本文關(guān)鍵詞：我國人力資本及其空間分布對產(chǎn)業(yè)結(jié)構(gòu)升級影響研究　出處：《吉林大學(xué)》2017年博士論文　論文類型：學(xué)位論文

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【摘要】：關(guān)于人力資本的研究,更多關(guān)注其對經(jīng)濟增長的影響,涉及人力資本與產(chǎn)業(yè)結(jié)構(gòu)升級之間關(guān)系的研究相對較少。作為產(chǎn)業(yè)結(jié)構(gòu)升級的重要影響因素之一,人力資本不僅決定產(chǎn)業(yè)結(jié)構(gòu)升級的速度也對產(chǎn)業(yè)結(jié)構(gòu)轉(zhuǎn)型的方向有著重要影響。因而,應(yīng)該深入把握人力資本與產(chǎn)業(yè)結(jié)構(gòu)升級之間的關(guān)系。一方面,由于個體受教育程度、技能掌握情況和社會地位等因素的差異,人力資本會表現(xiàn)出明顯的異質(zhì)性特征。另一方面,人作為人力資本的載體,在不同區(qū)域間流動,會導(dǎo)致人力資本空間分布格局發(fā)生改變�；诖�,本文多角度、系統(tǒng)地研究我國人力資本及其空間分布對產(chǎn)業(yè)結(jié)構(gòu)升級的影響,主要研究內(nèi)容與相關(guān)結(jié)論如下:(1)本文首先基于總量人力資本視角,考察人力資本積累與資本深化對產(chǎn)業(yè)結(jié)構(gòu)升級的影響。通過構(gòu)建一個包含兩部門的產(chǎn)業(yè)結(jié)構(gòu)變遷模型,探討了人力資本積累與資本深化對產(chǎn)業(yè)結(jié)構(gòu)升級的作用機制,進(jìn)一步設(shè)定動態(tài)面板數(shù)據(jù)模型,利用系統(tǒng)GMM估計方法進(jìn)行實證分析。結(jié)果表明:人力資本積累與資本深化對我國產(chǎn)業(yè)結(jié)構(gòu)升級均具有顯著地推動作用,從作用強度來看,單位人力資本積累對產(chǎn)業(yè)結(jié)構(gòu)升級的作用效果要高于單位資本深化。此外,當(dāng)期產(chǎn)業(yè)結(jié)構(gòu)水平與上一期產(chǎn)業(yè)結(jié)構(gòu)水平表現(xiàn)出顯著正相關(guān)關(guān)系,表明產(chǎn)業(yè)結(jié)構(gòu)升級存在明顯的路徑依賴特征。我們還發(fā)現(xiàn),資本深化對產(chǎn)業(yè)結(jié)構(gòu)升級的影響存在人力資本門限效應(yīng),當(dāng)人力資本存量小于等于6.926時,資本深化對產(chǎn)業(yè)結(jié)構(gòu)升的邊際影響系數(shù)為0.004;當(dāng)人力資本存量跨過門限之后,資本深化對產(chǎn)業(yè)結(jié)構(gòu)升的貢獻(xiàn)度大幅提高,資本深化程度增加1個百分點將會引起產(chǎn)業(yè)結(jié)構(gòu)水平提升0.007個百分點。(2)鑒于不同類型人力資本對產(chǎn)業(yè)結(jié)構(gòu)升級的貢獻(xiàn)程度有所不同,本文通過構(gòu)建數(shù)理模型演繹了異質(zhì)型人力資本對產(chǎn)業(yè)結(jié)構(gòu)升級的影響。在此基礎(chǔ)上,采用灰色系統(tǒng)理論,運用耦合度模型測算了我國異質(zhì)型人力資本系統(tǒng)與產(chǎn)業(yè)結(jié)構(gòu)系統(tǒng)之間的關(guān)聯(lián)度和耦合度。結(jié)果發(fā)現(xiàn),初級人力資本對第一產(chǎn)業(yè)影響明顯強于第二、三產(chǎn)業(yè),中、高級人力資本對第二、三產(chǎn)業(yè)發(fā)展影響較大。此外,我們還采用分位數(shù)回歸模型,比較細(xì)致地考察了異質(zhì)型人力資本與產(chǎn)業(yè)結(jié)構(gòu)升級關(guān)系的動態(tài)演變。從全國層面看,初級人力資本未能推動產(chǎn)業(yè)結(jié)構(gòu)升級,反而出現(xiàn)抑制作用;伴隨產(chǎn)業(yè)結(jié)構(gòu)深化調(diào)整,中級人力資本對產(chǎn)業(yè)結(jié)構(gòu)升級的作用效果呈現(xiàn)出階段性差異;高級人力資本對產(chǎn)業(yè)結(jié)構(gòu)升級表現(xiàn)出顯著的促進(jìn)作用,并且其邊際貢獻(xiàn)逐漸增加。從分地區(qū)層面看,中部和東部地區(qū)中、高級人力資本與產(chǎn)業(yè)結(jié)構(gòu)水平表現(xiàn)為正相關(guān),并且高級人力資本對產(chǎn)業(yè)結(jié)構(gòu)優(yōu)化升級的促進(jìn)效應(yīng)強于中級人力資本,而西部地區(qū)可能是因為高水平人力資本流失嚴(yán)重,中級人力資本和高級人力資本對產(chǎn)業(yè)結(jié)構(gòu)升級并沒有出現(xiàn)明顯的促進(jìn)作用。(3)本文將空間因素引入產(chǎn)業(yè)結(jié)構(gòu)升級的研究框架,構(gòu)建空間滯后模型和空間誤差模型,對人力資本集聚與產(chǎn)業(yè)結(jié)構(gòu)升級的關(guān)系進(jìn)行定量分析,從而揭示出人力資本集聚對產(chǎn)業(yè)結(jié)構(gòu)升級影響的內(nèi)在機理。研究表明,我國產(chǎn)業(yè)結(jié)構(gòu)升級存在顯著的空間依賴性,周邊地區(qū)的產(chǎn)業(yè)結(jié)構(gòu)發(fā)展可以帶動本地區(qū)產(chǎn)業(yè)結(jié)構(gòu)升級。人力資本集聚對地區(qū)產(chǎn)業(yè)結(jié)構(gòu)升級具有明顯的促進(jìn)作用,但考慮空間效應(yīng)后,人力資本集聚的貢獻(xiàn)程度有所下降。此外,伴隨時間發(fā)展,人力資本集聚對產(chǎn)業(yè)結(jié)構(gòu)升級作用逐漸趨強。當(dāng)前我國人力資本集聚呈現(xiàn)出東、中、西梯度分布格局,人力資本集聚顯著地促進(jìn)東部地區(qū)產(chǎn)業(yè)結(jié)構(gòu)升級,但對中部地區(qū)產(chǎn)業(yè)結(jié)構(gòu)無明顯影響,西部地區(qū)人力資本集聚程度最低,且對產(chǎn)業(yè)結(jié)構(gòu)升級表現(xiàn)出明顯的抑制作用。進(jìn)一步,考慮到受制于經(jīng)濟發(fā)展水平,人力資本集聚對產(chǎn)業(yè)結(jié)構(gòu)升級并非簡單地表現(xiàn)出線性影響,兩者之間可能存在非線性關(guān)系。于是,本文利用面板平滑轉(zhuǎn)換模型,以經(jīng)濟發(fā)展水平作為門限變量,檢驗了人力資本集聚對產(chǎn)業(yè)結(jié)構(gòu)升級影響的非線性特征。結(jié)果不僅支持人力資本集聚與產(chǎn)業(yè)結(jié)構(gòu)升級之間“U”型關(guān)系的存在,還表明人力資本集聚對產(chǎn)業(yè)結(jié)構(gòu)升級存在經(jīng)濟發(fā)展水平的門限效應(yīng),只有經(jīng)濟發(fā)展水平躍過門限值后,人力資本集聚才能促進(jìn)產(chǎn)業(yè)結(jié)構(gòu)升級。為消除人力資本集聚與產(chǎn)業(yè)結(jié)構(gòu)升級之間雙向因果關(guān)系的影響,我們建立人力資本集聚與產(chǎn)業(yè)結(jié)構(gòu)升級聯(lián)立方程模型進(jìn)行檢驗。