本文選題：房地產(chǎn)泡沫 + 指標(biāo)法�。� 參考：《安徽財(cái)經(jīng)大學(xué)》2017年碩士論文

【摘要】：自我國(guó)實(shí)施住房制度改革以來(lái),市場(chǎng)中被壓抑多年的住房需求逐步被釋放,中國(guó)城市住宅進(jìn)入商品房時(shí)代。隨著經(jīng)濟(jì)的不斷增長(zhǎng)、城市化進(jìn)程的不斷加速和城市房地產(chǎn)業(yè)投資的增加,房地產(chǎn)業(yè)得到了大力的發(fā)展,也逐漸成為我國(guó)國(guó)民經(jīng)濟(jì)的重要支柱。人們的居住條件在不斷改善,房地產(chǎn)業(yè)的發(fā)展不但促進(jìn)了經(jīng)濟(jì)的增長(zhǎng),也為解決民生問(wèn)題提供了有力的支持。但是,在房地產(chǎn)業(yè)高速發(fā)展的同時(shí),市場(chǎng)投機(jī)現(xiàn)象越來(lái)越嚴(yán)重,大量資金集中投向房地產(chǎn)業(yè),購(gòu)房者投機(jī)需求旺盛,開(kāi)發(fā)商囤地,一線城市和部分二線城市房?jī)r(jià)上漲過(guò)快等等。這些問(wèn)題的發(fā)生引起了社會(huì)高度的重視,國(guó)家也在不斷出臺(tái)調(diào)控房地產(chǎn)市場(chǎng)的政策,希望能夠解決這些問(wèn)題,使得房地產(chǎn)市場(chǎng)的發(fā)展是持續(xù)健康的。在房地產(chǎn)業(yè)高速發(fā)展的背后,我國(guó)房地產(chǎn)市場(chǎng)是否存在泡沫成為了社會(huì)輿論的焦點(diǎn)。事實(shí)上,世界上歷次房地產(chǎn)泡沫事件帶來(lái)的后果都是非常嚴(yán)重的,比如,美國(guó)佛羅里達(dá)州的房地產(chǎn)泡沫最終引發(fā)了20世紀(jì)30年代全球經(jīng)濟(jì)的大蕭條。因此,研究我國(guó)房地產(chǎn)市場(chǎng)是否存在泡沫以及如何有效防范房地產(chǎn)泡沫風(fēng)險(xiǎn)具有重大的意義。首先,本文回顧了國(guó)際上發(fā)生的美國(guó)、日本和愛(ài)爾蘭的房地產(chǎn)泡沫事件,從中獲取了一些啟示,發(fā)現(xiàn)政府、銀行和投機(jī)行為對(duì)房地產(chǎn)泡沫具有重要的推動(dòng)作用。然后,筆者對(duì)泡沫、房地產(chǎn)泡沫、泡沫經(jīng)濟(jì)和經(jīng)濟(jì)泡沫的含義進(jìn)行了闡述,還對(duì)房地產(chǎn)泡沫的形成機(jī)理和影響進(jìn)行了詳細(xì)的分析,認(rèn)為房地產(chǎn)價(jià)格、金融的支持、政府過(guò)度依賴“土地財(cái)政”和租購(gòu)選擇機(jī)制的缺失與房地產(chǎn)泡沫的生成存在一定的關(guān)系,并且分析了房地產(chǎn)泡沫帶來(lái)的負(fù)面影響,比如,導(dǎo)致社會(huì)資源配置失衡、威脅金融安全、影響宏觀經(jīng)濟(jì)系統(tǒng)的運(yùn)行、對(duì)社會(huì)心理和大眾行為造成負(fù)面影響。在對(duì)我國(guó)房地產(chǎn)泡沫測(cè)度之前,筆者先對(duì)房地產(chǎn)市場(chǎng)現(xiàn)狀進(jìn)行了分析,主要是分析了商品房的售價(jià)和房地產(chǎn)投資情況,總體來(lái)看我國(guó)的房?jī)r(jià)幾乎每年都在增長(zhǎng),相對(duì)于人們的收入水平,房?jī)r(jià)是偏高的。房地產(chǎn)投資額每年也在不斷增加,占GDP的比重也越來(lái)越大,從2009年以后,均保持在10%以上,對(duì)我國(guó)國(guó)民經(jīng)濟(jì)的發(fā)展具有很大的貢獻(xiàn)。對(duì)于我國(guó)房地產(chǎn)泡沫的測(cè)度,筆者通過(guò)選取的不同指標(biāo)分析我國(guó)房地產(chǎn)泡沫情況,并且采取因子分析法賦予各指標(biāo)權(quán)重,從而構(gòu)建綜合指數(shù)對(duì)我國(guó)房地產(chǎn)泡沫進(jìn)行測(cè)度,研究表明房地產(chǎn)泡沫是存在的。最后,筆者基于對(duì)房地泡沫的分析,以不同的視角為出發(fā)點(diǎn)提出了防范房地產(chǎn)泡沫的對(duì)策。這些對(duì)策具體而又細(xì)化,一是嚴(yán)控土地和資本無(wú)序涌入房地產(chǎn)市場(chǎng),二是完善房地產(chǎn)產(chǎn)品結(jié)構(gòu)和市場(chǎng)結(jié)構(gòu),三是規(guī)范和完善政府行為。
[Abstract]:Since the implementation of housing system reform in China, the demand for housing which has been suppressed for many years in the market has been gradually released, and Chinese urban housing has entered the age of commercial housing. With the continuous growth of economy, the acceleration of urbanization and the increase of investment in urban real estate, real estate industry has been vigorously developed, and has gradually become an important pillar of our national economy. People's living conditions are improving constantly. The development of real estate not only promotes economic growth, but also provides powerful support for solving livelihood problems. However, with the rapid development of real estate industry, the phenomenon of market speculation is becoming more and more serious. A large number of funds are concentrated on the real estate industry, property buyers have strong speculative demand, developers are hoarding land, housing prices in first-tier cities and some second-tier cities are rising too fast, and so on. The occurrence