本文選題：哈爾濱地鐵 + BOT項(xiàng)目��； 參考：《哈爾濱工業(yè)大學(xué)》2017年碩士論文

【摘要】：哈爾濱地鐵是中國正在建設(shè)的首個(gè)高寒地鐵系統(tǒng),在中國積極推進(jìn)PPP模式背景下,采用BOT融資模式解決建設(shè)資金,該項(xiàng)目具有投資規(guī)模大、收益率低、回收期長、利益相關(guān)者多等特點(diǎn),且所處環(huán)境處于不斷變化和發(fā)展之中,尤其目前中國除香港地鐵、北京地鐵4號線、北京地鐵機(jī)場線、上海地鐵1號線等外,從路網(wǎng)整體看,所有城市的軌道交通網(wǎng)絡(luò)幾乎都是虧損的,與社會資本追求經(jīng)濟(jì)價(jià)值的目標(biāo)不一致,不利于通過BOT模式吸引社會資本。在此背景下,本文以哈爾濱正在建設(shè)的地鐵項(xiàng)目為研究對象,結(jié)合哈爾濱地鐵設(shè)計(jì)與建設(shè)規(guī)劃的特點(diǎn),并充分考慮哈爾濱地處高寒地區(qū),客流和營收具有季節(jié)敏感性的特點(diǎn),分析哈爾濱地鐵BOT項(xiàng)目的融資結(jié)構(gòu),對哈爾濱地鐵項(xiàng)目的融資風(fēng)險(xiǎn)進(jìn)行綜合識別、準(zhǔn)確評估和合理分擔(dān)風(fēng)險(xiǎn)。本文在查閱國內(nèi)外相關(guān)文獻(xiàn)的基礎(chǔ)上,深入分析了項(xiàng)目融資的背景,結(jié)合哈爾濱地鐵BOT項(xiàng)目融資風(fēng)險(xiǎn)的特點(diǎn),通過核對表法和故障樹法進(jìn)行風(fēng)險(xiǎn)識別,然后運(yùn)用系統(tǒng)動力學(xué)vensim仿真分析模型對融資風(fēng)險(xiǎn)進(jìn)行仿真分析;基于仿真分析的結(jié)果,建立哈爾濱地鐵BOT項(xiàng)目融資風(fēng)險(xiǎn)的演化博弈模型,通過分析可以得到結(jié)論,在政府和社會投資機(jī)構(gòu)風(fēng)險(xiǎn)分擔(dān)的演化博弈過程中,社會投資機(jī)構(gòu)的前景價(jià)值、博弈雙方的獎(jiǎng)懲制度以及風(fēng)險(xiǎn)損失的分擔(dān)比例是影響項(xiàng)目融資雙方策略選擇的主要因素,這些因素之間相互聯(lián)系。并以2號線為例介紹了該模型的實(shí)際運(yùn)用方法。案例研究結(jié)果表明,本文構(gòu)建的模型,能夠?qū)?xiàng)目融資風(fēng)險(xiǎn)的合理分擔(dān)起到一定的借鑒作用。
[Abstract]:Harbin Metro is the first alpine subway system under construction in China. Under the background of actively promoting the PPP model in China, the BOT financing model is adopted to solve the construction fund. The project has large scale of investment, low rate of return and long payback period. There are many stakeholders, and the environment is constantly changing and developing. At present, apart from Hong Kong Metro, Beijing Metro Line 4, Beijing Metro Airport Line, Shanghai Metro Line 1 and so on, China is looking at the road network as a whole. Almost all urban rail transit networks are loss-making, which is inconsistent with the goal of social capital to pursue economic value, and is not conducive to attracting social capital through the BOT model. Under this background, this paper takes the subway project under construction in Harbin as the research object, combines the characteristics of Harbin subway design and construction planning, and fully considers that Harbin is located in the high and cold area, and the passenger flow and revenue are seasonally sensitive. This paper analyzes the financing structure of Harbin subway BOT project, comprehensively identifies the financing risk of Harbin subway project, and accurately evaluates and reasonably shares the risk. On the basis of consulting relevant literature at home and abroad, this paper deeply analyzes the background of project financing, combines the characteristics of the financing risk of Harbin Metro BOT project, and identifies the risk by checking list method and fault tree method. Then the system dynamics vensim simulation analysis model is used to simulate and analyze the financing risk. Based on the results of simulation analysis, the evolution game model of Harbin subway BOT project financing risk is established, and the conclusion can be obtained through the analysis. In the evolutionary game process of risk sharing between government and social investment institutions, the foreground value of social investment institutions, the reward and punishment system of both sides of the game and the proportion of risk loss are the main factors that affect the strategic choice of both sides of project financing. These factors are interrelated. Taking Line 2 as an example, the practical application method of the model is introduced. The results of the case study show that the model constructed in this paper can play a certain reference role in the rational sharing of project financing risk.
【學(xué)位授予單位】：哈爾濱工業(yè)大學(xué)
【學(xué)位級別】：碩士
【學(xué)位授予年份】：2017
【分類號】：F283;F572.6

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本文編號：1925934