結(jié)果顯示,當(dāng)?shù)貐^(qū)經(jīng)濟發(fā)展水平相對較低時,人力資本集聚并不利于本地區(qū)產(chǎn)業(yè)結(jié)構(gòu)升級;當(dāng)?shù)貐^(qū)經(jīng)濟發(fā)展進(jìn)入高水平階段后,人力資本集聚對地區(qū)產(chǎn)業(yè)結(jié)構(gòu)升級表現(xiàn)出明顯地推動作用。與面板平滑轉(zhuǎn)換模型結(jié)果一致,保證了本文研究結(jié)論的穩(wěn)健性。(4)我國人力資本集聚趨勢不斷加強,同時人力資本空間分布差異程度居高不下。針對此問題,本文從產(chǎn)業(yè)異質(zhì)性視角,進(jìn)一步探討了人力資本空間分布差異對產(chǎn)業(yè)結(jié)構(gòu)升級的影響。我們分別采用教育基尼系數(shù)和泰爾指數(shù)來刻畫人力資本空間分布差異程度,從測算結(jié)果來看,我國人力資本空間分布差異程度總體上呈下降態(tài)勢,并表現(xiàn)出東、中、西遞增的區(qū)域特征。而后,借助泰爾指數(shù)可分解的優(yōu)良特性,對人力資本空間分布差異進(jìn)行分解,以更為清晰地體現(xiàn)出區(qū)域內(nèi)部差異化結(jié)構(gòu)變動。研究表明,目前我國人力資本空間分布差異主要表現(xiàn)為區(qū)域內(nèi)差異。此外,本文引入城鄉(xiāng)收入差距中介變量,采用中介效應(yīng)模型,檢驗了人力資本空間分布差異通過城鄉(xiāng)收入差距效應(yīng)影響產(chǎn)業(yè)結(jié)構(gòu)升級的作用機理。結(jié)果顯示,人力資本空間分布不均衡會引起城鄉(xiāng)收入差距擴大,由此形成的城鄉(xiāng)收入差距中介效應(yīng)會抑制產(chǎn)業(yè)結(jié)構(gòu)轉(zhuǎn)型升級。
[Abstract]:Research on human capital, pay more attention to its impact on economic growth, the research involves the relationship between human capital and the upgrading of the industrial structure is relatively small. As one of the important factors affecting the upgrading of industrial structure, human capital not only determines the speed of the upgrading of industrial structure has an important influence on the industrial structure transformation direction. Therefore, should be thoroughly grasp the relationship between human capital and industrial structure upgrading. On the one hand, because of the individual differences in factors of education, skills and social status, human capital will show obvious heterogeneity. On the other hand, as the carrier of human capital, the flow in different regions, will lead to human capital the distribution pattern changes. Based on this, this paper multi angle, systematic study of China's human capital and its spatial distribution effect on the upgrading of the industrial structure, the main research The contents and conclusions are as follows: (1) based on the perspective of total human capital, on human capital accumulation and capital deepening effect on the upgrading of the industrial structure. The industrial structure changes by constructing a model consists of two departments, discusses the human capital accumulation and capital deepening on the mechanism of the upgrading of industrial structure, further dynamic setting the panel data model, estimation method using an empirical analysis of the GMM system. The results showed that the accumulation of human capital and capital deepening has a significant role in promoting the upgrading of the industrial structure of our country, from the effects of view, human capital accumulated effect on the upgrading of the industrial structure is higher than that of the unit of capital deepening. In addition, the level of the industrial structure with a period of industrial structure level showed significant positive correlation, shows that the upgrading of the industrial structure has obvious characteristics of path dependence. We also send Now, capital deepening is the human capital threshold effect on the upgrading of the industrial structure, when the stock of human capital is less than or equal to 6.926, the marginal effect coefficient of industrial structure is 0.004 liters of deepening capital; when the stock of human capital across the threshold of industrial capital deepening contribution structure rise