【摘要】：按照國際上關(guān)于老齡化社會(huì)的定義,我國在20世紀(jì)末就已經(jīng)進(jìn)入老齡化社會(huì),且老年人口數(shù)仍以每年2.3%的速度向上攀升。國家統(tǒng)計(jì)局發(fā)布的最新數(shù)據(jù)顯示,2016年我國60歲以上老年人口已達(dá)2.31億,占總?cè)丝诘?6.7%,人口老齡化程度進(jìn)一步加深。與此相伴的是,以機(jī)構(gòu)養(yǎng)老為支撐的三大養(yǎng)老服務(wù)體系發(fā)展滯后,存在服務(wù)條件差、資源難整合、管理效率低等現(xiàn)實(shí)問題。隨著我國養(yǎng)老需求不斷飆升和房地產(chǎn)行業(yè)進(jìn)入下行周期,我國經(jīng)濟(jì)告別高位發(fā)展,這些盤繞著的動(dòng)態(tài)變化一步步倒逼著養(yǎng)老地產(chǎn)的快速發(fā)展,囿于我國養(yǎng)老產(chǎn)業(yè)現(xiàn)階段的發(fā)展困境,房企并未找到盈利模式的合適出口。2016年12月23日,國務(wù)院印發(fā)《關(guān)于全面放開養(yǎng)老服務(wù)市場(chǎng)提升養(yǎng)老服務(wù)質(zhì)量的若干意見》中提出對(duì)在養(yǎng)老服務(wù)領(lǐng)域采取政府和社會(huì)資本合作(PPP)方式的項(xiàng)目,可以國有建設(shè)用地使用權(quán)作價(jià)出資或者入股建設(shè)。在中國社會(huì)情境下,將政府在協(xié)助獲取土地,審批、養(yǎng)老政策等方面的優(yōu)勢(shì)與開發(fā)商先進(jìn)管理水平和高效率的工作模式和產(chǎn)品供給相結(jié)合,可以直接降低項(xiàng)目的土地和影子成本,提供更高的產(chǎn)品效率以及利益風(fēng)險(xiǎn)分配�；诖�,文章首先分析了養(yǎng)老地產(chǎn)和中國式PPP的內(nèi)涵,對(duì)比中國式PPP和國際PPP的不同點(diǎn)及優(yōu)缺點(diǎn),為養(yǎng)老地產(chǎn)PPP項(xiàng)目的運(yùn)作奠定理論基礎(chǔ)。然后,通過討論P(yáng)PP在養(yǎng)老地產(chǎn)項(xiàng)目中適用性以及運(yùn)作機(jī)制,為政府在運(yùn)作PPP項(xiàng)目時(shí)的操作流程和實(shí)施計(jì)劃提供參考。其次,對(duì)養(yǎng)老地產(chǎn)PPP項(xiàng)目收益的影響因素進(jìn)行了分析,運(yùn)用系統(tǒng)動(dòng)力學(xué)方法和Vensim軟件建立養(yǎng)老地產(chǎn)PPP項(xiàng)目收益的仿真模型。最后,結(jié)合SUNAC公司與北京FX共同開發(fā)的紫瑞城PPP項(xiàng)目案例,檢驗(yàn)了模型的有效性,對(duì)該項(xiàng)目未來30年的收益進(jìn)行模擬仿真,并觀察紫瑞城項(xiàng)目后期收益的走勢(shì)以及各因素的敏感性分析。論文研究結(jié)果表明:中國式PPP和國際PPP有著本質(zhì)上的區(qū)別;在養(yǎng)老地產(chǎn)PPP項(xiàng)目中,租售并舉模式的回款速度遠(yuǎn)超純會(huì)員租賃模式;在租售規(guī)模比約為2:1(租售套數(shù)比)的情況下,特許會(huì)員制價(jià)格、年入住量、特許銷售價(jià)格分別對(duì)凈現(xiàn)值與特許期的有著正向和負(fù)向的敏感性,且其敏感度依次減弱;文章所建立的系統(tǒng)動(dòng)力學(xué)仿真模型能夠有效預(yù)測(cè)養(yǎng)老地產(chǎn)PPP項(xiàng)目的未來收益和投資回收期,并適用于其他PPP項(xiàng)目中;私營企業(yè)可通過觀察項(xiàng)目的收益走勢(shì)來決定合作與否,政府可通過測(cè)量各因素的敏感性來敲定最終的特許合同細(xì)節(jié),進(jìn)而為項(xiàng)目公司對(duì)后期運(yùn)營策略的調(diào)整提供有效的決策支持。
文內(nèi)圖片：
圖片說明：項(xiàng)目交通圖
[Abstract]:According to the international definition of aging society, China has entered an aging society at the end of the 20th century, and the number of elderly population is still rising at an annual rate of 2.3%. The latest data released by the National Bureau of Statistics show that in 2016, the elderly population over 60 years of age in China has reached 231 million, accounting for 167% of the total population, and the aging degree of the population has been further deepened. With this, the development of the three pension service systems supported by institutional pension system lags behind, and there are some practical problems, such as poor service conditions, difficult integration of resources, low management efficiency and so on. With the soaring demand for the aged in China and the downward cycle of the real estate industry, China's economy bid farewell to the high development of the economy, these dynamic changes step by step forced the rapid development of the old-age real estate, due to the current development predicament of the pension industry in China, housing enterprises have not found a suitable export of the profit model. December 23, 2016, In some opinions issued by the State Council on comprehensively liberalizing the market for providing for the aged and improving the quality of old-age services, it is proposed that projects that adopt the mode of government and social capital cooperation (PPP) in the field of old-age services may be invested or invested in the right to use state-owned construction land. In the social situation of China, the combination of the advantages of the government in obtaining land, examination and approval, pension policy and the advanced management level and efficient working mode and product supply of developers can directly reduce the land and shadow cost of the project, and provide higher product efficiency and benefit risk distribution. Based on this, this paper first analyzes the connotation of pension real estate and Chinese PPP, compares the differences, advantages and disadvantages between Chinese PPP and international PPP, and lays a theoretical foundation for the operation of pension real estate PPP project. Then, by discussing the applicability and operation mechanism of PPP in pension real estate projects, this paper provides a reference for the operation process and implementation plan of the government in the operation of PPP projects. Secondly, the influencing factors of pension real estate PPP project income are analyzed, and the simulation model of pension real estate PPP project income is established by using system dynamics method and Vensim software. Finally, combined with the case of Ziruicheng PPP project jointly developed by SUNAC Company and Beijing FX, the validity of the model is tested, the income of the project in the next 30 years is simulated, and the trend of the later income of the Ziruicheng project and the sensitivity analysis of various factors are observed. The results of this paper show that there is an essential difference between Chinese PPP and international PPP. In the PPP project of pension real estate, the return speed of rent and sale mode is much faster than that of pure member rental mode. When the ratio of rent to sale is about 2:1 (the ratio of rental to sale sets), the price of licensed membership, the annual occupancy and the price of concession have positive and negative sensitivity to NPV and concession period, respectively, and their sensitivity is weakened in turn. The system dynamics simulation model established in this paper can effectively predict the future return and investment payback period of pension real estate PPP project, and can be applied to other PPP projects. Private enterprises can decide whether to cooperate by observing the income trend of the project, and the government can finalize the details of the final concession contract by measuring the sensitivity of each factor, thus providing effective decision support for the project company to adjust the later operation strategy.
【學(xué)位授予單位】：山東建筑大學(xué)
【學(xué)位級(jí)別】：碩士
【學(xué)位授予年份】：2017
【分類號(hào)】：N941.3;F283;F299.23

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