本文關(guān)鍵詞： 競爭博弈 層次分析法 支付函數(shù) 納什均衡　出處：《北京交通大學(xué)》2017年碩士論文　論文類型：學(xué)位論文

【摘要】：近年來,高速鐵路在中國發(fā)展迅速。高速鐵路的建設(shè)既有利于緩解鐵路運(yùn)輸供不應(yīng)求的狀況,也促進(jìn)了沿線城市經(jīng)濟(jì)的快速發(fā)展。但同時(shí),由于高速鐵路與民航提供的運(yùn)輸服務(wù)具有很大的一致性,所以導(dǎo)致雙方在客運(yùn)市場中存在激烈的競爭關(guān)系。運(yùn)輸市場中高鐵與民航的競爭本質(zhì)就是雙方均以實(shí)現(xiàn)效益最大化為目標(biāo),增大自身效益最主要的一個(gè)方面就是在制定合理的價(jià)格范圍內(nèi)吸引更多的客流,而吸引客流就是要通過自己的營銷策略改變旅客的出行選擇,使旅客在選擇交通方式時(shí)更加傾向于自己的一方。如何吸引旅客,首先必須確定有哪些因素會(huì)影響旅客的選擇,而這些因素直接關(guān)系旅客的選擇偏好。所以在票價(jià)決策過程中必須要考慮影響旅客出行的因素,以及旅客的選擇偏好。本文選擇快速性、經(jīng)濟(jì)性、舒適性、便捷性、安全性五個(gè)影響因素,并利用層次分析法(AHP)確定了各個(gè)指標(biāo)的權(quán)重系數(shù),進(jìn)而確立旅客選擇各個(gè)交通方式的支付函數(shù)。運(yùn)用重力模型對(duì)兩地間的客流進(jìn)行預(yù)測(cè),在此基礎(chǔ)上建立高速鐵路和民航的博弈競爭納什均衡模型,并選擇運(yùn)用粒子群優(yōu)化算法求解模型,雙方均以效益最大化為目標(biāo)選擇票價(jià)策略。最后,本文以武漢-廣州運(yùn)輸通道間的高鐵與民航作為分析對(duì)象,結(jié)果顯示現(xiàn)階段高鐵和民航的票價(jià)均高于博弈均衡后的票價(jià),說明兩地間高鐵和民航的票價(jià)還不夠合理,旅客對(duì)于票價(jià)較為敏感。本文在此基礎(chǔ)上分別為高鐵和民航提出了相應(yīng)的優(yōu)化建議。
[Abstract]:In recent years, high-speed railway has developed rapidly in China. The construction of high-speed railway not only helps alleviate the shortage of railway transport supply, but also promotes the rapid development of urban economy along the line. Because of the great consistency between the transport services provided by high-speed railways and civil aviation, Therefore, there is a fierce competitive relationship between the two sides in the passenger transport market. The essence of the competition between high-speed rail and civil aviation in the transport market is that both sides aim at maximizing benefits. One of the most important aspects of increasing one's own benefits is to attract more passengers within a reasonable price range, and to attract passengers is to change their travel choices through their own marketing strategies. Make passengers more inclined to their own side when choosing the mode of transportation. In order to attract passengers, first of all, we must determine what factors will affect the choice of passengers. These factors are directly related to the choice preference of passengers. Therefore, in the process of fare decision, we must consider the factors that affect the travel of passengers, as well as the choice preferences of passengers. The weight coefficient of each index is determined by using the analytic hierarchy process (AHP), and the payment function of passengers choosing each mode of transportation is established. The gravity model is used to predict the passenger flow between the two places. On this basis, the game competition Nash equilibrium model of high-speed railway and civil aviation is established, and the particle swarm optimization algorithm is used to solve the model. This paper takes the high-speed rail and civil aviation between Wuhan and Guangzhou as the analysis object. The results show that the ticket price of high-speed rail and civil aviation is higher than that of game equilibrium at the present stage, which shows that the ticket price of high-speed rail and civil aviation between the two places is not reasonable enough. Passengers are more sensitive to fares. On this basis, this paper puts forward corresponding optimization suggestions for high-speed rail and civil aviation respectively.
【學(xué)位授予單位】：北京交通大學(xué)
【學(xué)位級(jí)別】：碩士
【學(xué)位授予年份】：2017
【分類號(hào)】：F224.32;F512.5

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