本文選題：勞動力供給　切入點：灰色GM(1　出處：《安徽大學》2017年碩士論文　論文類型：學位論文

【摘要】：據(jù)統(tǒng)計顯示,安徽省于1998年進入老齡化社會,隨著時間的推移,老齡化程度不斷加深,而與之對應的則是勞動力人口的減少,調(diào)查顯示安徽省勞動力人口比重從2010年開始下降,由2010年的67.21%下降2014年的63.3%,其中青壯年勞動力供給數(shù)量下降尤為明顯,16-35歲年齡段人口每年減少20-30萬人。所以做好對勞動力供求的預測,提前制定相應的政策來應對接踵而來的各項問題現(xiàn)在顯得尤為重要。本文首先對安徽勞動力供給和需求現(xiàn)狀進行了描述分析,從勞動力供給的角度來看,安徽省總?cè)丝诔示徛仙畱B(tài),人口出現(xiàn)老齡化趨勢,0-14歲年齡組的人口比重下降比較快,從2000年的25.49下降到2015年的18.21%,減少了將近個7百分點。15-64歲年齡組人口比重占70%左右并且出現(xiàn)上升趨勢,隨著安徽省人口老齡化的加重,適齡勞動人口的數(shù)量增長將逐漸減慢。人口教育程度穩(wěn)步提高,但受高等教育人群的比重仍較低勞動者整體文化水平偏低,教育水平仍較為落后,勞動者素質(zhì)總體偏低,以小學和初中文化程度為主,高學歷人才匱乏。從勞動力需求的角度來看,安徽省對勞動力需求平穩(wěn)增長。鄉(xiāng)村從業(yè)人員占比最高,尤其是在2000-2005年間,鄉(xiāng)村從業(yè)人員總數(shù)在占據(jù)了從業(yè)人員總數(shù)八成以上,隨著城鎮(zhèn)化的進程,鄉(xiāng)村從業(yè)人員比例呈現(xiàn)下滑趨勢,2000年為81.8%,2015年下降為70.2%,第二產(chǎn)業(yè)和第三產(chǎn)業(yè)人口數(shù)量逐漸上升,第一產(chǎn)業(yè)就業(yè)人口數(shù)量逐漸下降,就業(yè)人口從第一產(chǎn)業(yè)逐漸向第二產(chǎn)業(yè)和第三產(chǎn)業(yè)轉(zhuǎn)移,交通運輸、倉儲和郵政業(yè)發(fā)展迅速。本文預測了 2016-2025年安徽省勞動力供給和需求數(shù)量。預測勞動力供給時,本文采用了灰色BP神經(jīng)網(wǎng)絡算法,首先運用灰色預測算法建立GM(1,1)預測模型對常住人口、出生率、死亡率、人口流入、人口流出等5個影響勞動力人口的因素進行預測,然后結(jié)合BP神經(jīng)網(wǎng)絡算法加入5個勞動力影響因素進行訓練進而預測出未來勞動力人口的發(fā)展數(shù)據(jù)。預測勞動力需求時,先根據(jù)2006-2015年的數(shù)據(jù)建立勞動力需求關于地區(qū)總量、資本投入和技術(shù)進步的多元線性回歸模型,再利用灰色預測算法建立GM(1,1)預測模型,預測出未來10年地區(qū)總量、資本投入和技術(shù)進的數(shù)據(jù);代入回歸模型得到2016-2025年安徽省勞動力需求,在上述分析的基礎上,本文預測出安徽省未來10年的勞動力供求缺口,發(fā)現(xiàn)未來十年安徽省勞動力供不應求現(xiàn)象明顯。根據(jù)上述分析結(jié)果,本文提出了積極響應國家二胎政策、提高勞動者素質(zhì)、完善勞動力的就業(yè)服務體系、完善用工環(huán)境,提高工資待遇和推進多層次的專業(yè)教育等五個方面的政策建議。
[Abstract]:According to statistics, Anhui Province entered an aging society in 1998. With the passage of time, the degree of aging has been deepening, and corresponding to the decrease of the labor force population, the survey shows that the proportion of the labor force population in Anhui Province has been declining since 2010. From 67.21% in 2010 to 63.3 in 2014, the decline in the supply of labor in the young and middle-aged is especially marked by a reduction of 20-300, 000 people per year in the 16-35 age group. So make a good forecast of the supply and demand of the labor force. It is particularly important to formulate corresponding policies in advance to deal with the problems that follow. This paper first describes and analyzes the current situation of labor supply and demand in Anhui Province, and looks at it from the point of view of labor supply. The total population of Anhui Province is rising slowly, and the proportion of the population in the 0-14 age group decreases rapidly. From 25.49 on 2000 to 18.21 on 2015, the proportion of the population in the age group of 15 to 64 years decreased by nearly 7 percentage points, accounting for about 70% and showing an upward trend. With the population aging in Anhui Province, The increase in the number of the working-age population will gradually slow down. The education level of the population will increase steadily, but the proportion of the population receiving higher education is still relatively low, the overall cultural level of the workers is still low, the education level is still relatively backward, and the overall quality of the workers is on the low side. Primary and junior high school education is the main factor, and highly educated talents are scarce. From the point of view of labor demand, the demand for labor in Anhui Province has grown steadily. Rural employees account for the highest proportion, especially between 2000 and 2005. The total number of rural employees accounts for more than 80% of the total number of employees. With the process of urbanization, the proportion of rural employees shows a downward trend, from 81.8 in 2000 to 70.2 in 2015. The population of the secondary and tertiary industries has gradually increased. The number of employed people in the primary industry has gradually decreased, and the employed population has gradually shifted from the primary industry to the secondary industry and the tertiary industry. The storage and post industry is developing rapidly. This paper forecasts the quantity of labor supply and demand in Anhui Province from 2016 to 2025. When forecasting labor supply, the paper adopts the grey BP neural network algorithm. First of all, the grey prediction algorithm is used to establish the GM1 / 1) forecasting model to predict the five factors that affect the labor force population, such as resident population, birth rate, mortality rate, population inflow and population outflow. Then the BP neural network algorithm is combined with five labor force influencing factors to train and predict the development data of the future labor force population. When forecasting the labor demand, first, according to the data from 2006 to 2015, the total amount of labor demand in the region is established. The multivariate linear regression model of capital investment and technological progress, and the GM1 / 1) prediction model based on grey prediction algorithm are used to predict the regional total amount, capital investment and technological advance data in the next 10 years. The labor demand of Anhui Province in 2016-2025 is obtained by means of regression model. Based on the above analysis, this paper predicts the shortage of labor supply and demand in Anhui Province in the next 10 years. It is found that the supply of labor force in Anhui Province in the next ten years is obviously short of supply. According to the above analysis results, this paper puts forward a positive response to the national policy of two births, improving the quality of workers, perfecting the employment service system of the labor force, and perfecting the employment environment. Raise salary and promote multi-level professional education and other five aspects of policy recommendations.
【學位授予單位】：安徽大學
【學位級別】：碩士
【學位授予年份】：2017
【分類號】：F249.27

