典型資源型城市脆弱性評(píng)估及預(yù)測(cè)研究——以焦作—大慶—銅陵—白山市為例
發(fā)布時(shí)間：2018-09-07 17:37
【摘要】：目前,資源型城市脆弱性研究已經(jīng)成為推進(jìn)資源型城市可持續(xù)發(fā)展與社會(huì)現(xiàn)代化建設(shè)過(guò)程中關(guān)注的熱點(diǎn)問(wèn)題。文章以焦作—大慶—銅陵—白山市4個(gè)不同類型資源型城市為研究對(duì)象,運(yùn)用集對(duì)分析法(SPA)和趨勢(shì)外推法對(duì)其脆弱性進(jìn)行評(píng)估及預(yù)測(cè),以探究不同類型資源型城市脆弱性的變化規(guī)律,并揭示其脆弱性水平在未來(lái)10年的波動(dòng)特征并進(jìn)行對(duì)比分析。結(jié)果表明:2003-2015年間,各城市的脆弱性指數(shù)平均值呈銅陵市=焦作市白山市=大慶市,且截止到2015年,銅陵、焦作和大慶均處于中等脆弱水平,白山市處于較低脆弱水平;截止到2025年,白山市將會(huì)由2015年的較低脆弱水平下降至低脆弱度水平;大慶市將由中等脆弱度水平下降至低脆弱度水平;而銅陵和焦作市將會(huì)由中等脆弱度下降至較低脆弱度,這4個(gè)城市的脆弱性程度將呈銅陵市焦作市大慶市白山市。最后,結(jié)合實(shí)證結(jié)果,提出具體調(diào)控對(duì)策。
[Abstract]:At present, the research on vulnerability of resource-based cities has become a hot issue in the process of promoting sustainable development and social modernization of resource-based cities. In this paper, four different types of resource-based cities, Jiaozuo, Daqing, Tongling and Baishan City, were used to evaluate and predict their vulnerability by means of set pair analysis (SPA) and trend extrapolation. In order to explore the changes of vulnerability of different types of resource-based cities, and to reveal the fluctuation characteristics of vulnerability level in the next 10 years and to carry out a comparative analysis. The results showed that the average value of vulnerability index of each city was Tongling City = Baishan City = Daqing City from 2003 to 2015, and by 2015, Tongling, Jiaozuo and Daqing were all in the middle fragile level, while Baishan City was in the low fragile level. By 2025, Baishan will be reduced from a low vulnerability level in 2015 to a low vulnerability level; Daqing City will have a moderate vulnerability level to a low vulnerability level; and Tongling and Jiaozuo City will have a low vulnerability level from a moderate vulnerability level to a lower vulnerability level. The vulnerability of these four cities will be Tongling City Jiaozuo Daqing Baishan City. Finally, combined with the empirical results, specific control measures are put forward.
【作者單位】： 中國(guó)人民大學(xué)經(jīng)濟(jì)學(xué)院;河南財(cái)經(jīng)政法大學(xué)經(jīng)濟(jì)學(xué)院;江蘇師范大學(xué)商學(xué)院;
【基金】：國(guó)家自然科學(xué)基金項(xiàng)目(71272160;71673022)
【分類號(hào)】：F299.27
，
本文編號(hào)：2228951
[Abstract]:At present, the research on vulnerability of resource-based cities has become a hot issue in the process of promoting sustainable development and social modernization of resource-based cities. In this paper, four different types of resource-based cities, Jiaozuo, Daqing, Tongling and Baishan City, were used to evaluate and predict their vulnerability by means of set pair analysis (SPA) and trend extrapolation. In order to explore the changes of vulnerability of different types of resource-based cities, and to reveal the fluctuation characteristics of vulnerability level in the next 10 years and to carry out a comparative analysis. The results showed that the average value of vulnerability index of each city was Tongling City = Baishan City = Daqing City from 2003 to 2015, and by 2015, Tongling, Jiaozuo and Daqing were all in the middle fragile level, while Baishan City was in the low fragile level. By 2025, Baishan will be reduced from a low vulnerability level in 2015 to a low vulnerability level; Daqing City will have a moderate vulnerability level to a low vulnerability level; and Tongling and Jiaozuo City will have a low vulnerability level from a moderate vulnerability level to a lower vulnerability level. The vulnerability of these four cities will be Tongling City Jiaozuo Daqing Baishan City. Finally, combined with the empirical results, specific control measures are put forward.
【作者單位】： 中國(guó)人民大學(xué)經(jīng)濟(jì)學(xué)院;河南財(cái)經(jīng)政法大學(xué)經(jīng)濟(jì)學(xué)院;江蘇師范大學(xué)商學(xué)院;
【基金】：國(guó)家自然科學(xué)基金項(xiàng)目(71272160;71673022)
【分類號(hào)】：F299.27
，
本文編號(hào)：2228951
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