本文關(guān)鍵詞： 對外直接投資 產(chǎn)業(yè)結(jié)構(gòu)優(yōu)化升級 企業(yè)走出去　出處：《東北財經(jīng)大學》2016年碩士論文　論文類型：學位論文

【摘要】：中國自改革開放以來,經(jīng)濟發(fā)展的成果舉世矚目,跨國資本流動也日益頻繁,從"引進來"到"走出去",中國對外直接投資突飛猛進,成功躋身世界第三大投資國,到2015年末,中國對外直接投資的存量規(guī)模首次跨越萬億美元的大關(guān),保持了連續(xù)13年增長。同時中國經(jīng)濟發(fā)展進入新常態(tài),要求穩(wěn)增長調(diào)結(jié)構(gòu),而國內(nèi)產(chǎn)業(yè)升級緩慢、效益低下的現(xiàn)象日益凸顯,中國尚處于國際生產(chǎn)價值鏈的底層環(huán)節(jié),存在促進產(chǎn)業(yè)結(jié)構(gòu)升級的內(nèi)在動力和外在壓力。在這兩大背景下,如何合理地利用蓬勃發(fā)展的對外直接投資促進國內(nèi)產(chǎn)業(yè)結(jié)構(gòu)的優(yōu)化升級,具有重要的理論與現(xiàn)實意義。以往的研究多關(guān)注于對外直接投資對東道國產(chǎn)業(yè)結(jié)構(gòu)的影響,且大部分是基于發(fā)達國家的先行經(jīng)驗而總結(jié)得出結(jié)論,缺乏系統(tǒng)的關(guān)于發(fā)展中國家對外直接投資影響國內(nèi)產(chǎn)業(yè)升級的效應研究,對中國的研究多從理論視角,較少實證分析。本文對比分析了國內(nèi)外的相關(guān)理論和實證研究成果,將我國對外直接投資作為研究對象,分別從宏觀和微觀的理論視角,分析其對國內(nèi)產(chǎn)業(yè)結(jié)構(gòu)升級的影響和驅(qū)動機制;考慮現(xiàn)實國情,將對外直接投資、人均GDP、固定資產(chǎn)投資、進出口和研發(fā)經(jīng)費等多個可能影響我國產(chǎn)業(yè)結(jié)構(gòu)升級的變量引入模型,力求使研究更全面;既有全國范圍的時間序列數(shù)據(jù)檢驗,又有東部典型十省份的面板數(shù)據(jù)分析,使研究結(jié)果更具說服力。第一部分,首先梳理了國內(nèi)外相關(guān)的理論文獻,國內(nèi)外學者分別以發(fā)達經(jīng)濟體和不發(fā)達經(jīng)濟體作為研究對象,大多數(shù)得出結(jié)論認為對外直接投資對投資國的產(chǎn)業(yè)升級有積極影響,也有部分學者提出負面效應比如"產(chǎn)業(yè)空心化"理論。第二部分,分析中國對外直接投資的規(guī)模、行業(yè)和區(qū)位分布,以及當前國內(nèi)產(chǎn)業(yè)結(jié)構(gòu)的現(xiàn)狀特點和突出矛盾。第三部分,本文對相關(guān)概念進行界定,分別從宏微觀角度分析對外直接投資促進我國產(chǎn)業(yè)結(jié)構(gòu)升級的影響和驅(qū)動機制。宏觀方面,對外直接投資可以通過邊際產(chǎn)業(yè)轉(zhuǎn)移效應、產(chǎn)業(yè)關(guān)聯(lián)效應和產(chǎn)業(yè)內(nèi)競爭效應三個方面來影響產(chǎn)業(yè)結(jié)構(gòu)的優(yōu)化升級;微觀企業(yè)對外投資的行為按動因分為尋求資源、市場、效率和戰(zhàn)略資源,對國內(nèi)的產(chǎn)業(yè)結(jié)構(gòu)升級起到驅(qū)動作用。第四部分是實證檢驗,引入錢納里經(jīng)典"結(jié)構(gòu)增長"模型,從產(chǎn)業(yè)高度化角度構(gòu)建衡量產(chǎn)業(yè)結(jié)構(gòu)升級的指標,考慮現(xiàn)實國情,加入影響我國產(chǎn)業(yè)升級的各變量。首先根據(jù)全國1992-2014年的時間序列數(shù)據(jù)構(gòu)建VAR模型,通過脈沖響應分析和方差分解檢驗中國對外直接投資是否能夠促進本國的產(chǎn)業(yè)結(jié)構(gòu)升級,以及影響效應的強弱;接著根據(jù)2014年底對外直接投資存量排名前十的東部典型省份2003-2014年的省級面板數(shù)據(jù),進行局部重點的回歸分析,實證結(jié)果顯示:根據(jù)全國和東部典型省份的數(shù)據(jù)檢驗,中國對外直接投資對國內(nèi)產(chǎn)業(yè)升級都存在顯著的正向促進作用;在短期內(nèi)可以促進國內(nèi)產(chǎn)業(yè)結(jié)構(gòu)的高度化,隨著時間的推移效果逐漸增強并趨于穩(wěn)定;但相比于人均GDP和固定資產(chǎn)投資,對外直接投資影響的效應較弱,且存在一定的滯后期,這主要是由我國的對外直接投資起步晚、規(guī)模小導致的。第五部分是結(jié)論與政策建議,總結(jié)本文的理論和實證結(jié)論,提出政府應完善制度和政策法規(guī),提高對外直接投資的質(zhì)和量,引導企業(yè)對外直接投資的產(chǎn)業(yè)和區(qū)位選擇,推進投資主體多元化和投資方式多樣化,更好地發(fā)揮其對國內(nèi)產(chǎn)業(yè)結(jié)構(gòu)升級的促進作用。
[Abstract]:China since the reform and opening up, economic development has attracted worldwide attention, cross-border capital flows have become increasingly frequent, from the "Introduction" to "go out", Chinese foreign direct investment by leaps and bounds, success among the world's third largest investor in China, by the end of 2015, China foreign direct investment scale of stock for the first time across the trillion dollar mark, keep 13 years of continuous growth. At the same time China economic development has entered a new norm, requirements adjust the structure of steady growth, while domestic industrial upgrading slow, low efficiency of the phenomenon has become increasingly prominent, Chinese is still in the bottom part of the international production value chain, promoting internal motivation and external pressure to upgrade the industrial structure. In the two big background, how to reasonable use of foreign direct investment to promote the vigorous development of the optimization and upgrading of domestic industrial structure, has important theoretical and practical significance. Previous studies have paid much attention to foreign direct investment Foreign influence on the host country's industrial structure, and most of them are based on the experience of developed countries to summarize the conclusion, the lack of research on the effect of foreign direct investment in developing countries the impact of domestic industrial upgrading of the system, from the theoretical perspective on Chinese, less empirical analysis. This paper analyzes the domestic and foreign