呼和浩特市區(qū)城市用地擴展多情景模擬研究
發(fā)布時間：2019-05-29 21:56
【摘要】：呼和浩特市城市化進程的加快一方面促進了區(qū)域經濟發(fā)展,另一方面也給區(qū)域生態(tài)環(huán)境帶來了極大破壞,使區(qū)域資源、環(huán)境等各方面矛盾突出。因此,將呼和浩特市區(qū)城市用地擴展引起的生態(tài)環(huán)境問題進行深入、系統(tǒng)地研究,對于保護區(qū)域生態(tài)安全,實現城市可持續(xù)發(fā)展具有重要意義。基于上述背景,本文以“城市用地擴展情景模擬——生態(tài)風險效應——相應調控策略”為研究主線,以呼和浩特市區(qū)為例,借鑒景觀生態(tài)學、城市規(guī)劃學等相關理論,利用遙感、地理信息系統(tǒng)技術和CLUE-S模型模擬了2025年呼和浩特市區(qū)不同情景下城市用地的變化情況,并在此基礎上對研究區(qū)進行風險評價。旨在探究不同情景下城市用地擴展對生態(tài)風險的影響,為城市合理發(fā)展提供調控策略。研究結果如下:(1)以CLUE-S模型為基礎,選取自然因素、社會經濟因素和距離因素等,模擬呼和浩特市區(qū)2010年的土地利用變化,并利用Kappa指數結合2010年的實際解譯數據進行驗證。在此基礎上分別模擬研究區(qū)2025年自然增長、糧食保護、生態(tài)保護、土地規(guī)劃四種情景下土地利用變化,結果顯示不同情景下土地利用格局存在顯著差異。(2)研究區(qū)1990-2014年城市用地規(guī)模不斷擴大,24年間城市用地面積擴大了32935.682hm,面積增長了將近3倍。四個研究時段內城市用地擴展速度及強度均有所不同,但總體上呈上升趨勢。其中,2001-2010年城市用地擴展速度、擴展強度均最大。(3)2025年各情景下的城市用地均呈增加趨勢。其中自然增長情景下,城市用地增幅最大,城市用地擴展方向以東部及南部為主。生態(tài)保護情景下,城市用地增幅最小。糧食保護情景下,城市用地主要向東及南部呈無規(guī)則擴展,城市形狀復雜。土地規(guī)劃情景下,城市用地分布較集中。(4)2025年各情景下研究區(qū)整體生態(tài)風險指數水平各不相同,其中,土地規(guī)劃情景下生態(tài)風險指數最低,僅為0.1081;糧食保護情景下研究區(qū)整體生態(tài)風險指數最高,為0.2252。(5)2025年各情景下生態(tài)風險空間分布格局有較大差異。自然增長情景下,生態(tài)風險以低及較低生態(tài)風險等級為主,主要分布在研究區(qū)中西部、大黑河南部及東北部山區(qū)。糧食保護情景下,高生態(tài)風險等級面積比例為66.39%,分布貫穿研究區(qū)東北部及南部地區(qū)。生態(tài)保護情景下,較低等級生態(tài)風險面積占研究區(qū)總面積的66.83%,主要分布在除大黑河沿岸外的北部山區(qū),東部及南部區(qū)域。土地規(guī)劃情景下,以低及較低等級生態(tài)風險為主,占研究區(qū)面積79.38%;高生態(tài)風險主要分布在大黑河沿岸。(6)從不同情景城市用地擴展模擬及所致生態(tài)風險來看,土地規(guī)劃情景是最優(yōu)的城市發(fā)展方案。未來城市發(fā)展中,要適當推行退耕還林政策以保證區(qū)域生態(tài)質量,規(guī)劃基本農田區(qū)以保障糧食供應,合理規(guī)劃城市擴展,在促進城市擴展的同時保障生態(tài)質量。
[Abstract]:On the one hand, the acceleration of urbanization in Hohhot has promoted the development of regional economy, on the other hand, it has also brought great damage to the regional ecological environment, which makes the contradiction between regional resources and environment prominent. Therefore, it is of great significance to deeply and systematically study the ecological environment problems caused by the urban land use expansion in Hohhot for the protection of regional ecological security and the realization of urban sustainable development. Based on the above background, this paper takes "urban land use expansion scenario simulation-ecological risk effect-corresponding regulation and control strategy" as the main line of research, takes Hohhot urban area as an example, draws lessons from landscape ecology, urban planning and other related theories. Remote sensing, GIS technology and CLUE-S model are used to simulate the change of urban land use under different scenarios in Hohhot city in 2025. on this basis, the risk assessment of the study area is carried out. The purpose of this paper is to explore the influence of urban land use expansion on ecological risk under different scenarios, and to provide regulation and control strategies for the rational development of the city. The results are as follows: (1) based on CLUE-S model, natural factors, social and economic factors and distance factors are selected to simulate the land use change in Hohhot city in 2010. The Kappa index combined with the actual interpretation data in 2010 is used to verify. On this basis, the land use changes under the four scenarios of natural growth, grain protection, ecological protection and land planning in the study area in 2025 were simulated respectively. The results showed that there were significant differences in land use pattern under different scenarios. (2) the scale of urban land use in the study area expanded continuously from 1990 to 2014, and the urban land use area increased by 32935.682hm in the past 24 years, and the area increased nearly tripled. The expansion speed and intensity of urban land use are different in the four research periods, but on the whole, it shows an upward trend. From 2001 to 2010, the expansion speed and intensity of urban land use are the highest. (3) the urban land use in 2025 shows an increasing trend. Under the natural growth scenario, the increase of urban land is the largest, and the direction of urban land expansion is mainly in the east and south. Under the scenario of ecological protection, the increase of urban land use is the smallest. Under the scenario of food protection, the urban land mainly expands irregularly to the east and south, and the shape of the city is complex. Under the scenario of land planning, the distribution of urban land is more concentrated. (4) the overall ecological risk index level of the study area is different under each scenario in 2025, among which the ecological risk index is the lowest under the land planning scenario, which is only 0.1081; Under the scenario of grain protection, the overall ecological risk index of the study area is the highest, which is 0.225.2. (5) the spatial distribution pattern of ecological risk under each scenario in 2025 is quite different. Under the natural growth scenario, the ecological risk is mainly low and low ecological risk grade, mainly distributed in the central and western parts of the study area, the southern and northeast mountains of Dahei River. Under the scenario of grain protection, the proportion of high ecological risk grade area is 66.39%, which runs through the northeast and south of the study area. Under the scenario of ecological protection, the lower grade ecological risk area accounts for 66.83% of the total area of the study area, which is mainly distributed in the northern mountainous areas except the Dahei River, the eastern and southern regions. Under the scenario of land planning, the ecological risk of low and lower grade is the main, accounting for 79.38% of the area of the study area. The high ecological risk is mainly distributed along the coast of Dahehe River. (6) from the simulation of urban land use expansion and the ecological risk caused by different scenarios, land planning scenario is the best urban development scheme. In the future urban development, we should properly carry out the policy of returning farmland to forest in order to ensure the regional ecological quality, plan the basic farmland area to ensure the grain supply, plan the urban expansion reasonably, and guarantee the ecological quality while promoting the urban expansion.