of these problems has caused a high degree of social attention, the country is also constantly introducing policies to regulate the real estate market, hoping to solve these problems, so that the development of the real estate market is sustainable and healthy. Behind the rapid development of the real estate industry, whether there is a bubble in the real estate market in China has become the focus of public opinion. In fact, the consequences of every real estate bubble in the world are very serious. For example, the real estate bubble in Florida led to the Great Depression of the global economy in the 1930s. Therefore, it is of great significance to study whether there is a bubble in China's real estate market and how to effectively prevent the risk of real estate bubble. Firstly, this paper reviews the real estate bubble events in the United States, Japan and Ireland, and finds that the government, banks and speculation play an important role in promoting the real estate bubble. Then, the author expounds the meaning of bubble, real estate bubble, bubble economy and economic bubble, and analyzes the formation mechanism and influence of real estate bubble in detail. The lack of government's excessive reliance on "land finance" and the mechanism of rent-purchase choice has certain relationship with the formation of real estate bubble, and analyzes the negative effects of the real estate bubble, such as, causing the imbalance of social resource allocation. Threatening financial security, affecting the operation of macroeconomic system, social psychology and public behavior have a negative impact. Before measuring the real estate bubble in China, the author analyzes the present situation of the real estate market, mainly analyzes the selling price and the real estate investment of the commercial housing. In general, the house prices in our country are increasing almost every year. Relative to people's income level, house prices are on the high side. The investment of real estate is increasing every year, and the proportion of real estate investment in GDP is more and more. Since 2009, it has been kept above 10%, which has made a great contribution to the development of our national economy. For the measurement of real estate bubble in China, the author analyzes the situation of real estate bubble in our country by selecting different indexes, and adopts factor analysis method to give each index weight, so as to construct a comprehensive index to measure the real estate bubble in China. Research shows that real estate bubbles exist. Finally, based on the analysis of the real estate bubble, the author puts forward the countermeasures to prevent the real estate bubble from different perspectives. These countermeasures are specific and detailed, one is to strictly control the disorder of land and capital into the real estate market, the other is to perfect the structure of real estate products and market, and the third is to standardize and perfect the government behavior.
【學(xué)位授予單位】：安徽財(cái)經(jīng)大學(xué)
【學(xué)位級(jí)別】：碩士
【學(xué)位授予年份】：2017
【分類(lèi)號(hào)】：F299.23

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