本文選題：可持續(xù)發(fā)展　切入點(diǎn)：循環(huán)經(jīng)濟(jì)產(chǎn)業(yè)鏈　出處：《蘭州大學(xué)》2015年碩士論文　論文類型：學(xué)位論文

【摘要】：隨著人類社會(huì)的整體發(fā)展,全球人口總量激增,整體生活品質(zhì)也隨之提升,由此,人類對(duì)生存空間、發(fā)展資源提出越來越多的需求。但是,有限的空間、資源,與無限的“原材料一產(chǎn)品——廢棄物”線性經(jīng)濟(jì)發(fā)展模式存在著顯著的矛盾,所以,急需改變傳統(tǒng)的“三高一低”的粗放式經(jīng)濟(jì)發(fā)展模式,通過構(gòu)建可持續(xù)發(fā)展戰(zhàn)略,合理化開發(fā)利用有限的自然資源,在確保經(jīng)濟(jì)發(fā)展勢(shì)頭的同時(shí),避免對(duì)整個(gè)地球生態(tài)系統(tǒng)造成不可逆轉(zhuǎn)的破壞。本文主要依據(jù)可持續(xù)發(fā)展理念、循環(huán)經(jīng)濟(jì)理念、循環(huán)經(jīng)濟(jì)產(chǎn)業(yè)鏈相關(guān)理論及系統(tǒng)動(dòng)力學(xué)基本理論,借鑒國內(nèi)外相關(guān)領(lǐng)域構(gòu)建系統(tǒng)動(dòng)力學(xué)模型的實(shí)踐經(jīng)驗(yàn),在系統(tǒng)分析成熟工業(yè)體系實(shí)情的基礎(chǔ)上,以Vensim PLE軟件為核心構(gòu)建基于系統(tǒng)動(dòng)力學(xué)的循環(huán)經(jīng)濟(jì)產(chǎn)業(yè)鏈模型進(jìn)行模擬分析。本文主要研究目的包括：通過構(gòu)建關(guān)聯(lián)性系統(tǒng)動(dòng)力學(xué)模型,以加強(qiáng)對(duì)影響循環(huán)經(jīng)濟(jì)產(chǎn)業(yè)鏈節(jié)點(diǎn)的各個(gè)因素重要性及其相互間關(guān)系的理解；通過調(diào)整模型內(nèi)含公式、參數(shù),進(jìn)行對(duì)比分析研究,初步量化分析構(gòu)建循環(huán)經(jīng)濟(jì)產(chǎn)業(yè)鏈前后產(chǎn)業(yè)鏈節(jié)點(diǎn)效益的差別；輔助理解企業(yè)主動(dòng)承擔(dān)相應(yīng)的社會(huì)責(zé)任,構(gòu)建循環(huán)經(jīng)濟(jì)產(chǎn)業(yè)鏈處理傳統(tǒng)廢棄物,有助于其樹立更為積極的企業(yè)形象、提升自身的軟實(shí)力,并能轉(zhuǎn)化直接、間接的為經(jīng)濟(jì)效益；在此基礎(chǔ)上,進(jìn)一步研究新建工業(yè)園區(qū)的基本狀況,以其核心循環(huán)經(jīng)濟(jì)產(chǎn)業(yè)鏈為研究對(duì)象,模擬其近期及遠(yuǎn)期的實(shí)際運(yùn)行狀況,探究其各級(jí)節(jié)點(diǎn)的發(fā)展關(guān)聯(lián)性,為工業(yè)園區(qū)擬定發(fā)展戰(zhàn)略提供參考意見。本文以甘肅省酒鋼集團(tuán)成熟工業(yè)體系為例,通過Vensim PLE軟件建模并仿真模擬,對(duì)比分析可知：預(yù)計(jì)未來五年酒鋼集團(tuán)鐵、鋼坯產(chǎn)量的五年總增長幅度為9.13%,6.60%,分別低于改造后鐵、鋼坯產(chǎn)量的未來五年總增長幅度的19.16%,10.41%;循環(huán)經(jīng)濟(jì)產(chǎn)業(yè)鏈前后尾礦廢石五年總增長幅度分別為1.83,1.28。在此基礎(chǔ)上,以內(nèi)蒙古新建的MS工業(yè)園區(qū)整體循環(huán)經(jīng)濟(jì)產(chǎn)業(yè)鏈為例,通過VensimPLE軟件建模并模擬,分析其產(chǎn)業(yè)鏈的節(jié)點(diǎn)發(fā)展聯(lián)動(dòng)效益,以說明構(gòu)建循環(huán)經(jīng)濟(jì)產(chǎn)業(yè)鏈對(duì)產(chǎn)業(yè)集群的影響,并預(yù)測其發(fā)展趨勢(shì),為其進(jìn)一步發(fā)展提供參考意見。
[Abstract]:With the overall development of human society, the global population increase, the overall quality of life are increasing, thus, human living space, the development of resources put forward more and more requirements. However, the limited space, resources, economy and development model of linear infinite "raw materials products - waste" significant contradiction. So, it needs to change the traditional "three high and one low" extensive mode of economic development, through the construction of the strategy of sustainable development, rational development and utilization of limited natural resources, in order to ensure the momentum of economic development at the same time, avoid to cause irreversible damage to the earth's ecological system. This paper mainly focuses on the concept of sustainable development, the concept of circular economy, circulation economy industrial chain theory and system dynamics theory, drawing on relevant areas at home and abroad to build a system dynamics model of the practical experience in the system Based on the mature industrial system of truth, with Vensim PLE software as the core of the simulation analysis of the circular economy industrial chain model based on system dynamics. The purpose of this research mainly includes: through the construction of related system dynamics model, in order to strengthen the effect of various factors on the importance of circular economy industry chain nodes and the relationship between the understanding; the adjustment of model parameters, including the formula, makes a comparative analysis on the difference between construction node benefit of the industrial chain and industrial chain of circular economy analysis preliminary quantization; auxiliary to understand the enterprise bear the social responsibility initiative, building a circular economy industrial chain of traditional processing waste, help to establish a more positive corporate image, enhance its soft power, and can be transformed directly, indirect economic benefit; on this basis, the further research of new industrial park shaped base In the condition, the core of circular economy industrial chain as the research object, the actual operation situation of simulation of the short-term and long-term development, to explore the relevance of various nodes, which provides a reference for the industrial park development strategy. This paper takes Gansu province Jiuquan Steel Group mature industrial system as an example, through the Vensim PLE software modeling and simulation. The contrast analysis shows that: the next five years is expected to Jiuquan Steel Group iron, billet yield of five of total annual growth rate of 9.13%, 6.60%, respectively, lower than the transformation of iron, billet yield in the next five years the total growth rate of 19.16%, 10.41%; circulation economy industrial chain ring before and after five years the growth rate of total tailings and waste rocks respectively on the basis of 1.83,1.28. on the circular economy industrial chain overall new Inner Mongolia MS Industrial Park as an example, through the VensimPLE software modeling and simulation, node linkage development benefit analysis of the industrial chain, to illustrate the construction cycle The impact of the economic industrial chain on industrial clusters, and forecast its development trend, provide reference for its further development.

【學(xué)位授予單位】：蘭州大學(xué)
【學(xué)位級(jí)別】：碩士
【學(xué)位授予年份】：2015
【分類號(hào)】：F426.31;TP391.9

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