【學位授予單位】：內蒙古師范大學
【學位級別】：碩士
【學位授予年份】：2017
【分類號】：F299.23
本文編號：2488253
[Abstract]:On the one hand, the acceleration of urbanization in Hohhot has promoted the development of regional economy, on the other hand, it has also brought great damage to the regional ecological environment, which makes the contradiction between regional resources and environment prominent. Therefore, it is of great significance to deeply and systematically study the ecological environment problems caused by the urban land use expansion in Hohhot for the protection of regional ecological security and the realization of urban sustainable development. Based on the above background, this paper takes "urban land use expansion scenario simulation-ecological risk effect-corresponding regulation and control strategy" as the main line of research, takes Hohhot urban area as an example, draws lessons from landscape ecology, urban planning and other related theories. Remote sensing, GIS technology and CLUE-S model are used to simulate the change of urban land use under different scenarios in Hohhot city in 2025. on this basis, the risk assessment of the study area is carried out. The purpose of this paper is to explore the influence of urban land use expansion on ecological risk under different scenarios, and to provide regulation and control strategies for the rational development of the city. The results are as follows: (1) based on CLUE-S model, natural factors, social and economic factors and distance factors are selected to simulate the land use change in Hohhot city in 2010. The Kappa index combined with the actual interpretation data in 2010 is used to verify. On this basis, the land use changes under the four scenarios of natural growth, grain protection, ecological protection and land planning in the study area in 2025 were simulated respectively. The results showed that there were significant differences in land use pattern under different scenarios. (2) the scale of urban land use in the study area expanded continuously from 1990 to 2014, and the urban land use area increased by 32935.682hm in the past 24 years, and the area increased nearly tripled. The expansion speed and intensity of urban land use are different in the four research periods, but on the whole, it shows an upward trend. From 2001 to 2010, the expansion speed and intensity of urban land use are the highest. (3) the urban land use in 2025 shows an increasing trend. Under the natural growth scenario, the increase of urban land is the largest, and the direction of urban land expansion is mainly in the east and south. Under the scenario of ecological protection, the increase of urban land use is the smallest. Under the scenario of food protection, the urban land mainly expands irregularly to the east and south, and the shape of the city is complex. Under the scenario of land planning, the distribution of urban land is more concentrated. (4) the overall ecological risk index level of the study area is different under each scenario in 2025, among which the ecological risk index is the lowest under the land planning scenario, which is only 0.1081; Under the scenario of grain protection, the overall ecological risk index of the study area is the highest, which is 0.225.2. (5) the spatial distribution pattern of ecological risk under each scenario in 2025 is quite different. Under the natural growth scenario, the ecological risk is mainly low and low ecological risk grade, mainly distributed in the central and western parts of the study area, the southern and northeast mountains of Dahei River. Under the scenario of grain protection, the proportion of high ecological risk grade area is 66.39%, which runs through the northeast and south of the study area. Under the scenario of ecological protection, the lower grade ecological risk area accounts for 66.83% of the total area of the study area, which is mainly distributed in the northern mountainous areas except the Dahei River, the eastern and southern regions. Under the scenario of land planning, the ecological risk of low and lower grade is the main, accounting for 79.38% of the area of the study area. The high ecological risk is mainly distributed along the coast of Dahehe River. (6) from the simulation of urban land use expansion and the ecological risk caused by different scenarios, land planning scenario is the best urban development scheme. In the future urban development, we should properly carry out the policy of returning farmland to forest in order to ensure the regional ecological quality, plan the basic farmland area to ensure the grain supply, plan the urban expansion reasonably, and guarantee the ecological quality while promoting the urban expansion.
【學位授予單位】：內蒙古師范大學
【學位級別】：碩士
【學位授予年份】：2017
【分類號】：F299.23
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