發(fā)布時(shí)間：2018-11-08 17:41

【摘要】：隨著城市化進(jìn)程的快速發(fā)展,城市內(nèi)部老城區(qū)的發(fā)展步伐落后于城市新區(qū)的發(fā)展速度,老城區(qū)的很多房屋由于年久失修,配套基礎(chǔ)設(shè)施不齊全等問(wèn)題而亟待改造,這些危房舊房組成了大面積的棚戶(hù)區(qū),對(duì)棚戶(hù)區(qū)的改造是一項(xiàng)比較復(fù)雜的系統(tǒng)工程,其面臨拆遷困難,安置補(bǔ)償成本大,對(duì)資金需求規(guī)模較大,融資風(fēng)險(xiǎn)問(wèn)題成為整個(gè)項(xiàng)目改造的關(guān)鍵問(wèn)題。使用科學(xué)的方法對(duì)融資風(fēng)險(xiǎn)進(jìn)行識(shí)別評(píng)價(jià),不僅能對(duì)項(xiàng)目融資整體風(fēng)險(xiǎn)水平有更清楚的認(rèn)識(shí),而且能對(duì)風(fēng)險(xiǎn)的控制具有指導(dǎo)性意義。本論文在國(guó)內(nèi)外研究成果和實(shí)地調(diào)研的基礎(chǔ)上,以棚戶(hù)區(qū)改造項(xiàng)目融資問(wèn)題為研究對(duì)象,首先在公共物品理論和項(xiàng)目融資理論基礎(chǔ)上對(duì)項(xiàng)目融資運(yùn)作流程進(jìn)行分析,界定了棚戶(hù)區(qū)的含義,確定了項(xiàng)目融資的主要參與者,創(chuàng)新了棚戶(hù)區(qū)改造項(xiàng)目融資模式;結(jié)合風(fēng)險(xiǎn)評(píng)價(jià)理論和風(fēng)險(xiǎn)識(shí)別理論,以融資風(fēng)險(xiǎn)評(píng)價(jià)流程為線(xiàn)索,運(yùn)用了定性研究與定量分析相結(jié)合方法,識(shí)別了對(duì)項(xiàng)目融資有影響的風(fēng)險(xiǎn)因素,并對(duì)這些風(fēng)險(xiǎn)因素進(jìn)行研究分析。本論文在分析棚戶(hù)區(qū)改造項(xiàng)目融資過(guò)程中存在的主要影響因素的基礎(chǔ)上,著重研究每個(gè)影響因素的影響機(jī)理,建立了適用于棚戶(hù)區(qū)改造項(xiàng)目融資風(fēng)險(xiǎn)評(píng)價(jià)的指標(biāo)體系。運(yùn)用了風(fēng)險(xiǎn)價(jià)值模型(VaR)對(duì)融資風(fēng)險(xiǎn)進(jìn)行評(píng)估,模擬分析了財(cái)務(wù)風(fēng)險(xiǎn)和市場(chǎng)風(fēng)險(xiǎn)的變化時(shí)對(duì)項(xiàng)目融資的影響。結(jié)合層次分析法(AHP)構(gòu)建了基于灰色系統(tǒng)理論和模糊數(shù)學(xué)理論的灰類(lèi)模糊理論評(píng)價(jià)方法,設(shè)計(jì)調(diào)查問(wèn)卷獲得指標(biāo)數(shù)據(jù)。最后以哈爾濱市DW棚戶(hù)區(qū)改造項(xiàng)目為例,針對(duì)主要風(fēng)險(xiǎn)因素對(duì)項(xiàng)目融資的影響程度進(jìn)行研究,得出了項(xiàng)目融資的整體風(fēng)險(xiǎn)水平情況。針對(duì)棚戶(hù)區(qū)改造項(xiàng)目融資風(fēng)險(xiǎn)問(wèn)題,從項(xiàng)目公司角度和政府相關(guān)部門(mén)角度提出風(fēng)險(xiǎn)應(yīng)對(duì)策略。
[Abstract]:With the rapid development of the urbanization process, the pace of the development of the old urban area lags behind that of the new urban district. Many houses in the old urban area are in urgent need of transformation because of the problems of old disrepair, incomplete supporting infrastructure, and so on. These dilapidated old houses form a large area of shantytowns. The transformation of shantytowns is a more complex systematic project. It faces difficulties in demolition and relocation, has a large cost of resettlement and compensation, and requires a large scale of funds. The financing risk problem becomes the key problem of the whole project transformation. The use of scientific methods to identify and evaluate the financing risks can not only have a clearer understanding of the overall risk level of project financing, but also have a guiding significance for risk control. Based on the domestic and foreign research results and field research, this paper takes the shantytown reconstruction project financing as the research object. Firstly, on the basis of public goods theory and project financing theory, this paper analyzes the project financing operation process. It defines the meaning of shantytown, determines the main participants of project financing, and innovates the financing mode of shantytown reconstruction project. Combined with risk evaluation theory and risk identification theory, the paper uses qualitative research and quantitative analysis to identify the risk factors that have an impact on project financing, taking the financing risk evaluation process as a clue and combining qualitative research with quantitative analysis. And these risk factors are studied and analyzed. Based on the analysis of the main influencing factors in the process of shantytown reconstruction project financing, this paper focuses on the influence mechanism of each factor, and establishes an index system suitable for evaluating the financing risk of shantytown reconstruction project. The risk value model (VaR) is used to evaluate the financing risk, and the influence of the change of financial risk and market risk on project financing is simulated and analyzed. The evaluation method of grey fuzzy theory based on grey system theory and fuzzy mathematics theory is constructed based on the analytic hierarchy process (AHP). The questionnaire is designed to obtain the index data. Finally, taking the DW shantytown reconstruction project in Harbin as an example, this paper studies the influence of main risk factors on project financing, and obtains the overall risk level of project financing. Aiming at the problem of financing risk of shantytown reconstruction project, this paper puts forward the risk countermeasures from the angle of project company and relevant government departments.
【學(xué)位授予單位】：哈爾濱工業(yè)大學(xué)
【學(xué)位級(jí)別】：碩士
【學(xué)位授予年份】：2017
【分類(lèi)號(hào)】：F299.27

