本文選題：非均衡 + 房地產(chǎn)　； 參考：《云南財經(jīng)大學(xué)》2017年碩士論文

【摘要】：昆明市房地產(chǎn)市場起步相對較晚,發(fā)展卻較為迅速。十多年來,昆明市房價一路上漲,市場供求關(guān)系時常變動。時下,運用適當?shù)睦碚摵头椒ㄑ芯坷ッ魇蟹康禺a(chǎn)市場供求情況具有較強的現(xiàn)實指導(dǎo)意義。非均衡理論已被廣泛應(yīng)用于房地產(chǎn)市場研究領(lǐng)域,該理論認為市場非均衡是一種常態(tài),只有把經(jīng)濟非均衡度降到最小,才能實現(xiàn)資源的優(yōu)化配置。從數(shù)量調(diào)節(jié)入手,有助于進一步弄清昆明市房地產(chǎn)市場的供求現(xiàn)狀,在一定程度上解開房地產(chǎn)市場謎題。本文首先回顧了非均衡理論、房地產(chǎn)市場的研究動態(tài),并簡單地介紹了非均衡理論。其次,從總量、結(jié)構(gòu)兩個方面描述與分析了昆明市房地產(chǎn)市場供求發(fā)展現(xiàn)狀,并與其他城市做了橫向比較。再次,構(gòu)建了昆明市房地產(chǎn)市場非均衡計量模型,并測算、預(yù)測和解釋了昆明市房地產(chǎn)市場的供求非均衡度,并與其他城市所測算的非均衡度做了比較。最后,歸納本文研究結(jié)論,提出若干調(diào)控建議,指出文章研究不足。本文研究表明:近十多年來,昆明市房地產(chǎn)市場呈現(xiàn)出高增長、發(fā)展較不穩(wěn)定的特點。2003年昆明市房地產(chǎn)市場處于嚴重的供不應(yīng)求的非均衡狀態(tài),2004年處于極其嚴重的供不應(yīng)求的非均衡狀態(tài),2006、2009、2011、2012、2013年處于中度非均衡狀態(tài)。昆明市住宅商品房在總量上依然占據(jù)絕對優(yōu)勢地位,商業(yè)營業(yè)用房、辦公樓市場發(fā)展迅速。近三年來,昆明市房地產(chǎn)去庫存工作取得一定的成效,房地產(chǎn)市場有進一步向均衡狀態(tài)發(fā)展的趨勢。昆明市房地產(chǎn)市場需求方對價格變動的敏感程度要高于供給方,存在價格失靈現(xiàn)象。收入水平是影響昆明市房地產(chǎn)市場有效需求的重要因素。非均衡理論在昆明市房地產(chǎn)市場供求研究上具備一定的適用性。重慶、武漢兩市房地產(chǎn)市場發(fā)展模式具有一定的借鑒意義。
[Abstract]:Kunming real estate market started relatively late, but more rapid development. For more than a decade, housing prices in Kunming have risen all the way, and the market supply-demand relationship has changed frequently. Nowadays, it is of practical significance to study the supply and demand of real estate market in Kunming with appropriate theories and methods. The theory of disequilibrium has been widely used in the field of real estate market research. The theory holds that market disequilibrium is a kind of normality. Only by minimizing the degree of economic disequilibrium can the optimal allocation of resources be realized. It is helpful to further understand the supply and demand situation of real estate market in Kunming and to solve the puzzle of real estate market to some extent. This paper reviews the theory of disequilibrium and the research trends of real estate market, and briefly introduces the theory of disequilibrium. Secondly, this paper describes and analyzes the present situation of supply and demand of real estate market in Kunming from two aspects of total amount and structure, and makes a horizontal comparison with other cities. Thirdly, this paper constructs a non-equilibrium measurement model of real estate market in Kunming, and calculates, predicts and explains the supply and demand disequilibrium of real estate market in Kunming, and compares it with that measured by other cities. Finally, the conclusion of this paper is summarized, and some suggestions of regulation and control are put forward, and the insufficiency of the research is pointed out. This paper shows that the real estate market of Kunming City has shown high growth in the past ten years. In 2003, the real estate market in Kunming was in a serious state of imbalance between supply and demand, in 2004 it was in a state of extremely serious imbalance of supply over supply, and in 2004, it was in a state of non-equilibrium in 2006 / 2009 / 2011 / 2012and in 2013, it was in a state of moderate non-equilibrium. Kunming residential commercial housing in the total still occupies an absolute dominant position, commercial housing, office building market rapid development. In the past three years, the real estate destocking in Kunming has achieved certain results, and the real estate market has a trend of further development to a balanced state. The demand side of Kunming real estate market is more sensitive to the price change than the supply side. Income level is an important factor affecting the effective demand of real estate market in Kunming. The theory of disequilibrium has certain applicability in the research of supply and demand of real estate market in Kunming. Chongqing, Wuhan two cities real estate market development model has certain reference significance.
【學(xué)位授予單位】：云南財經(jīng)大學(xué)
【學(xué)位級別】：碩士
【學(xué)位授予年份】：2017
【分類號】：F299.23

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本文編號：1935109