非經(jīng)營性公路VFM定量評價應(yīng)用研究
發(fā)布時間：2018-11-20 21:16
【摘要】：本文參照并借鑒國內(nèi)外PPP項目VFM定量評價的理論及應(yīng)用實踐,結(jié)合我國非經(jīng)營性公路建設(shè)項目的特點及本土化環(huán)境,研究非經(jīng)營性PPP項目VFM定量評價的可操作性措施,在此基礎(chǔ)上提出未來的發(fā)展方向及改進建議,從而為我國VFM定量評價提供理論及實踐參考。全文主要采用案例分析法,以J縣北環(huán)線公路PPP項目為例,結(jié)合專家咨詢、文獻資料研究、定性與定量分析相結(jié)合等研究方法,闡述了非經(jīng)營性公路的特性,構(gòu)建了 PSC法下的VFM評價模型,對其中的關(guān)鍵參數(shù)如折現(xiàn)率、風險損失系數(shù)、社會投資方的合理利潤率等運用方法進行了分析。結(jié)合實際案例,對模型中的兩大核心指標PSC值、PPP值的架構(gòu)及指標因子進行了測算,并延伸性運用了敏感性分析技術(shù)對評價模型的適用性進行了闡釋,解決了應(yīng)用中的一些難點或困惑問題,主要得出了以下結(jié)論:1.將PSC法運用于我國非經(jīng)營PPP項目VFM定量評價,應(yīng)有結(jié)合我國具體國情構(gòu)建具有針對性的評價模型及參數(shù)指標以保證數(shù)據(jù)來源的合理性。2.折現(xiàn)率的高低對VFM評價結(jié)論影響很大,取值不當可能導(dǎo)致評價結(jié)論取偽性或棄真性失誤,有必要對我國現(xiàn)有評價模型中的折現(xiàn)率進行修正。從政府資金成本角度出發(fā),不能簡單參照地方政府同期債券利率,可借助CAPM模型引入風險轉(zhuǎn)移系數(shù)等對折現(xiàn)率加以修正,建立適合我國國情的折現(xiàn)率體系。3.通過VFM敏感性分析,可以幫助PPP項目決策者識別影響VFM結(jié)論的敏感性因素;通過VFM臨界點分析,有助于決策者界定影響VFM結(jié)論的極限值及可容忍變動幅度而不至于出現(xiàn)決策失誤。4.借助敏感性分析,將VFM作為一種管理手段,可對PPP項目實施監(jiān)測和VFM的修正,從項目全壽命周期的角度貫徹物有所值的理念。
[Abstract]:Referring to the theory and practice of VFM quantitative evaluation of PPP projects at home and abroad, combining with the characteristics and localization environment of non-commercial highway construction projects in China, this paper studies the operable measures of VFM quantitative evaluation for non-profit-making PPP projects. On this basis, the future direction of development and suggestions for improvement are put forward, thus providing theoretical and practical reference for quantitative evaluation of VFM in China. This paper mainly adopts the case analysis method, taking the PPP project of the Northern Loop Road in J County as an example, combining the research methods of expert consultation, literature research, qualitative and quantitative analysis and so on, expounds the characteristics of the non-commercial highway. The VFM evaluation model based on PSC method is constructed, and the key parameters such as discount rate, risk loss coefficient and reasonable profit rate of social investors are analyzed. Combined with practical cases, this paper calculates the PSC value, the PPP structure and the index factors of the two core indexes in the model, and explains the applicability of the evaluation model by using sensitivity analysis technology. To solve some difficult or puzzling problems in application, the main conclusions are as follows: 1. In order to ensure the rationality of data sources, the PSC method should be applied to the VFM quantitative evaluation of non-operating PPP projects in China, and a targeted evaluation model and parameter indexes should be constructed according to the specific conditions of our country. 2. The discount rate has a great influence on the evaluation conclusion of VFM, and improper value may lead to false or false evaluation conclusion. It is necessary to revise the discount rate in the existing evaluation model of our country. From the point of view of government capital cost, we can not simply refer to the interest rate of local government bonds in the same period. We can use the CAPM model to introduce risk transfer coefficient to modify the discount rate and establish a discount rate system suitable for our country's national conditions. 3. The sensitivity analysis of VFM can help the decision makers of PPP project to identify the sensitive factors that affect the conclusion of VFM. Through the VFM critical point analysis, it is helpful for the decision makers to define the limit value and the tolerable range of changes that affect the VFM conclusion without making decision mistakes. 4. With the help of sensitivity analysis, VFM can be used as a management tool to monitor and modify PPP projects and to implement the concept of value for money from the point of view of the whole life cycle of the project.
【學位授予單位】：西南交通大學
【學位級別】：碩士
【學位授予年份】：2017
【分類號】：F283
本文編號：2346052
[Abstract]:Referring to the theory and practice of VFM quantitative evaluation of PPP projects at home and abroad, combining with the characteristics and localization environment of non-commercial highway construction projects in China, this paper studies the operable measures of VFM quantitative evaluation for non-profit-making PPP projects. On this basis, the future direction of development and suggestions for improvement are put forward, thus providing theoretical and practical reference for quantitative evaluation of VFM in China. This paper mainly adopts the case analysis method, taking the PPP project of the Northern Loop Road in J County as an example, combining the research methods of expert consultation, literature research, qualitative and quantitative analysis and so on, expounds the characteristics of the non-commercial highway. The VFM evaluation model based on PSC method is constructed, and the key parameters such as discount rate, risk loss coefficient and reasonable profit rate of social investors are analyzed. Combined with practical cases, this paper calculates the PSC value, the PPP structure and the index factors of the two core indexes in the model, and explains the applicability of the evaluation model by using sensitivity analysis technology. To solve some difficult or puzzling problems in application, the main conclusions are as follows: 1. In order to ensure the rationality of data sources, the PSC method should be applied to the VFM quantitative evaluation of non-operating PPP projects in China, and a targeted evaluation model and parameter indexes should be constructed according to the specific conditions of our country. 2. The discount rate has a great influence on the evaluation conclusion of VFM, and improper value may lead to false or false evaluation conclusion. It is necessary to revise the discount rate in the existing evaluation model of our country. From the point of view of government capital cost, we can not simply refer to the interest rate of local government bonds in the same period. We can use the CAPM model to introduce risk transfer coefficient to modify the discount rate and establish a discount rate system suitable for our country's national conditions. 3. The sensitivity analysis of VFM can help the decision makers of PPP project to identify the sensitive factors that affect the conclusion of VFM. Through the VFM critical point analysis, it is helpful for the decision makers to define the limit value and the tolerable range of changes that affect the VFM conclusion without making decision mistakes. 4. With the help of sensitivity analysis, VFM can be used as a management tool to monitor and modify PPP projects and to implement the concept of value for money from the point of view of the whole life cycle of the project.
【學位授予單位】：西南交通大學
【學位級別】：碩士
【學位授予年份】：2017
【分類號】：F283
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