本文選題：房地產(chǎn)　切入點(diǎn)：投資決策　出處：《西南交通大學(xué)》2017年碩士論文　論文類型：學(xué)位論文

【摘要】：房地產(chǎn)業(yè)已經(jīng)告別了高速增長的黃金時代,進(jìn)入了白銀時代。近年來,房地產(chǎn)行業(yè)整體產(chǎn)能過剩的現(xiàn)象十分突出,部分地區(qū)或產(chǎn)品的供給大于需求,房地產(chǎn)開發(fā)商的利潤也被不斷壓縮。隨著市場的規(guī)范程度加強(qiáng),金融政策更加嚴(yán)格,使得房地產(chǎn)公司前期投入的運(yùn)營資金也越來越多,如果不能快速銷售及回籠資金,投資者的資金鏈隨時存在斷裂的風(fēng)險(xiǎn)。加之政府對地價、房價的不斷調(diào)控,開發(fā)商拿地時要考慮和預(yù)判的因素也越來越多。以上原因?qū)е麻_發(fā)商對房地產(chǎn)投資更加理性和謹(jǐn)慎。因此,只有在進(jìn)行房地產(chǎn)投資前,對項(xiàng)目做一個全面、清晰的了解,并對項(xiàng)目做一套完整科學(xué)的可行性研究,才能做出正確的投資決策,并在今后的開發(fā)運(yùn)營中取得收益,否則,盲目的投資必然會帶來不可估量的風(fēng)險(xiǎn)。本篇論文首先對房地產(chǎn)投資決策的概念及特征進(jìn)行了概述、然后著重對房地產(chǎn)投資過程中的決策內(nèi)容、使用方法和具體程序進(jìn)行了詳細(xì)闡釋。最后選取了中糧地產(chǎn)成都公司擬投資開發(fā)的成都武侯新城RY房地產(chǎn)項(xiàng)目進(jìn)行投資決策分析。分析的方法為,首先介紹了項(xiàng)目基本情況,包括開發(fā)商介紹、項(xiàng)目區(qū)位,規(guī)劃條件等;其次對項(xiàng)目的投資環(huán)境,包括宏觀經(jīng)濟(jì)環(huán)境、政策環(huán)境、市場環(huán)境等進(jìn)行分析,并選取了項(xiàng)目周邊競品進(jìn)行詳細(xì)的研究,基于市場調(diào)查法推導(dǎo)出本項(xiàng)目各產(chǎn)品的價格;再次,結(jié)合本項(xiàng)目的規(guī)劃指標(biāo),概算出項(xiàng)目的投資成本,同時對產(chǎn)品的銷售進(jìn)度進(jìn)行排布,測算出該項(xiàng)目的各項(xiàng)經(jīng)濟(jì)指標(biāo),包括銷售凈利率,內(nèi)部收益率,凈現(xiàn)值,投資回收期等,通過這些指標(biāo)對項(xiàng)目的經(jīng)濟(jì)效益做出評判;再次采用敏感性分析對在不同地價及銷售價格下的財(cái)務(wù)指標(biāo)做出計(jì)算,對項(xiàng)目的不確定性進(jìn)行了估計(jì)。最后,通過以上分析,得出項(xiàng)目投資決策的結(jié)果和定論。本文將MBA所學(xué)的各種知識,如投資學(xué)、財(cái)務(wù)管理學(xué)、項(xiàng)目管理學(xué)等,與日常工作中的經(jīng)驗(yàn)相結(jié)合,對房地產(chǎn)項(xiàng)目投資決策進(jìn)行了研究,旨在為房地產(chǎn)投資者提供一套完整而全面的決策體系和工具,對房地產(chǎn)投資決策有重要的現(xiàn)實(shí)意義。
[Abstract]:The real estate industry has left the golden age of rapid growth and entered the silver era. In recent years, the phenomenon of overcapacity in the real estate industry as a whole has become very prominent, with the supply of some areas or products exceeding demand. The profits of real estate developers have also been continuously compressed. As the market has become more standardized and the financial policy has become more stringent, more and more operating capital has been invested by real estate companies in the early stages. If the funds cannot be sold and withdrawn quickly, There is a risk that the investor's capital chain will break at any time. In addition to the government's constant regulation of land prices and house prices, There are more and more factors to be considered and forecasted when developers take the land. The above causes developers to invest in real estate more rationally and cautiously. Therefore, only before making real estate investment, do a comprehensive and clear understanding of the project. And make a complete set of scientific feasibility study to make the right investment decision, and in the future development and operation of the income, otherwise, Blind investment will inevitably bring incalculable risk. This paper first summarizes the concept and characteristics of real estate investment decision, and then focuses on the content of real estate investment decision-making. Finally, the author chooses the real estate project of Chengdu Wuhou New City, Chengdu, which is to be invested and developed by Cofco Real Estate Company, to make investment decision analysis. The analysis method is as follows: firstly, the basic situation of the project is introduced. Including developer introduction, project location, planning conditions, etc. Secondly, the investment environment of the project, including the macroeconomic environment, policy environment, market environment and so on, is analyzed, and the competitive products around the project are selected for detailed study. Based on the method of market investigation, the price of each product of the project is deduced. Thirdly, combining the planning index of the project, the investment cost of the project is estimated, and at the same time, the schedule of sales of the product is arranged, and the various economic indicators of the project are calculated. Including the net interest rate of sales, internal rate of return, net present value, investment payback period, etc. Through these indicators, the economic benefits of the project are evaluated. Again, sensitivity analysis is used to calculate the financial indicators under different land prices and sales prices. The uncertainty of the project is estimated. Finally, through the above analysis, the results and conclusions of the project investment decision are obtained. In this paper, MBA will learn a variety of knowledge, such as investment, financial management, project management, etc. Combining with the experience of daily work, this paper studies the investment decision of real estate project, aiming at providing a set of complete and comprehensive decision-making system and tool for the real estate investors, which has important practical significance for the real estate investment decision.
【學(xué)位授予單位】：西南交通大學(xué)
【學(xué)位級別】：碩士
【學(xué)位授予年份】：2017
【分類號】：F299.23

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