基于貝葉斯網(wǎng)絡(luò)的混合融資PPP項(xiàng)目特許期的影響因素分析
發(fā)布時(shí)間：2018-11-14 16:33
【摘要】：在基礎(chǔ)設(shè)施建設(shè)領(lǐng)域中統(tǒng)籌推進(jìn)政府和社會資本合作(Public Private Partnership,PPP),提升我國公共服務(wù)建設(shè)的效率和質(zhì)量,是目前我國公共服務(wù)領(lǐng)域深化改革的一項(xiàng)重要舉措。近幾年,財(cái)政部等相繼印發(fā)了關(guān)于PPP項(xiàng)目財(cái)政管理的政策文件,為進(jìn)一步促進(jìn)混合融資模式在國內(nèi)公共服務(wù)領(lǐng)域的應(yīng)用和推廣提供了保障。PPP項(xiàng)目的關(guān)注點(diǎn)較多,核心問題之一在于如何確定混合融資項(xiàng)目的特許期。由于受到自然環(huán)境、政策法規(guī)、經(jīng)濟(jì)環(huán)境等多種不確定因素的影響,導(dǎo)致基礎(chǔ)設(shè)施建設(shè)項(xiàng)目面臨各種風(fēng)險(xiǎn),其直接結(jié)果是項(xiàng)目成本超支或延期交付。本文針對混合融資模式下PPP項(xiàng)目特許期決策的一些不確定影響因素進(jìn)行分析,建立基于貝葉斯網(wǎng)絡(luò)的HFPPP特許期模型,并給出模型的概率推理及分析過程。論文的研究工作如下:(1)文章通過文獻(xiàn)回顧了已有研究中關(guān)于PPP項(xiàng)目研究的熱點(diǎn)問題及PPP項(xiàng)目特許期的研究現(xiàn)狀,并對HFPPP模式下項(xiàng)目特許期的概念和影響因素進(jìn)行了描述。交通項(xiàng)目特許期內(nèi)的經(jīng)營收入主要由車流量和收費(fèi)價(jià)格決定,成本支出主要受材料價(jià)格和人工成本影響。(2)將貝葉斯網(wǎng)絡(luò)模型進(jìn)行改進(jìn),定義了基礎(chǔ)設(shè)施建設(shè)項(xiàng)目特許期貝葉斯網(wǎng)絡(luò)模型結(jié)構(gòu),將影響項(xiàng)目特許期內(nèi)運(yùn)營收支的不確定因素引入貝葉斯網(wǎng)絡(luò)模型節(jié)點(diǎn)。同時(shí),描述了HFPPP項(xiàng)目特許期貝葉斯網(wǎng)絡(luò)的建模過程。(3)在建模過程中也提出了貝葉斯網(wǎng)絡(luò)的概率推理算法和凈現(xiàn)值方法。同時(shí),將HFPPP項(xiàng)目生命周期進(jìn)行階段劃分,針對不同階段經(jīng)濟(jì)發(fā)展水平及物價(jià)水平的變化,對項(xiàng)目特許期內(nèi)的經(jīng)營收入和支出的凈現(xiàn)值進(jìn)行分析,在符合項(xiàng)目可行性和收益最大化的前提下,確定最佳的項(xiàng)目特許期時(shí)間跨度。(4)運(yùn)用HFPPP項(xiàng)目特許期貝葉斯網(wǎng)絡(luò)模型對某高速公路項(xiàng)目進(jìn)行案例分析,進(jìn)一步驗(yàn)證了基于貝葉斯網(wǎng)絡(luò)的HFPPP項(xiàng)目特許期模型的可行性和有效性。通過以上研究表明:貝葉斯網(wǎng)絡(luò)模型與現(xiàn)金流量凈現(xiàn)值法相結(jié)合,可以對HFPPP項(xiàng)目特許期不同影響因素相互作用的可能性進(jìn)行定量預(yù)測,在滿足項(xiàng)目可行性的前提下,運(yùn)營期收支組合概率的最大化標(biāo)準(zhǔn)及凈現(xiàn)值最大化標(biāo)準(zhǔn)可以滿足項(xiàng)目持續(xù)運(yùn)營的基本要求。因此,投資雙方可以在最有利的方式下進(jìn)行HFPPP項(xiàng)目的投資管理,在此基礎(chǔ)上,計(jì)算出一個(gè)合理的特許經(jīng)營期。當(dāng)項(xiàng)目生命周期的劃分單位趨向于縮小時(shí),預(yù)測將變的更加準(zhǔn)確。
[Abstract]:In the field of infrastructure construction, it is an important measure to promote the cooperation between government and social capital (Public Private Partnership,PPP) and to improve the efficiency and quality of public service construction in China. In recent years, the Ministry of Finance and others have issued policy documents on the financial management of PPP projects, which provide a guarantee for further promoting the application and popularization of the mixed financing model in the domestic public service field. The PPP project pays more attention to it. One of the core issues is how to determine the concessionary period of a mixed financing project. Due to the influence of many uncertain factors, such as natural environment, policies and regulations, economic environment, the infrastructure construction project faces various risks. The direct result is the cost overrun or the delay of delivery of the project. In this paper, we analyze some uncertain factors that influence the decision of concession period of PPP project under mixed financing mode, establish the HFPPP concession period model based on Bayesian network, and give the probabilistic reasoning and analysis process of the model. The research work of this paper is as follows: (1) this paper reviews the hot issues of PPP project research and the current research status of PPP project concession period through literature, and describes the concept and influencing factors of project concession period under HFPPP mode. The operating income of transportation project during the concession period is mainly determined by the traffic flow and the charge price, and the cost expenditure is mainly affected by the material price and labor cost. (2) the Bayesian network model is improved. In this paper, the Bayesian network model structure of infrastructure construction project is defined, and the uncertain factors that affect the operating income and expenditure during the concession period are introduced into the Bayesian network model node. At the same time, the modeling process of Bayesian network in concession period of HFPPP project is described. (3) in the process of modeling, the probabilistic reasoning algorithm and net present value method of Bayesian network are also proposed. At the same time, the HFPPP project life cycle is divided into stages. According to the changes of economic development level and price level in different stages, the net present value of operating income and expenditure during the concession period of the project is analyzed. According to the premise of project feasibility and profit maximization, the best time span of project concession period is determined. (4) A case study of a highway project is carried out by using the Bayesian network model of HFPPP project concession period. The feasibility and