significantly, capital deepening increased 1 percentage points caused by the level of industrial structure increased by 0.007 percentage points. (2) in view of the different types of human capital contribution to the upgrading of the industrial structure is different, this paper constructs a mathematical model through interpretation of the influence of different type of human capital on the upgrading of the industrial structure. On this basis, using grey system theory, using the coupling model the measurement system of our country between idiosyncratic human capital and industrial structure correlation and coupling degree. The results showed that the primary effect of human capital on the first industry in Ming Dynasty Was strong in the second, third industry, and advanced human capital to the development of the second, third industry influence. In addition, we also use quantile regression model, more detailed study on dynamic evolution of the relationship between human capital and industrial structure upgrade heterogeneous. From the national level, at the level of human capital to promote the upgrading of the industrial structure, but the inhibition effect; with the deepening of the industrial structure adjustment, the intermediate effect of human capital on the upgrading of industrial structure and show a phase difference; advanced human capital to the upgrading of industrial structure has significant role in promoting, and the marginal contribution increased gradually. From the regional perspective, the central and eastern regions, advanced human capital and industry level the structure performance is positively related, and advanced human capital to promote the optimization and upgrading of the intermediate effect is stronger than the human capital structure, while the western region may be due to For the high level of human capital loss, secondary human capital and advanced human capital to upgrade industrial structure and no obvious promoting effect. (3) the spatial factor into the research framework of the upgrading of industrial structure, constructing the spatial lag model and spatial error model of human capital accumulation through quantitative analysis and the relationship between the upgrading of industrial structure in order to reveal the internal mechanism, the human capital agglomeration effect on the upgrading of industrial structure. The results show that the upgrading of China's industrial structure has significant spatial dependence, industrial structure can promote the development of the surrounding area of local industrial structure upgrading. Human capital agglomeration plays a significant role in promoting the upgrading of regional industrial structure, but considering the spatial effect decline, contribution of human capital agglomeration. Furthermore, with the development of time, Human Capital Agglomeration on industrial structure upgrading effect by Is strong. The current human capital agglomeration of our country shows East, West gradient distribution pattern, human capital agglomeration significantly promote the upgrading of the industrial structure of the eastern region, but has no obvious influence on the industrial structure of the central region, the western region human capital agglomeration and the lowest level and upgrade of the industry structure showed obvious inhibitory effect further. Considering