【摘要】：本文利用浙江、河南、四川三省960份已從農(nóng)村遷移到城鎮(zhèn)的居民的入戶調(diào)查數(shù)據(jù),建立二元Logistic回歸模型進行驗證,分析居民再遷移傾向。研究結(jié)果表明:(1)從描述性統(tǒng)計看,69.69%已進城居民不愿再遷,主要是生活原因,而30.31%的居民愿意再遷,主要是經(jīng)濟原因。(2)從三省總樣本上看,一是女性較男性有更強的遷移意愿。二是年齡對再次遷移意愿有負向顯著影響,年齡越大的進城居民更傾向"安土重遷"。三是家庭類型中三代同堂較單身家庭有更強的遷移意愿,因為養(yǎng)老難、子女教育難。四是手工業(yè)工人較村組干部更不愿意遷移,技能優(yōu)勢使其在城里更有保障。五是家庭年總收入對再遷意愿有正向顯著影響。六是浙江、四川與河南三地的差異顯著,因為三地分屬于我國東中西部,社會經(jīng)濟、居民收入和文化觀念存在顯著差異。(3)從分省比較上看,一是性別、打工年限、家庭類型在浙江省和四川省模型中均有顯著影響,但方向相反。二是工作類型在三省都有一定的影響,但存在差異。三是家庭年總收入在河南省不顯著,而在四川省和浙江省均是正向顯著。四是搬遷到城鎮(zhèn)的年數(shù)在河南省是正向顯著,而在浙江省和四川省是負向顯著。五是浙江省和四川省模型都說明對政府越滿意,居民越不愿意遷移。基于以上研究結(jié)論,本文認為在推進以人為核心的新型城鎮(zhèn)化進程中,政府應(yīng)發(fā)揮重要的引導(dǎo)作用,關(guān)注已進城居民對經(jīng)濟、生活、教育、社會保障等方面的合理需求,重視不同區(qū)域社會經(jīng)濟和文化觀念的差異性,健全人口遷移的相關(guān)體制,落實各項相關(guān)保障政策。
[Abstract]:Based on the data of 960 households in Zhejiang, Henan and Sichuan provinces, a binary Logistic regression model was established to analyze the remigration tendency of residents. The results show that: (1) from the descriptive statistics, 69.69% of the residents in cities do not want to move again, mainly because of their living conditions, while 30.31% of the residents are willing to move again, mainly for economic reasons. (2) from the total sample of the three provinces, One is that women have a stronger willingness to move than men. The other is that age has a negative effect on the willingness to relocate again, and the older the residents are, the more likely they are to relocate again. The third is that three generations of families have stronger intention to migrate than single families because of the difficulty of providing for the aged and the difficulty of children's education. Fourth, handicraft workers are more reluctant to move than village cadres, and their skill advantages make them more secure in the city. Fifth, the annual income of the family has a positive and significant impact on the willingness to relocate. Sixth, there are significant differences among Zhejiang, Sichuan and Henan, because the three places belong to the east, west, west and west of China, and there are significant differences in social economy, residents' income and cultural concepts. (3) in terms of comparison by province, one is gender, the number of years of working. Family types have significant effects on both Zhejiang and Sichuan models, but in the opposite direction. Second, the type of work in the three provinces have a certain impact, but there are differences. Third, annual family income is not significant in Henan Province, but is positive in Sichuan Province and Zhejiang Province. Fourth, the number of years of moving to cities and towns is positive in Henan Province, but negative in Zhejiang Province and Sichuan Province. Fifth, Zhejiang and Sichuan models show that the more satisfied with the government, the less willing residents are to move. Based on the above conclusions, this paper holds that the government should play an important guiding role in the process of promoting a new type of urbanization with people as the core, and pay attention to the reasonable needs of residents in cities in the fields of economy, life, education, social security, etc. We should pay attention to the differences of social, economic and cultural concepts in different regions, perfect the relevant system of population migration, and implement the relevant safeguard policies.
【作者單位】： 福建師范大學(xué)旅游學(xué)院;西南財經(jīng)大學(xué)中國西部經(jīng)濟研究中心;浙江大學(xué)中國農(nóng)村發(fā)展研究院;
【基金】：國家自然科學(xué)基金項目“空間計量經(jīng)濟學(xué)視角下產(chǎn)業(yè)集群對農(nóng)村減貧作用的研究”(批準號:71503212) 福建省科技廳軟科學(xué)項目“旅游企業(yè)遷移驅(qū)動下的旅游城鎮(zhèn)化模式、機制及效應(yīng)研究:基于全國十縣的調(diào)查”(批準號:2015R0030)
【分類號】：F299.27;F323.6
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本文編號：2349074