn)化;第二,推進住房租賃市場建設(shè),構(gòu)建多層次的住房供應(yīng)體系,實現(xiàn)房地產(chǎn)業(yè)健康發(fā)展;第三,適當降低商品房價格以增加商品房消費,加快房地產(chǎn)庫存去化。
[Abstract]:The reform of the housing system the end of our welfare housing system, the housing needs to be released. In 2003 the State Council issued "on promoting the sustained and healthy development of the real estate market notification on, the real estate industry as a pillar industry of the national economy. The establishment of the position of the real estate industry has opened the road of rapid development, the real estate investment by 10154 in 2003 billion yuan in 2015 to 95979 yuan. The rapid development of real estate industry directly led to the macro economic prosperity, the total GDP from 2003 to 13 trillion and 600 billion yuan in 2015 increased to 67 trillion and 700 billion yuan, the annual compound growth rate of about 14%. at the same time, the increasing level of urbanization in China, the urbanization rate increased from 40.5% in 2003 to 56.1% in 2015, an average annual growth rate about 1.3 percentage points. The rapid development of the economy provides a strong impetus for the urbanization and the development of the real estate industry, the real estate industry to urbanization provide carrier, urbanization Bring a large demand for the real estate industry, the urbanization and the real estate industry in promoting economic development, the three mutually melt symbiosis and mutual promotion. However, the real estate industry and urbanization development coordination problems, too much emphasis on urbanization population urbanization, land urbanization scale, real estate investment too fast, high price, the two do not adapt. With the real estate prices rising, residential real estate demand is suppressed, investment demand continues to expand, the government's macro-control of the real estate industry, trying to reduce the real estate prices in order to reduce the investment demand, and promote the people's livelihood, but due to land finance the influence factors of GDP, assessment mechanism, control effect is not significant, the real estate investment is increasing, the real estate price increase, commercial housing supply is more than demand, eventually leading to the end of the real estate inventory high.2015, commodity Real (Xianfang) for sale area of about 720 million square meters, forward delivery housing for sale area of about 2 billion 510 million square meters, in 2015 annual sales area of commercial housing, commercial housing (Xianfang) to a period of about 6.7 months, general commercial housing (forward delivery housing to cycle, Xianfang) for about 30.2 months, serious beyond reasonable digestion period (18 months). Serious commercial housing inventory backlog inhibits investment in real estate development, dragged down economic Chinese.2015 central economic work conference and the 2016 government work report mentions the real estate inventory, real estate stock has risen to national strategy. The maximum power of real estate development is urbanization. But the development of uncoordinated phenomena between the urbanization and the real estate industry. The urbanization and the development of the real estate industry "degree" perspective, based on the qualitative analysis, the causes of high inventory of real estate quantitatively. Firstly, the research at home and abroad in China by Xian, determine the research ideas; secondly, combing the development of China's urbanization process, the urbanization process is divided into two stages: the initial stage of urbanization (1949~1995 years) and urbanization growth stage (1996~2015 years), through the development of various stages of urbanization, found that although China's urbanization has made rapid development, but also facing the urbanization quality is not high, a serious problem of urban land expansion, industrial development is insufficient; third, combing the development process of China's real estate industry, analysis of China's real estate development and commercial housing inventory situation; fourth, the introduction of agglomeration economy theory, regional development theory and Industry development theory, theoretical analysis of mutual interaction between urbanization and the real estate industry, found between urbanization and real estate industry mutual promotion and common development; fifth, according to the principle of factor analysis, using SPSS18.0 quantitative analysis of urbanization and the real estate industry in The results show that the level of development, China's urbanization and the development of the real estate industry in regional imbalance, the problem of slow development; sixth, construct the coupling between urbanization and real estate industry coordination model, analysis of coupling coordination of China's urbanization and the real estate industry between two from horizontal and vertical perspective. Research shows that with the real estate industry of our country town uncoordinated phenomenon is more serious, in 2014 only 12 provinces and cities in coordination state, and coordination degree are low, vertically, most of the provinces in the urbanization and the real estate industry coordination continues to improve, but slow growth; finally, the construction of real estate inventory to cycle panel data model an empirical analysis of the impact factors, the real estate inventory to cycle. The study shows that the urbanization and the real estate industry coordination degree increased 0.1, the real estate cycle to 2.4 months will be decreased significantly; commercial housing prices fell 1000 yuan each, taking The real goods to cycle will be reduced by 0.3 months; population urbanization rate will increase to improve the real estate cycle, the main reason may be the population of our country's urbanization rate of water, so does not accurately reflect the level of urbanization in China, the real, efforts should be made to improve the household population urbanization rate. The implementation of the reform of the household registration system, and effectively improve the level of urbanization in our country. The basic method to resolve the real estate inventory high prices is to increase the coordination between urbanization and real estate industry in view of this, this paper puts forward the following suggestions: first, actively implement the reform of the household registration system, realize human centered urbanization; second, promote the construction of the rental housing market, the construction of multi-level housing supply system, to realize the healthy development of the real estate industry; third, due to lower commercial housing prices to increase commercial housing consumption, speed up the real estate inventory to.

【學位授予單位】：東北財經(jīng)大學
【學位級別】：碩士
【學位授予年份】：2016
【分類號】：F299.23;F299.21

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