發(fā)布時間：2019-03-06 17:34

【摘要】：文章基于模糊-粗糙集理論和云模型理論構(gòu)建了PPP環(huán)保項目風(fēng)險預(yù)警模型,對PPP環(huán)保項目面臨的風(fēng)險因素及評價方法進行歸類整理,報告了目前PPP項目風(fēng)險識別與評價存在的不足之處,通過采用文獻分析、理論研究、訪談和實地調(diào)研相結(jié)合的方法,展開對我國PPP環(huán)保項目風(fēng)險因素的調(diào)查研究,提出了包含10個一級風(fēng)險指標、30個二級風(fēng)險指標的風(fēng)險預(yù)警指標體系,并以武漢新洲區(qū)項目為例分析驗證了模型的實踐性。模型結(jié)果表明:新洲區(qū)項目總體處于中等風(fēng)險等級,其中,融資可獲性、政策法規(guī)保障、政府監(jiān)管體制不健全等方面的風(fēng)險水平較高,需重點關(guān)注并制定相應(yīng)的防控應(yīng)對機制。據(jù)此提出了相應(yīng)的政策建議:開拓多元化融資渠道;完善政府監(jiān)管體制;建立合理的風(fēng)險分擔(dān)機制;明確合作人之間的權(quán)利與義務(wù);提高合作信用等,以期實現(xiàn)我國PPP環(huán)保項目的成功運營。
[Abstract]:Based on fuzzy-rough set theory and cloud model theory, this paper constructs a PPP environmental protection project risk early warning model, classifies the risk factors and evaluation methods faced by PPP environmental protection projects, and classifies the risk factors and evaluation methods of PPP environmental protection projects. This paper reports the shortcomings of PPP project risk identification and evaluation at present. By using the methods of literature analysis, theoretical research, interview and field investigation, the risk factors of PPP environmental protection projects in China are investigated and studied. A risk early warning index system consisting of 10 first-level risk indicators and 30 second-level risk indicators is put forward, and the practicality of the model is verified by taking the Wuhan Xinzhou District project as an example. The results of the model show that the project in Xinzhou district is in the middle risk level, in which, the financing availability, the guarantee of policies and regulations, the imperfect government supervision system and other aspects of the risk level are relatively high, so it is necessary to pay more attention to and formulate the corresponding prevention and control response mechanism. Accordingly, the corresponding policy suggestions are put forward: opening up diversified financing channels; perfecting the government supervision system; establishing a reasonable risk-sharing mechanism; clarifying the rights and obligations of partners; In order to realize the successful operation of PPP environmental protection project in our country, we can improve the cooperation credit and so on.
【作者單位】： 許昌學(xué)院土木工程學(xué)院;武漢大學(xué)土木建筑工程學(xué)院;
【基金】：2016年度河南省科技廳科技攻關(guān)項目(162102310125) 河南省大學(xué)生創(chuàng)新創(chuàng)業(yè)訓(xùn)練計劃項目(201710480008)
【分類號】：F283;X32

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