that, subject to the level of economic development, Human Capital Agglomeration on the upgrading of the industrial structure is not simply to show the linear effect between the two, there may be a non-linear relationship. So, this paper uses the panel smooth transition model, with the level of economic development as the threshold variable, to test the nonlinear characteristics of the human capital agglomeration effect on the upgrading of the industrial structure not only results. Support the concentration of human capital and the upgrading of the industrial structure between the "U" type relationship, also shows that the human capital agglomeration on the upgrade of the industrial structure. The threshold effect of the economic development level, only the level of economic development over the threshold value, the human capital agglomeration can promote the upgrading of the industrial structure. As the effect of eliminating the two-way causality between human capital agglomeration and the upgrading of the industrial structure, we establish the human capital agglomeration and industrial structure upgrading in the simultaneous equation model test. The results show that when the regional economy a relatively low level of development, human capital accumulation is not conducive to the upgrading of the industrial structure of the region; when the regional economic development into the high level, the human capital agglomeration on regional industrial structure upgrading showed obvious role. The results are consistent with panel smooth transition, to ensure the robustness of the conclusions of this study. (4) Human Capital China's agglomeration trend continues to strengthen, while human capital spatial distribution difference degree is very high. To solve this problem, this article from the industry heterogeneity From the perspective of, to further explore the influence of spatial distribution of the human capital in the upgrading of industrial structure. We adopt the education of Gene coefficient and Theil index to characterize the spatial distribution of human capital differences, from the calculated results, China's human capital spatial distribution difference degree was decreasing, and exhibited in East region the characteristics of Xidi is increasing. Then, with the excellent characteristics of Theil index decomposition, decomposition of the spatial distribution difference of human capital, to more clearly reflect the changes of the internal structure of the regional differences. The study shows that the spatial distribution difference of human capital in our country at present mainly for regional differences. In addition, the income gap between urban and rural areas the intermediary variable, using the mediation effect model, test the spatial distribution of human capital differences affect the mechanism of the upgrading of industrial structure through the income gap between urban and rural areas. The results show that the unbalanced spatial distribution of human capital will lead to the widening of the income gap between urban and rural areas. The mediating effect of the income gap between urban and rural areas will inhibit the transformation and upgrading of industrial structure.

【學(xué)位授予單位】：吉林大學(xué)
【學(xué)位級別】：博士
【學(xué)位授予年份】：2017
【分類號】：F249.21;F121.3
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本文編號：1360710