本文選題：克強指數(shù)　切入點：經(jīng)濟發(fā)展水平　出處：《中國科學(xué)技術(shù)大學(xué)》2017年碩士論文

【摘要】：2017年1月,一則"遼寧省政府公開承認(rèn)GDP造假"的新聞在社會上引起了巨大反響。關(guān)于經(jīng)濟數(shù)據(jù)的真實性再次引發(fā)了社會公眾的質(zhì)疑。"克強指數(shù)"的誕生則是為了消除人們對于政府公布的GDP的疑慮,更加真實的還原國家的經(jīng)濟發(fā)展情況。"克強指數(shù)"一詞最早來自于2007年時任職遼寧省委書記的李克強總理考核遼寧省整體經(jīng)濟狀況的一種方法,它起初由3個基礎(chǔ)指標(biāo)——工業(yè)用電量、銀行中長期貸款發(fā)放量、鐵路貨運量構(gòu)成。之后在2015年的政府工作報告上,李克強總理將3個基本指標(biāo)變更為:研究與試驗發(fā)展經(jīng)費支出占GDP比重、銀行中長期貸款發(fā)放量、能耗強度。本文的主要工作在于借鑒花旗銀行編制第一代"克強指數(shù)"的方法和目的,構(gòu)造第二代"克強指數(shù)"。本文首先通過Pearson相關(guān)性檢驗和回歸理論證明3個基礎(chǔ)指標(biāo)的可靠性,接著使用主成分分析法、熵權(quán)法、灰色關(guān)聯(lián)分析法3種方法完成初始賦權(quán)工作,之后通過合作博弈的方法完成第二代"克強指數(shù)"的最終構(gòu)造,最后以"人均可支配收入"為參照標(biāo)桿,對第二代"克強指數(shù)"構(gòu)造的可行性加以驗證。
[Abstract]:In January 2017, the news that the Liaoning provincial government publicly acknowledged the GDP fraud caused a huge social response.The authenticity of economic data has once again raised questions from the public. "The Keqiang Index was "created to dispel doubts about the government's announcement of GDP and to restore the country's economic development more realistically."The term "Ke Qiang Index" first came from a method used by Premier Li Keqiang, who was secretary of the Liaoning Provincial Party Committee in 2007, to assess the overall economic situation of Liaoning Province. It was initially made up of three basic indicators-industrial electricity consumption and the amount of medium- and long-term loans issued by banks.Railway freight volume composition.Then in the 2015 government work report, Premier Li Keqiang changed three basic indicators to: the proportion of research and experimental development expenditure to GDP, the amount of long-term loans issued by banks, and the intensity of energy consumption.The main work of this paper is to draw lessons from the method and purpose of compiling the first generation "Keqiang Index" by Citibank, and construct the second Generation "Keqiang Index".In this paper, the reliability of the three basic indexes is first proved by Pearson correlation test and regression theory, and then the three methods of principal component analysis, entropy weight and grey correlation analysis are used to complete the initial weighting work.Then the final construction of the second generation "Keqiang Index" is completed by the cooperative game method, and the feasibility of the second generation "Keqiang Index" is verified by taking "per capita disposable income" as the reference bar.
【學(xué)位授予單位】：中國科學(xué)技術(shù)大學(xué)
【學(xué)位級別】：碩士
【學(xué)位授予年份】：2017
【分類號】：F224;F124

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