relevant theoretical and empirical research the results of China's foreign direct investment as the research object, from the macro and micro perspective, analyzes its influence on the upgrading of domestic industrial structure and driving mechanism; considering the actual situation, the foreign direct investment, per capita GDP, fixed assets investment, import and export and other R & D funds may affect the upgrading of China's industry the structure of the variable is introduced into the model to make the study more comprehensive; time series data has a nationwide test and panel data of ten provinces in Eastern typical points Analysis, make the results more convincing. The first part reviews the theoretical literature at home and abroad, the scholars at home and abroad in developed economies and developed economies as the research object, the majority concluded that foreign direct investment on investment in the country's industrial upgrading has a positive effect, some scholars put forward the negative effect such as "industry hollow" theory. The second part analysis China foreign direct investment scale, industry and regional distribution, and characteristics of the current situation of domestic industrial structure and prominent contradictions. The third part, this paper defines the related concepts, analysis of foreign direct investment from the macro and micro perspective promote the upgrading of China's industrial structure and driving mechanism. The macroscopic aspect, foreign direct investment can be transferred through the effect of marginal industry, industrial linkage effect and industrial competition effects three aspects to influence The upgrade and optimization of industry structure; micro enterprises and foreign investment behavior for press is divided into resource seeking, market efficiency, and strategic resources, to drive the upgrading of the industrial structure. The fourth part is the empirical test, the introduction of the classic "structural growth model's construction, measure the upgrading of the industrial structure from the perspective of industry height index considering the actual situation, the impact of each variable, with China's industrial upgrading. Firstly, according to the VAR model of time series data in China during 1992-2014, the impulse response analysis and variance decomposition test whether China foreign direct investment can promote the upgrading of the industrial structure of the country, and the effect of strength; then based on the provincial panel data of the eastern provinces in 2014 typical at the end of the stock of FDI ranked top ten in 2003-2014 years, focus on local regression analysis, the empirical results show that: according to the national And the typical eastern provinces inspection data, China foreign direct investment have a positive effect on promoting the upgrading of domestic industries; in the short term can promote the advancement of domestic industrial structure, with the passage of time effect increases gradually and tends to be stable; but compared to the per capita GDP and fixed asset investment, foreign direct investment influence effect is weak, and there is a certain lag, which is mainly composed of foreign direct investment in China started late, resulting in small scale. The fifth part is the conclusion and policy suggestions, this paper summarizes the theoretical and empirical conclusions, the government should improve the system of policies and regulations, improve the quality and quantity of foreign direct investment, industry and location the selection of guide enterprises of foreign direct investment, promote investment diversification and investment diversification, to better play its role in promoting the upgrading of the industrial structure.

【學位授予單位】：東北財經(jīng)大學
【學位級別】：碩士
【學位授予年份】：2016
【分類號】：F832.6

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