發(fā)布時(shí)間：2018-02-26 02:32

  本文關(guān)鍵詞： 房?jī)r(jià)收入比 貨幣供應(yīng) 銀行信貸 GMM法　出處：《金融理論與實(shí)踐》2017年05期 　論文類型：期刊論文

【摘要】：近年我國(guó)房?jī)r(jià)急劇上漲所形成的泡沫問題已成為可能誘發(fā)系統(tǒng)性金融風(fēng)險(xiǎn)的重要因素。以房?jī)r(jià)收入比作為衡量房地產(chǎn)價(jià)格泡沫的評(píng)價(jià)指標(biāo),基于2006—2015年我國(guó)35個(gè)大中城市的面板數(shù)據(jù),運(yùn)用動(dòng)態(tài)GMM法實(shí)證檢驗(yàn)了貨幣供應(yīng)、銀行信貸對(duì)房地產(chǎn)價(jià)格泡沫的影響作用。結(jié)果表明:我國(guó)房地產(chǎn)價(jià)格泡沫存在跨期動(dòng)態(tài)傳遞效應(yīng),貨幣供應(yīng)量和銀行信貸對(duì)房地產(chǎn)價(jià)格泡沫有顯著的正向影響,固定資產(chǎn)投資、產(chǎn)業(yè)結(jié)構(gòu)、城市化等亦對(duì)房地產(chǎn)價(jià)格泡沫產(chǎn)生不同程度影響,而上述因素的作用效應(yīng)在房地產(chǎn)價(jià)格不同泡沫程度區(qū)域呈現(xiàn)異質(zhì)性特征。鑒于此,中央政府有必要調(diào)整相對(duì)寬松的貨幣政策和房地產(chǎn)信貸政策,采取"因城施策"的差異化調(diào)控機(jī)制,有效抑制房地產(chǎn)泡沫。
[Abstract]:In recent years, the bubble problem caused by the sharp rise of house price in China has become an important factor that may induce systemic financial risk. The ratio of house price to income is taken as the evaluation index of real estate price bubble. Based on panel data of 35 large and medium-sized cities in China from 2006 to 2015, this paper empirically tests the effect of money supply and bank credit on real estate price bubble by using dynamic GMM method. Money supply and bank credit have significant positive effects on real estate price bubbles. Fixed asset investment, industrial structure, urbanization and so on also have different effects on real estate price bubbles. The effects of these factors are heterogeneous in different bubble regions of real estate prices. In view of this, it is necessary for the central government to adjust the relatively loose monetary policy and the real estate credit policy. Adopt the differential regulation mechanism of "because of city strategy", restrain the real estate bubble effectively.
【作者單位】： 四川大學(xué)經(jīng)濟(jì)學(xué)院;
【分類號(hào)】：F299.23;F822.2;F832.4

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本文編號(hào)：1536190