【摘要】：如何提升就業(yè)率的問(wèn)題一直是關(guān)乎民生和國(guó)家社會(huì)發(fā)展的重大問(wèn)題。很多專家學(xué)者都對(duì)就業(yè)形勢(shì)、就業(yè)存在的問(wèn)題進(jìn)行了深入研究。本文利用SPSS和Eviews軟件來(lái)研究湖南省就業(yè)問(wèn)題。首先利用時(shí)間序列模型預(yù)測(cè)了下一年湖南省的就業(yè)率。然后找出影響湖南省就業(yè)的因素,并提出對(duì)應(yīng)策略。第一步,用描述性統(tǒng)計(jì)和SPSS軟件分析湖南省近些年的經(jīng)濟(jì)變化和經(jīng)濟(jì)發(fā)展形式。從分析結(jié)果來(lái)看,湖南省經(jīng)濟(jì)水平總體平穩(wěn)上升,結(jié)構(gòu)不斷優(yōu)化,更加適應(yīng)市場(chǎng)發(fā)展需求。但對(duì)就業(yè)方面而言,湖南省并未實(shí)現(xiàn)充分就業(yè),所以進(jìn)一步提升就業(yè)率也是有必要的。第二步,運(yùn)用Eviews軟件建立時(shí)間序列模型,預(yù)測(cè)湖南省下一年的就業(yè)率。本文數(shù)據(jù)分析的過(guò)程是:首先對(duì)搜集到的數(shù)據(jù)進(jìn)行檢驗(yàn),然后對(duì)數(shù)據(jù)進(jìn)一步處理,直到數(shù)據(jù)滿足平穩(wěn)的非白噪聲序列為止,再進(jìn)行下一步模型的構(gòu)造,最后從中選取最優(yōu)的進(jìn)行下一步分析。就業(yè)率數(shù)據(jù)結(jié)果顯示,湖南省近十年就業(yè)率穩(wěn)步上升。第三步,用因子分析和聚類(lèi)分析進(jìn)一步分析影響湖南省就業(yè)的因素。先將湖南省分為14個(gè)地域,即長(zhǎng)沙、婁底、衡陽(yáng)、常德、張家界、益陽(yáng)、郴州、懷化、湘西、株洲、邵陽(yáng)、岳陽(yáng)、永州、湘潭。再根據(jù)每個(gè)地區(qū)的7種經(jīng)濟(jì)類(lèi)型的就業(yè)人數(shù)分析影響就業(yè)的因素。這7種經(jīng)濟(jì)類(lèi)型分別是國(guó)有經(jīng)濟(jì)、城鎮(zhèn)集體經(jīng)濟(jì)、內(nèi)資經(jīng)濟(jì)、港澳臺(tái)經(jīng)濟(jì)、城鎮(zhèn)個(gè)體經(jīng)濟(jì)、城鎮(zhèn)私營(yíng)經(jīng)濟(jì)、外商經(jīng)濟(jì)。從因子分析的結(jié)果來(lái)看,部分地區(qū)存在一些經(jīng)濟(jì)發(fā)展不均衡的問(wèn)題。從聚類(lèi)分析的結(jié)果來(lái)看,長(zhǎng)沙在聚類(lèi)分析中被分到了第一類(lèi),就業(yè)情況是湖南省最好的;第二類(lèi)是衡陽(yáng)、邵陽(yáng)、岳陽(yáng)、懷化,這四個(gè)城市內(nèi)資經(jīng)濟(jì)與長(zhǎng)沙存在一定差距;第三類(lèi)是其他的地區(qū),這些地區(qū)的就業(yè)狀況有待提高,各個(gè)經(jīng)濟(jì)類(lèi)型就業(yè)相對(duì)不高,需要加快經(jīng)濟(jì)發(fā)展來(lái)提升就業(yè)率。最后,對(duì)本文所研究的問(wèn)題做了一個(gè)系統(tǒng)性的總結(jié)。即本文先依據(jù)相關(guān)數(shù)據(jù)進(jìn)行了湖南省下一年的就業(yè)率預(yù)測(cè),然后根據(jù)不同地區(qū)不同經(jīng)濟(jì)類(lèi)型分析影響就業(yè)的因素,并提出了相關(guān)對(duì)策。
[Abstract]:How to increase employment rate has always been a major issue related to people's livelihood and national social development. Many experts and scholars have carried on the thorough research to the employment situation, the employment existence question. This paper uses SPSS and Eviews software to study the employment problem in Hunan Province. First, the employment rate of Hunan Province is predicted by time series model. Then find out the factors that affect the employment of Hunan Province, and put forward corresponding strategies. The first step is to use descriptive statistics and SPSS software to analyze the economic changes and forms of economic development in Hunan Province in recent years. The results show that the economic level of Hunan Province rises steadily and the structure is optimized to meet the needs of market development. But for employment, Hunan Province has not achieved full employment, so it is necessary to further increase the employment rate. The second step is to establish a time series model by using Eviews software to predict the employment rate of Hunan Province in the next year. The process of data analysis in this paper is as follows: first, the collected data are checked, then the data is further processed until the data satisfies the stationary non-white noise sequence, and then the next step model is constructed. At last, the best analysis is selected for the next step. Employment rate data show that the employment rate in Hunan Province has risen steadily in the past ten years. In the third step, factor analysis and cluster analysis are used to further analyze the factors affecting employment in Hunan Province. Hunan is divided into 14 regions, namely Changsha, Loudi, Hengyang, Changde, Zhangjiajie, Yiyang, Chenzhou, Huaihua, Xiangxi, Zhuzhou, Shaoyang, Yueyang, Yongzhou, Xiangtan. Then according to the seven economic types of employment in each region, the factors affecting employment are analyzed. These seven economic types are state-owned economy, urban collective economy, domestic capital economy, Hong Kong, Macao and Taiwan economy, urban individual economy, urban private economy and foreign economy. From the result of factor analysis, there are some problems of unbalanced economic development in some areas. From the results of cluster analysis, Changsha is classified into the first category in cluster analysis, the employment situation is the best in Hunan Province, the second category is Hengyang, Shaoyang, Yueyang, Huaihua, these four cities have a certain gap between the domestic capital economy and Changsha. The third is the other regions, where the employment situation needs to be improved, and the employment of each type of economy is relatively low, so it is necessary to accelerate the economic development to increase the employment rate. Finally, the paper makes a systematic summary of the problems studied in this paper. This paper first forecasts the employment rate of Hunan Province next year based on the relevant data, then analyzes the factors affecting employment according to different economic types in different regions, and puts forward the relevant countermeasures.
【學(xué)位授予單位】：湘潭大學(xué)
【學(xué)位級(jí)別】：碩士
【學(xué)位授予年份】：2017
【分類(lèi)號(hào)】：F249.27

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