發(fā)布時(shí)間：2018-07-08 12:06

  本文選題：農(nóng)村人口轉(zhuǎn)移 + 城鎮(zhèn)化��； 參考：《中國(guó)人口·資源與環(huán)境》2017年05期

【摘要】：農(nóng)村人口轉(zhuǎn)移及城市集群發(fā)展加速城鎮(zhèn)化進(jìn)程,把握農(nóng)村人口轉(zhuǎn)移趨勢(shì),導(dǎo)引農(nóng)村人口有序轉(zhuǎn)移是推動(dòng)新型城鎮(zhèn)化建設(shè)的關(guān)鍵。長(zhǎng)株潭城市群一體化發(fā)展具有典型性和代表性,基于此,本文選擇湖南省和長(zhǎng)株潭城市群作為研究對(duì)象,探討農(nóng)村人口轉(zhuǎn)移趨勢(shì)及其空間指向。本文選擇人口發(fā)展方程和回歸分析兩種常見的人口總量預(yù)測(cè)方法測(cè)算湖南省2016—2030年人口總量,比較測(cè)算結(jié)果發(fā)現(xiàn)人口發(fā)展方程雖然在年增長(zhǎng)率的預(yù)設(shè)上具有一定的主觀性,但在長(zhǎng)期人口預(yù)測(cè)中表現(xiàn)出更好的適用性。在城鎮(zhèn)化率預(yù)測(cè)上,Logistic增長(zhǎng)模型具有廣泛的適用性。因此本文選擇人口發(fā)展方程和Logistic增長(zhǎng)模型,預(yù)測(cè)湖南省和長(zhǎng)株潭城市群2016—2030年的人口總量和城鎮(zhèn)化率,在此基礎(chǔ)上計(jì)算出人口城鄉(xiāng)分布的大致狀況,進(jìn)而估算農(nóng)村人口轉(zhuǎn)移趨勢(shì)。預(yù)測(cè)結(jié)果顯示2016—2030年間,湖南省和長(zhǎng)株潭城市群分別有大約980萬(wàn)和567萬(wàn)農(nóng)村人口向城市轉(zhuǎn)移,長(zhǎng)株潭城市群城鎮(zhèn)化率和農(nóng)村人口轉(zhuǎn)移進(jìn)程均領(lǐng)先于湖南省平均水平,尤其是城市群中心城市。據(jù)此,可得出結(jié)論:城鎮(zhèn)化進(jìn)程中的城市群發(fā)展在推動(dòng)農(nóng)村人口轉(zhuǎn)移中的作用突顯,農(nóng)村人口轉(zhuǎn)移空間指向城市群集聚,即城市群是引領(lǐng)城鎮(zhèn)化進(jìn)程的空間經(jīng)濟(jì)主體形態(tài),是農(nóng)村人口轉(zhuǎn)移的"牽引力",是農(nóng)村人口轉(zhuǎn)移空間指向的"內(nèi)聚力"。同時(shí),農(nóng)村人口加快向城市群聚集的趨勢(shì)也呼吁城市治理理念和治理模式的創(chuàng)新,智慧城市或是這一變革的最優(yōu)方案。
[Abstract]:Rural population transfer and urban cluster development accelerate the process of urbanization, grasp the trend of rural population transfer, guide the orderly transfer of rural population is the key to promote the construction of new urbanization. The integrated development of Changsha-Zhuzhou-Xiangtan urban agglomeration is typical and representative. Based on this, this paper chooses Hunan Province and Chang-Zhu-Tan urban agglomeration as the research object, and discusses the trend of rural population transfer and its spatial direction. In this paper, population development equation and regression analysis are used to estimate the population of Hunan province from 2016 to 2030. The results show that the population development equation is subjective in the presupposition of the annual growth rate. But in the long-term population projections show better applicability. Logistic growth model is widely applicable to the forecast of urbanization rate. Therefore, this paper chooses the population development equation and Logistic growth model to predict the total population and urbanization rate of Hunan Province and Chang-Zhuzhou-Xiangtan urban agglomeration in 2016-2030, and then calculates the general distribution of population in urban and rural areas. And then estimate the trend of rural population transfer. The forecast results show that between 2016 and 2030, Hunan province and Changsha-Zhuzhou-Xiangtan urban agglomeration have about 9.8 million and 5.67 million rural population transferring to cities, respectively, and the urbanization rate and rural population transfer process of Chang-Zhuzhou-Xiangtan urban agglomeration are both ahead of the average level of Hunan Province. Especially the urban agglomeration center city. On this basis, we can draw a conclusion that the role of urban agglomeration in the process of urbanization in promoting rural population transfer is prominent, and the space of rural population transfer points to agglomeration of urban agglomeration, that is, urban agglomeration is the main form of spatial economy leading the process of urbanization. It is the "traction" of rural population transfer and the cohesion of rural population transfer space. At the same time, the trend of rural population agglomeration to urban agglomeration also calls for the innovation of urban governance concept and governance model, intelligent city or the best solution of this change.
【作者單位】： 江蘇師范大學(xué)商學(xué)院;中國(guó)礦業(yè)大學(xué)管理學(xué)院;
【基金】：江蘇省社會(huì)科學(xué)基金項(xiàng)目“江蘇省智慧城市治理績(jī)效評(píng)價(jià)研究”(批準(zhǔn)號(hào):16GLC011) 江蘇省教育廳高校哲學(xué)社會(huì)科學(xué)項(xiàng)目“資源型城市群城鎮(zhèn)化問題研究”(批準(zhǔn)號(hào):2016SJB790032) 國(guó)家社會(huì)科學(xué)基金項(xiàng)目“長(zhǎng)三角及其經(jīng)濟(jì)腹地城市化空間格局優(yōu)化研究”(批準(zhǔn)號(hào):14BJL110)
【分類號(hào)】：F299.27;F323.6

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