effectiveness of the HFPPP project concession model based on Bayesian network are further verified. The results show that the combination of Bayesian network model and cash flow net present value method can predict quantitatively the possibility of the interaction of different influencing factors in the concession period of HFPPP project and satisfy the feasibility of the project. The maximization criteria of combination probability and net present value of operating period can meet the basic requirements of continuous operation of the project. Therefore, the investment management of HFPPP project can be carried out in the most advantageous way, and a reasonable franchise period can be calculated on this basis. As the division of the project lifecycle tends to shrink, the prediction becomes more accurate.
【學(xué)位授予單位】：青島大學(xué)
【學(xué)位級別】：碩士
【學(xué)位授予年份】：2017
【分類號】：F283
本文編號：2331711
[Abstract]:In the field of infrastructure construction, it is an important measure to promote the cooperation between government and social capital (Public Private Partnership,PPP) and to improve the efficiency and quality of public service construction in China. In recent years, the Ministry of Finance and others have issued policy documents on the financial management of PPP projects, which provide a guarantee for further promoting the application and popularization of the mixed financing model in the domestic public service field. The PPP project pays more attention to it. One of the core issues is how to determine the concessionary period of a mixed financing project. Due to the influence of many uncertain factors, such as natural environment, policies and regulations, economic environment, the infrastructure construction project faces various risks. The direct result is the cost overrun or the delay of delivery of the project. In this paper, we analyze some uncertain factors that influence the decision of concession period of PPP project under mixed financing mode, establish the HFPPP concession period model based on Bayesian network, and give the probabilistic reasoning and analysis process of the model. The research work of this paper is as follows: (1) this paper reviews the hot issues of PPP project research and the current research status of PPP project concession period through literature, and describes the concept and influencing factors of project concession period under HFPPP mode. The operating income of transportation project during the concession period is mainly determined by the traffic flow and the charge price, and the cost expenditure is mainly affected by the material price and labor cost. (2) the Bayesian network model is improved. In this paper, the Bayesian network model structure of infrastructure construction project is defined, and the uncertain factors that affect the operating income and expenditure during the concession period are introduced into the Bayesian network model node. At the same time, the modeling process of Bayesian network in concession period of HFPPP project is described. (3) in the process of modeling, the probabilistic reasoning algorithm and net present value method of Bayesian network are also proposed. At the same time, the HFPPP project life cycle is divided into stages. According to the changes of economic development level and price level in different stages, the net present value of operating income and expenditure during the concession period of the project is analyzed. According to the premise of project feasibility and profit maximization, the best time span of project concession period is determined. (4) A case study of a highway project is carried out by using the Bayesian network model of HFPPP project concession period. The feasibility and effectiveness of the HFPPP project concession model based on Bayesian network are further verified. The results show that the combination of Bayesian network model and cash flow net present value method can predict quantitatively the possibility of the interaction of different influencing factors in the concession period of HFPPP project and satisfy the feasibility of the project. The maximization criteria of combination probability and net present value of operating period can meet the basic requirements of continuous operation of the project. Therefore, the investment management of HFPPP project can be carried out in the most advantageous way, and a reasonable franchise period can be calculated on this basis. As the division of the project lifecycle tends to shrink, the prediction becomes more accurate.
【學(xué)位授予單位】：青島大學(xué)
【學(xué)位級別】：碩士
【學(xué)位授予年份】：2017
【分類號】：F283
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