本文選題：動(dòng)態(tài)隨機(jī)一般均衡模型 + 向量自回歸�。� 參考：《理論學(xué)刊》2017年02期

【摘要】：動(dòng)態(tài)隨機(jī)一般均衡框架下預(yù)測(cè)理論的發(fā)展,彌補(bǔ)了動(dòng)態(tài)隨機(jī)一般均衡模型在經(jīng)濟(jì)結(jié)構(gòu)分析和政策評(píng)估研究中的不足,不僅有助于更好地理解經(jīng)濟(jì)運(yùn)行狀況,同時(shí)也能夠?yàn)檎椭醒脬y行的政策制定提供理論支持和決策參考。隨著中國(guó)經(jīng)濟(jì)發(fā)展步入新常態(tài),如何進(jìn)一步為政府和央行提供前瞻性的政策指導(dǎo)尤為重要,因此,構(gòu)建包含中國(guó)宏觀經(jīng)濟(jì)結(jié)構(gòu)特質(zhì)性的動(dòng)態(tài)隨機(jī)一般均衡模型進(jìn)行預(yù)測(cè),對(duì)于探討國(guó)家政策的有效性、幫助政府部門靈活審慎地制定和推出旨在防止經(jīng)濟(jì)衰退的穩(wěn)定化宏觀經(jīng)濟(jì)調(diào)控政策具有積極的作用。
[Abstract]:The development of prediction theory under the framework of dynamic stochastic general equilibrium makes up for the deficiency of dynamic stochastic general equilibrium model in economic structure analysis and policy evaluation. At the same time, it can provide theoretical support and decision-making reference for government and central bank policy-making. As China's economic development enters the new normal, how to further provide forward-looking policy guidance for the government and the central bank is particularly important. Therefore, a dynamic stochastic general equilibrium model containing the characteristics of China's macroeconomic structure is constructed to predict it. It plays an active role in exploring the effectiveness of national policies and helping government departments to formulate and introduce stable macroeconomic control policies aimed at preventing economic recession.
【作者單位】： 東北師范大學(xué)經(jīng)濟(jì)學(xué)院;新罕布什爾大學(xué)經(jīng)濟(jì)系;
【分類號(hào)】：F224;F123.16

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本文編號(hào)：1882982