本文關(guān)鍵詞： 區(qū)域物流 差異驅(qū)動要素 面板數(shù)據(jù) 模型灰色預(yù)測　出處：《華僑大學(xué)》2017年碩士論文　論文類型：學(xué)位論文

【摘要】：海峽西岸經(jīng)濟(jì)區(qū)(海西)作為我國東南沿海最為重要的區(qū)域經(jīng)濟(jì)綜合體之一,在國家宏觀政策的強(qiáng)有力扶持和引導(dǎo)下,已然是國家對接臺灣以及21世紀(jì)海上絲綢之路的重要門戶,地區(qū)物流發(fā)展水平也顯著提升。然而,由于海西內(nèi)部各地區(qū)之間存在資源稟賦、產(chǎn)業(yè)基礎(chǔ)、區(qū)位交通、政策環(huán)境等因素的影響,使得各地區(qū)間物流業(yè)發(fā)展難免產(chǎn)生區(qū)域非均衡性,適度的非均衡空間,對區(qū)域物流的穩(wěn)定可持續(xù)發(fā)展有著一定的促進(jìn)效果,而當(dāng)非均衡性過大時,則會不利于地區(qū)間物流產(chǎn)業(yè)的協(xié)調(diào)穩(wěn)定。本文著眼于海西區(qū)域物流的差異水平情況及其驅(qū)動要素分析,并對當(dāng)?shù)貐^(qū)域物流差異未來幾年的變化趨勢進(jìn)行了預(yù)測:(1)借助平均差、標(biāo)準(zhǔn)差、極差、Theil指數(shù)等非均衡測度方法對海西區(qū)域物流絕對與相對差異作了定量測度。結(jié)果表明:絕對差異指標(biāo)均表現(xiàn)出擴(kuò)張的變化特征,區(qū)域物流發(fā)展越來越不均衡;在相對差異方面,總體差異呈現(xiàn)“下降—上升”的動態(tài)變化特征,區(qū)域內(nèi)差異一直是總體差異水平的主導(dǎo)因素;海西三大區(qū)域的區(qū)域物流差異大小順序為:海西東部海西西部海西中部,海西東部差異變化趨勢基本與總體差異變化趨勢一致,海西中部地區(qū)區(qū)域物流較為均衡,而海西西部地區(qū)差異波動幅度較大,擴(kuò)大態(tài)勢顯著。(2)分別從區(qū)域經(jīng)濟(jì)水平、外商投資、物流基礎(chǔ)設(shè)施、政策引導(dǎo)、勞動力投入、物流市場需求、產(chǎn)業(yè)結(jié)構(gòu)、城市化率、地理區(qū)位9個方面定性分析了區(qū)域物流發(fā)展的驅(qū)動要素;然后建立面板數(shù)據(jù)回歸模型,估計得出人均GDP、交通線路網(wǎng)絡(luò)密度、人均工業(yè)增加值、城市化率、政府引導(dǎo)力對區(qū)域物流發(fā)展有著正向影響,其中人均工業(yè)增加值對區(qū)域物流發(fā)展水平的正向影響程度最大,而物流固定資產(chǎn)投資、第二產(chǎn)業(yè)占比、物流從業(yè)人數(shù)以及人均社會消費品零售總額則對區(qū)域物流發(fā)展水平有著負(fù)向影響。(3)利用灰色預(yù)測模型預(yù)測未來幾年海西區(qū)域物流總體差異和海西東部區(qū)域物流差異將出現(xiàn)趨緩上升的變化趨勢,海西西部地區(qū)區(qū)域物流差異將擴(kuò)大趨勢明顯,并處于倒“U”曲線的加速上升階段。同時,結(jié)合海西具體社會經(jīng)濟(jì)情況,針對性地提出了實現(xiàn)區(qū)域物流可持續(xù)發(fā)展的對策建議。
[Abstract]:As one of the most important regional economic complexes along the southeast coast of China, the Economic Zone of the West Bank of the Straits (Hercynian) is strongly supported and guided by the national macro policies. It has already been an important gateway for the country to connect with Taiwan and the maritime Silk Road in 21th century, and the level of regional logistics development has also improved significantly. However, due to the existence of resource endowments, industrial bases, and regional transportation among the various regions within Hercynian, Due to the influence of policy environment and other factors, the development of logistics industry in different regions inevitably produces regional disequilibrium. The moderate disequilibrium space can promote the stable and sustainable development of regional logistics to a certain extent, but when the disequilibrium is too large, This paper focuses on the analysis of the difference level of Hercynian regional logistics and its driving factors, and forecasts the variation trend of local regional logistics difference in the next few years. The non-equilibrium measurement methods such as standard deviation, range difference and Theil index are used to measure quantitatively the absolute and relative differences of Hercynian regional logistics. The results show that the absolute difference indexes all show the characteristics of expansion, and the development of regional logistics is becoming more and more unbalanced. In terms of relative differences, the overall differences show the dynamic characteristics of "descending and rising", and intraregional differences have always been the dominant factor in the level of overall differences; The order of the regional logistics differences among the three major regions of Hercynian is as follows: the eastern Hercynian, the western Hercynian, the central Hercynian, the eastern Hercynian, and the regional logistics in the central Hercynian are more balanced. However, in the western Hercynian region, the regional economic level, foreign investment, logistics infrastructure, policy guidance, labor input, logistics market demand, industrial structure, and urbanization rate are respectively from the regional economic level, foreign investment, logistics infrastructure, policy guidance, industrial structure, and urbanization rate. The driving factors of regional logistics development are qualitatively analyzed in 9 aspects of geographical location, and then the panel data regression model is established to estimate the per capita GDP, the density of traffic line network, the per capita added value of industry, the rate of urbanization. Government guidance has a positive impact on the development of regional logistics, in which the per capita industrial added value has the greatest positive impact on the level of regional logistics development, while the investment in fixed assets of logistics accounts for the second industry. The number of logistics practitioners and the per capita retail sales of consumer goods have a negative impact on the level of regional logistics development.) the grey forecasting model is used to predict the overall difference of regional logistics in the next few years and the regional logistics difference in the eastern part of Hercynian. There is going to be a gradual upward trend, The regional logistics difference in the western area of Hercynian will expand obviously and be in the accelerating rising stage of inverted "U" curve. At the same time, combined with the specific social and economic situation of Hercynian, the countermeasures and suggestions to realize the sustainable development of regional logistics are put forward.
【學(xué)位授予單位】：華僑大學(xué)
【學(xué)位級別】：碩士
【學(xué)位授予年份】：2017
【分類號】：F259.27

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