【摘要】：房地產(chǎn)業(yè)與城市經(jīng)濟(jì)發(fā)展相互制約、相互促進(jìn)。如何實(shí)現(xiàn)兩者協(xié)調(diào)發(fā)展,一直是全社會(huì)關(guān)注的熱點(diǎn)問題和研究主題。在“中部崛起戰(zhàn)略”背景下,中部六省省會(huì)城市經(jīng)濟(jì)發(fā)展進(jìn)入快速通道。同時(shí)2015年底開始,國(guó)內(nèi)房?jī)r(jià)格明顯上漲,其中中部六省省會(huì)城市房?jī)r(jià)漲幅最為嚴(yán)重,房地產(chǎn)與城市經(jīng)濟(jì)發(fā)展出現(xiàn)偏差,因此研究中部地區(qū)省會(huì)城市房地產(chǎn)業(yè)與城市經(jīng)濟(jì)之間的動(dòng)態(tài)協(xié)調(diào)發(fā)展,實(shí)現(xiàn)房地產(chǎn)調(diào)控政策的精準(zhǔn)性具有重要的理論價(jià)值和現(xiàn)實(shí)意義。本文擬研究中部六省省會(huì)城市房地產(chǎn)與城市經(jīng)濟(jì)協(xié)調(diào)發(fā)展,首先對(duì)中部六省省會(huì)城市房地產(chǎn)業(yè)與城市經(jīng)濟(jì)現(xiàn)狀及發(fā)展進(jìn)行了描述統(tǒng)計(jì)分析,并從土地財(cái)政、房地產(chǎn)投資結(jié)構(gòu)、房?jī)r(jià)收入比等角度對(duì)房地產(chǎn)業(yè)與城市經(jīng)濟(jì)不協(xié)調(diào)情況進(jìn)行了分析。然后在耦合協(xié)調(diào)度模型的框架下,構(gòu)建綜合評(píng)價(jià)指標(biāo)體系,測(cè)度2005-2014年各城市房地產(chǎn)與城市經(jīng)濟(jì)系統(tǒng)耦合協(xié)調(diào)度,從橫向、縱向角度分析其時(shí)空特征,依據(jù)耦合協(xié)調(diào)度值和滯后超前情況劃分不同協(xié)調(diào)類型城市,最后通過GM(1,1)模型演化2005-2020年中部地區(qū)省會(huì)城市房地產(chǎn)與城市經(jīng)濟(jì)耦合協(xié)調(diào)度的發(fā)展過程和等級(jí)格局。研究發(fā)現(xiàn):(1)2005-2014年中部地區(qū)省會(huì)城市城市經(jīng)濟(jì)系統(tǒng)增速整體高于房地產(chǎn)系統(tǒng),城市經(jīng)濟(jì)子系統(tǒng)發(fā)展領(lǐng)先。(2)2005-2014年,中部6省會(huì)城市的房地產(chǎn)與城市經(jīng)濟(jì)系統(tǒng)耦合度處于頡頏階段,尚未充分發(fā)揮促進(jìn)帶動(dòng)功效,即將跨入磨合階段,整體處于輕度失調(diào)階段,城市子系統(tǒng)相對(duì)比較滯后。(3)中部六省省會(huì)城市整體協(xié)調(diào)度曲線在2005-2010年為協(xié)調(diào)度波動(dòng)調(diào)整期,屬于輕度失調(diào)階段,在2011-2014年為協(xié)調(diào)度穩(wěn)步上升期,協(xié)調(diào)度D值保持穩(wěn)定上行,即將突破勉強(qiáng)協(xié)調(diào)階段,但其增速明顯放緩。(4)根據(jù)協(xié)調(diào)度及1 2uu值,將城市劃分為3種類型,其中合肥屬于輕度失調(diào)城市經(jīng)濟(jì)滯后型,太原、南昌屬于輕度失調(diào)房地產(chǎn)滯后型,武漢、鄭州、長(zhǎng)沙屬于瀕臨失調(diào)城市滯后型。(5)到2020年,中部六省省會(huì)城市房地產(chǎn)與城市經(jīng)濟(jì)耦合協(xié)調(diào)情況將形成武漢優(yōu)質(zhì)協(xié)調(diào),鄭州良好協(xié)調(diào),長(zhǎng)沙、合肥中級(jí)協(xié)調(diào),太原、南昌勉強(qiáng)協(xié)調(diào)的格局。(4)為促進(jìn)城市經(jīng)濟(jì)與房地產(chǎn)系統(tǒng)耦合協(xié)調(diào)發(fā)展,結(jié)合研究結(jié)果提出了針對(duì)各城市不同現(xiàn)狀的實(shí)有效、可行建議。
[Abstract]:Real estate industry and city economy development mutually restrict, promote each other. How to realize the harmonious development of the two has always been a hot issue and research topic of the whole society. Under the background of "Central rising Strategy", the economic development of provincial capitals of six central provinces has entered a fast passage. At the same time, since the end of 2015, domestic housing prices have risen significantly, with the most serious increase in housing prices in the provincial capitals of the six central provinces, and the deviation between real estate and urban economic development. Therefore, it is of great theoretical and practical significance to study the dynamic and coordinated development between the real estate industry and the urban economy of the provincial capital cities in the central region, and to realize the precision of the real estate regulation and control policies. This paper intends to study the coordinated development of real estate and urban economy in the provincial capitals of six central provinces. Firstly, it describes the present