【相似文獻(xiàn)】

相關(guān)期刊論文 前10條

1 姜明秋;;探討目前項(xiàng)目融資風(fēng)險(xiǎn)管理的問(wèn)題及其對(duì)策[J];現(xiàn)代商業(yè);2014年05期

2 屈哲;芻論我國(guó)項(xiàng)目融資風(fēng)險(xiǎn)管理[J];財(cái)經(jīng)問(wèn)題研究;2002年11期

3 甄玉敏,趙順海;項(xiàng)目融資風(fēng)險(xiǎn)與防范[J];長(zhǎng)春大學(xué)學(xué)報(bào);2003年03期

4 俞云;琚向紅;池澤新;;我國(guó)企業(yè)項(xiàng)目融資風(fēng)險(xiǎn)管理現(xiàn)存的問(wèn)題及其對(duì)策[J];項(xiàng)目管理技術(shù);2004年09期

5 范小軍,王方華,鐘根元;大型基礎(chǔ)項(xiàng)目融資風(fēng)險(xiǎn)的動(dòng)態(tài)模糊評(píng)價(jià)[J];上海交通大學(xué)學(xué)報(bào);2004年03期

6 邱曉晨,張穎;公路建設(shè)項(xiàng)目融資風(fēng)險(xiǎn)及其特性分析[J];公路與汽運(yùn);2004年05期

7 俞云,琚向紅;我國(guó)企業(yè)項(xiàng)目融資風(fēng)險(xiǎn)管理現(xiàn)存的問(wèn)題及其對(duì)策[J];商業(yè)研究;2005年12期

8 黃為一;;項(xiàng)目融資風(fēng)險(xiǎn)防范面面觀[J];國(guó)際經(jīng)濟(jì)合作;2006年08期

9 劉江華;;項(xiàng)目融資風(fēng)險(xiǎn)分擔(dān)研究[J];工業(yè)技術(shù)經(jīng)濟(jì);2006年08期

10 范小軍;趙一;鐘根元;;基礎(chǔ)項(xiàng)目融資風(fēng)險(xiǎn)的分擔(dān)比例研究[J];管理工程學(xué)報(bào);2007年01期

相關(guān)會(huì)議論文 前10條

1 陳敬武;邢秀青;崔建英;;基于灰色系統(tǒng)理論的項(xiàng)目融資風(fēng)險(xiǎn)評(píng)價(jià)[A];管理科學(xué)與系統(tǒng)科學(xué)研究新進(jìn)展——第8屆全國(guó)青年管理科學(xué)與系統(tǒng)科學(xué)學(xué)術(shù)會(huì)議論文集[C];2005年

2 呂劍亮;;吉林省棚戶(hù)區(qū)改造對(duì)改善居民居住條件影響的分析[A];吉林省土木建筑學(xué)會(huì)2012年學(xué)術(shù)年會(huì)論文[C];2012年

3 楊曉華;;棚戶(hù)區(qū)改造檔案芻議[A];科學(xué)時(shí)代——2014科技創(chuàng)新與企業(yè)管理研討會(huì)論文集下（企業(yè)管理）[C];2014年

4 楚德江;;棚戶(hù)區(qū)改造的困境與出路——以徐州棚戶(hù)區(qū)改造的經(jīng)驗(yàn)為例[A];中國(guó)行政管理學(xué)會(huì)2010年會(huì)暨“政府管理創(chuàng)新”研討會(huì)論文集[C];2010年

5 郭鵬;吳蓮芳;;構(gòu)建“和諧社會(huì)”背景下哈爾濱市棚戶(hù)區(qū)改造政策[A];生態(tài)文明視角下的城鄉(xiāng)規(guī)劃——2008中國(guó)城市規(guī)劃年會(huì)論文集[C];2008年

6 徐莉莉;吳s，

本文編號(hào)：2319216