【參考文獻】

相關期刊論文 前10條

1 吳啟凡;;多元回歸與年齡移算法在老齡人口研究中的整合分析[J];西北人口;2015年04期

2 耿德偉;;改革開放以來的中國勞動力投入增長及未來發(fā)展趨勢[J];發(fā)展研究;2014年09期

3 高玉明;張仁津;;基于遺傳算法和BP神經(jīng)網(wǎng)絡的房價預測分析[J];計算機工程;2014年04期

4 童玉芬;;人口老齡化過程中我國勞動力供給變化特點及面臨的挑戰(zhàn)[J];人口研究;2014年02期

5 李剛;;勞動力短缺的多維解析與破解路徑[J];經(jīng)濟學家;2014年03期

6 石榮;;基于灰色關聯(lián)分析的就業(yè)影響因素分析[J];經(jīng)濟研究導刊;2013年23期

7 李賓;馬九杰;;勞動力供給保障水平、“民工荒”成因與宏觀經(jīng)濟影響[J];經(jīng)濟與管理研究;2013年07期

8 梁穎;陳佳鵬;;日本失去的二十年——基于中日人口紅利比較的視角[J];人口學刊;2013年04期

9 蔣遠營;;基于年齡移算法的人口預測[J];統(tǒng)計與決策;2012年13期

10 鄧W，

本文編號：1563345