本文選題：應(yīng)急物資 + 混合儲備��； 參考：《北京交通大學(xué)》2017年碩士論文

【摘要】：自然災(zāi)害多發(fā)造成巨大損失,合理儲備救災(zāi)應(yīng)急物資是降低損失的有效途徑,但儲備本身也耗費(fèi)成本;目前普遍采用的實(shí)物儲備成本較高,儲備的物資品種和數(shù)量有限,無法有效滿足救災(zāi)需求,采用能力儲備可有效擴(kuò)大儲備規(guī)模,且成本相對較低,但應(yīng)急時效性和保障水平不如實(shí)物儲備;對于需求量大的重要物資,國家提倡將實(shí)物儲備和能力儲備混合使用,可取長補(bǔ)短,充分發(fā)揮應(yīng)急儲備的重要作用。儲備的目的在于以小成本防范大損失,在滿足需求的前提下,應(yīng)該盡量將儲備成本降到最低。要做到這點(diǎn),就需要制定合理的儲備策略,包括儲備方式及儲備規(guī)模決策。在此背景下,本文針對保質(zhì)期較長、通用性強(qiáng)、適宜儲備的救災(zāi)專用物資,結(jié)合我國應(yīng)急儲備現(xiàn)狀,綜合考慮關(guān)鍵影響因素,研究在實(shí)物儲備和生產(chǎn)能力儲備相結(jié)合的混合儲備模式下,使成本最小化并滿足應(yīng)急時效性和需求保障水平要求的儲備規(guī)模及不同儲備方式的儲備量分配決策問題。本文首先分析應(yīng)急儲備的現(xiàn)狀,明確了混合儲備方式的特點(diǎn)、適用范圍和實(shí)現(xiàn)途徑;然后分析混合儲備模式下影響儲備決策的關(guān)鍵因素,如需求、儲備成本、保障水平、時效性等;接著研究需求確定和需求隨機(jī)兩種情況下成本、應(yīng)急時效及保障水平的組成和度量,并假設(shè)區(qū)域內(nèi)只有一家供應(yīng)商的前提下,以響應(yīng)時間、保障能力為約束,以應(yīng)急物資供應(yīng)鏈總成本最小化為目標(biāo),分別建立了應(yīng)急物資混合儲備模式下的儲備量分配決策模型;最后引入地震災(zāi)害的算例,驗(yàn)證了兩個模型的可行性和有效性,并對需求、補(bǔ)貼、采購價格等影響因素做了敏感性分析。計算結(jié)果顯示在滿足需求和時間要求的前提下,通過設(shè)置合理的儲備結(jié)構(gòu),采用混合儲備比同等數(shù)量的純實(shí)物儲備節(jié)約成本,此外政府可通過調(diào)節(jié)價格等因素來優(yōu)化儲備結(jié)構(gòu)。總的來看,本文用定量分析的方法研究了應(yīng)急物資混合儲備的儲備量決策問題,豐富了應(yīng)急物資儲備的理論體系,同時也對解決目前應(yīng)急物資儲備存在的問題提供了一種思路。
[Abstract]:Natural disasters frequently cause huge losses, reasonable storage of emergency materials for disaster relief is an effective way to reduce losses, but reserves themselves also consume costs. At present, the cost of physical reserves is relatively high, and the variety and quantity of materials stored are limited. Unable to effectively meet disaster relief needs, the capacity reserve can effectively expand the size of the reserve, and the cost is relatively low, but the emergency timeliness and the level of protection are not as good as the physical reserve. The state advocates the mixed use of physical reserves and capacity reserves, which can complement each other and give full play to the important role of emergency reserves. The purpose of reserve is to prevent large losses with small cost, and the reserve cost should be reduced to the minimum under the premise of satisfying demand. To achieve this, we need to develop a reasonable reserve strategy, including reserve mode and size decision. Under this background, this paper considers the key influencing factors synthetically according to the current situation of emergency reserve in our country, aiming at the special relief materials with long shelf life, strong generality and suitable reserve. In this paper, under the mixed reserve mode of combining physical reserve with productive capacity reserve, the problem of reserve size and reserve allocation decision of different reserve modes is studied, which minimizes the cost and meets the requirements of emergency timeliness and demand support level. This paper first analyzes the current situation of emergency reserve, defines the characteristics, applicable scope and realization of mixed reserve mode, and then analyzes the key factors influencing reserve decision-making under the mixed reserve mode, such as demand, reserve cost, security level, etc. Then we study the composition and measurement of cost, emergency effectiveness and security level under the condition of demand determination and demand randomness, and assume that there is only one supplier in the region, which is constrained by response time and support ability. Aiming at minimizing the total cost of emergency material supply chain, the reserve allocation decision models under the mixed reserve model of emergency materials are established, and the feasibility and validity of the two models are verified by introducing the earthquake disaster example. And to demand, subsidy, purchase price and other factors for sensitivity analysis. The calculation results show that under the premise of satisfying the demand and time requirement, by setting up a reasonable reserve structure, the mixed reserve can save the cost compared with the pure physical reserve of the same quantity. In addition, the government can optimize the reserve structure by adjusting the price and other factors. In general, this paper studies the problem of reserve quantity decision of emergency material mixed reserve by quantitative analysis method, enriches the theoretical system of emergency material reserve, and provides a way of thinking to solve the problems existing in emergency material reserve at present.
【學(xué)位授予單位】：北京交通大學(xué)
【學(xué)位級別】：碩士
【學(xué)位授予年份】：2017
【分類號】：F251

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