situation and development of real estate and urban economy in the six provincial capitals of central China, and analyzes the structure of land finance and real estate investment from the perspective of land finance and real estate investment structure. The paper analyzes the disharmony between real estate industry and urban economy from the angle of house price income ratio. Then, under the framework of coupling coordination degree model, a comprehensive evaluation index system is constructed to measure the coupling coordination degree between urban real estate and urban economic system from 2005 to 2014, and analyze its temporal and spatial characteristics from a horizontal and vertical perspective. According to the value of coupling coordination degree and the situation of lag ahead, different types of coordinated cities are divided. Finally, the development process and hierarchy of the coupling coordination degree between real estate and urban economy of provincial capital cities in central China from 2005 to 2020 is evolved by GM (1 / 1) model. The results show that: (1) from 2005 to 2014, the economic system of provincial capitals in central China grew faster than that of real estate, and the development of urban economic subsystem was in the lead. (2) from 2005 to 2014, the coupling degree between real estate and urban economic system in the six provincial capitals of central China was in an antagonistic stage. The efficiency of promoting driving has not been given full play, and it is about to enter the running-in stage, the whole is in the stage of slight imbalance, and the urban subsystem is relatively lagging behind. (3) the overall coordination degree curve of the provincial capitals of the six central provinces is the period of the fluctuation and adjustment of the coordination degree in 2005-2010. It belongs to the mild maladjustment stage. In the period 2011-2014, the coordination degree D value keeps steady upward and will break through the barely coordinated stage, but its growth rate obviously slows down. (4) according to the coordination degree and 1 2uu value, the city is divided into three types. Among them, Hefei belongs to the laggard type of light maladjusted city economy, Taiyuan and Nanchang belong to the lagged type of light misaligned real estate, Wuhan, Zhengzhou and Changsha belong to the lagging type of borderline maladjusted city. (5) by 2020, The coupling and coordination of real estate and urban economy in the provincial capitals of six central provinces will form high-quality coordination in Wuhan, good coordination in Zhengzhou, intermediate coordination in Changsha and Hefei, and Taiyuan, Nanchang reluctantly coordinated pattern. (4) in order to promote the coordinated development of urban economy and real estate system, combined with the research results, the paper puts forward some effective and feasible suggestions for different cities.
【學(xué)位授予單位】：華中農(nóng)業(yè)大學(xué)
【學(xué)位級(jí)別】：碩士
【學(xué)位授予年份】：2017
【分類號(hào)】：F299.27

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