本文選題：城鎮(zhèn)化 + 住宅產(chǎn)業(yè)化��； 參考：《吉林建筑大學》2017年碩士論文

【摘要】：近年來,我國城鎮(zhèn)化迅猛發(fā)展,城鎮(zhèn)人口逐年攀升,以這樣的發(fā)展趨勢進行預測,未來幾年,我國將邁入城鎮(zhèn)化發(fā)展的快車道。城市的擴容和人口的增加將對住房產(chǎn)生大量的需求,這將不僅是為房地產(chǎn)業(yè)的蓬勃發(fā)展帶來的巨大契機,更是其需要經(jīng)歷的一次嚴峻的挑戰(zhàn),因為,傳統(tǒng)房地產(chǎn)業(yè)已經(jīng)不能滿足日益發(fā)展的社會需求,必須轉(zhuǎn)變經(jīng)濟發(fā)展方式,考慮城市資源與環(huán)境的承載力,提高生產(chǎn)效率,提高發(fā)展質(zhì)量,與生態(tài)文明和兩型社會的建設(shè)相結(jié)合,促進建筑產(chǎn)業(yè)的轉(zhuǎn)型升級,住宅產(chǎn)業(yè)化是必然的選擇。然而,我國住宅產(chǎn)業(yè)化發(fā)展至今仍處于初級階段,具有諸多的發(fā)展瓶頸,例如,產(chǎn)業(yè)化住宅的建造成本一直居高不下、開發(fā)商開發(fā)意愿低、消費者缺乏住宅產(chǎn)業(yè)化意識、購買意愿低的情況下無法形成一定的市場需求度,未能形成規(guī)模經(jīng)濟和完整的產(chǎn)業(yè)鏈等,這些因素均導致了我國住宅產(chǎn)業(yè)化發(fā)展緩慢,甚至停滯不前。而住宅產(chǎn)業(yè)化對于建筑業(yè)實為革命性轉(zhuǎn)折,它不僅可以縮短建設(shè)周期,并且可以大大提升住宅的質(zhì)量和性能,同時只產(chǎn)生較少的建筑垃圾,低碳環(huán)保節(jié)能。為了我國建造水平的提高,在城鎮(zhèn)化進程突飛猛進的背景下對如何快速、高效的推動住宅產(chǎn)業(yè)化進行研究探討是非常有必要的。住宅產(chǎn)業(yè)是一項復雜的系統(tǒng)工程,其規(guī)模化發(fā)展受政策、經(jīng)濟、市場、技術(shù)等諸多因素的影響,各類因素之間相互作用,僅從某一方面不能全面剖析到系統(tǒng)的發(fā)展瓶頸。本文借助系統(tǒng)動力學的反饋理論,結(jié)合住宅產(chǎn)業(yè)化市場、城市經(jīng)濟等影響其發(fā)展的關(guān)鍵因素,構(gòu)建了推進我國住宅產(chǎn)業(yè)化發(fā)展的系統(tǒng)動力學模型,對其進行分析并繪制因果關(guān)系圖,之后識別各變量的屬性繪制系統(tǒng)流圖,建立模型方程,最后利用Vensim軟件對住宅產(chǎn)業(yè)化系統(tǒng)進行模擬,識別其內(nèi)部構(gòu)成和相互作用原理,理順內(nèi)部關(guān)系,識別問題根源,抓關(guān)鍵、略次要,提出相應的政策建議,以促進住宅產(chǎn)業(yè)化市場的快速、健康、可持續(xù)、規(guī)�；陌l(fā)展
[Abstract]:In recent years, with the rapid development of urbanization in China, the urban population is rising year by year. With this trend of development, China will enter the fast lane of urbanization in the next few years. The expansion of the city and the increase of the population will have a large demand for housing, which will not only bring a great opportunity for the booming development of the real estate industry, but also a severe challenge to the real estate industry, because, The traditional real estate industry can no longer meet the growing social needs. It is necessary to change the mode of economic development, consider the bearing capacity of urban resources and environment, improve production efficiency and improve the quality of development. With the combination of ecological civilization and the construction of two-type society to promote the transformation and upgrading of the construction industry housing industrialization is the inevitable choice. However, the development of housing industrialization in our country is still in the primary stage, which has many bottlenecks. For example, the construction cost of industrial housing has been high, developers have low willingness to develop, and consumers lack the awareness of housing industrialization. Under the condition of low willingness to purchase, it is impossible to form a certain degree of market demand, fail to form a scale economy and a complete industrial chain, all of these factors lead to the slow development or even stagnation of housing industrialization in China. Housing industrialization is a revolutionary turning point for the construction industry, it can not only shorten the construction cycle, but also greatly improve the quality and performance of housing, at the same time, only produce less construction waste, low carbon environmental protection and energy saving. In order to improve the construction level of our country, it is very necessary to study how to promote the housing industrialization quickly and efficiently under the background of the rapid development of urbanization. Housing industry is a complex system engineering, its large-scale development is affected by many factors, such as policy, economy, market, technology and so on. Based on the feedback theory of system dynamics and the key factors affecting the development of housing industrialization market and urban economy, this paper constructs a system dynamics model to promote the development of housing industrialization in China. Analyzing and drawing causality diagram, then identifying the attributes of each variable to draw the system flow diagram, establish the model equation, finally use Vensim software to simulate the housing industrialization system, identify its internal composition and interaction principle. Straighten out the internal relations, identify the root causes of the problem, grasp the key, slightly secondary, put forward the corresponding policy recommendations, in order to promote the rapid, healthy, sustainable and large-scale development of the housing industrialization market.
【學位授予單位】：吉林建筑大學
【學位級別】：碩士
【學位授予年份】：2017
【分類號】：F299.21;F299.23

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