本文關鍵詞： 人民幣ODI 逆向技術溢出 理論邏輯 產業(yè)結構升級　出處：《南昌大學》2016年碩士論文　論文類型：學位論文

【摘要】：國際金融危機之后,美國等發(fā)達國家發(fā)現(xiàn)產業(yè)“空心化”對本國經濟發(fā)展的嚴重危害性,因而提出了重塑制造業(yè)以優(yōu)化產業(yè)結構的再工業(yè)化戰(zhàn)略,這為我國對外直接投資提供了難得的發(fā)展機遇。近些年來,隨著我國“走出去”戰(zhàn)略的深化發(fā)展,我國ODI規(guī)模大幅提升,增長速度超過外資流入。如何計算與評價人民幣ODI對中國產業(yè)結構優(yōu)化調整的影響程度,已日漸成為國內學者關注的熱點,因而本文研究具有重要的現(xiàn)實意義。本文首先梳理了現(xiàn)有的國內外關于對外直接投資影響產業(yè)結構的相關文獻,在產業(yè)結構優(yōu)化以及對外直接投資逆向技術溢出效應的相關概念和內涵的理論基礎之上,從對外直接投資的母國產業(yè)結構調整正、負效應兩個方面入手,初步分析人民幣ODI對本國產業(yè)結構升級的影響。其次,對人民幣ODI的歷史演進和現(xiàn)狀進行歸納分析,發(fā)現(xiàn)人民幣ODI的資金流向存在行業(yè)和區(qū)域分布不均的特點。接著文章從對外直接投資的動因視角,演繹人民幣ODI促進本國產業(yè)結構升級的內在邏輯機理。在前文的理論基礎之上,本文實證部分構建了人民幣ODI影響中國產業(yè)結構升級的計量模型,以Eviews 6.0計量軟件為依托,通過協(xié)整檢驗、回歸分析和脈沖響應回歸等研究方法,實證檢驗了人民幣ODI對中國產業(yè)結構高度化這一衡量指標的影響。最終發(fā)現(xiàn)人民幣ODI與中國產業(yè)結構高度化之間存在長期的均衡關系,且從從長期來看,人民幣ODI是中國產業(yè)結構高度化進程的格蘭杰原因,人民幣ODI對中國產業(yè)結構升級具有正向促進作用。最后,在理論分析、實證分析的基礎之上,本文就如何發(fā)揮人民幣ODI對產業(yè)結構的影響,推動中國產業(yè)結構優(yōu)化升級提出了相關政策建議。
[Abstract]:After the international financial crisis, the developed countries, such as the United States, discovered the serious harm of industrial hollowing to their economic development, and put forward the strategy of reindustrializing the manufacturing industry in order to optimize the industrial structure. In recent years, with the deepening development of China's "going out" strategy, China's ODI scale has greatly increased. The growth rate exceeds the inflow of foreign capital. How to calculate and evaluate the impact of RMB ODI on the optimization and adjustment of China's industrial structure has become a hot topic for domestic scholars. Therefore, the study of this paper has important practical significance. Firstly, this paper combs the existing literature on the influence of foreign direct investment on industrial structure at home and abroad. Based on the theory of industrial structure optimization and the related concepts and connotations of reverse technology spillover effect of FDI, this paper starts with the positive and negative effects of the adjustment of the home country's industrial structure of FDI. This paper preliminarily analyzes the impact of RMB ODI on the upgrading of domestic industrial structure. Secondly, the historical evolution and current situation of RMB ODI are summarized and analyzed. It is found that the capital flow of RMB ODI is uneven in industry and region. Then, from the perspective of the motivation of OFDI, This paper deduces the internal logical mechanism of RMB ODI promoting the upgrading of China's industrial structure. On the basis of the previous theories, the empirical part of this paper constructs the econometric model of RMB ODI influencing the upgrading of China's industrial structure, which is based on the software of Eviews 6.0. Through cointegration test, regression analysis and impulse response regression, This paper empirically tests the impact of RMB ODI on China's industrial structure elevation. Finally, it is found that there is a long-term equilibrium relationship between RMB ODI and China's industrial structure elevation, and in the long run, RMB ODI is the Granger cause of China's industrial structure upgrading. RMB ODI has a positive effect on the upgrading of China's industrial structure. Finally, on the basis of theoretical analysis and empirical analysis, RMB ODI plays a positive role in promoting the upgrading of China's industrial structure. This paper puts forward some policy suggestions on how to exert the influence of RMB ODI on the industrial structure and promote the optimization and upgrading of China's industrial structure.
【學位授予單位】：南昌大學
【學位級別】：碩士
【學位授予年份】：2016
【分類號】：F832.6

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本文編號：1543229