發(fā)布時間：2018-01-14 15:42

  本文關(guān)鍵詞：新常態(tài)下地方經(jīng)濟增長質(zhì)量監(jiān)測預(yù)警的理論與方法　出處：《統(tǒng)計與信息論壇》2017年05期 　論文類型：期刊論文

  更多相關(guān)文章： 地方經(jīng)濟增長質(zhì)量 監(jiān)測預(yù)警系統(tǒng) 景氣指數(shù)分析

【摘要】：構(gòu)建新常態(tài)下地方經(jīng)濟增長質(zhì)量監(jiān)測預(yù)警系統(tǒng),在評價當(dāng)前經(jīng)濟增長質(zhì)量的運行狀態(tài)、準(zhǔn)確預(yù)測未來經(jīng)濟發(fā)展變化趨勢的基礎(chǔ)上,更側(cè)重于對中國地方經(jīng)濟增長質(zhì)量進行監(jiān)測和預(yù)警,以及時把控未來經(jīng)濟的變動方向,對地方經(jīng)濟增長質(zhì)量的提高起到良性指示作用。本文首先給予宏觀經(jīng)濟預(yù)警系統(tǒng)新的視角,基于經(jīng)濟增長的質(zhì)量和效益多維度進行監(jiān)測預(yù)警,區(qū)別于傳統(tǒng)的經(jīng)濟增長速度和數(shù)量。其次,明確了經(jīng)濟增長質(zhì)量監(jiān)測預(yù)警的價值判斷和內(nèi)在機理,對經(jīng)濟增長質(zhì)量監(jiān)測預(yù)警系統(tǒng)的基本框架做出相應(yīng)的界定。最后,從經(jīng)濟增長質(zhì)量的動態(tài)監(jiān)測、趨勢預(yù)測、識別預(yù)警以及政策選擇四大模塊構(gòu)建新常態(tài)下地方經(jīng)濟增長質(zhì)量的監(jiān)測預(yù)警系統(tǒng),提供各模塊的方法選擇,并以陜西省為例進行演示分析和指數(shù)模擬。
[Abstract]:Build the local economic growth quality monitoring and warning system under the new normal, on the basis of evaluating the current economic growth quality and accurately predicting the future economic development and change trend. More emphasis on the quality of local economic growth in China to monitor and early warning, in order to control the future direction of economic change. This paper first gives a new perspective of macroeconomic early warning system, based on the quality and efficiency of economic growth multi-dimensional monitoring and early warning. It is different from the traditional economic growth speed and quantity. Secondly, it clarifies the value judgment and internal mechanism of economic growth quality monitoring and warning. The basic framework of economic growth quality monitoring and early warning system is defined. Finally, from the dynamic monitoring of economic growth quality, trend prediction. Four modules of early warning and policy selection are used to construct the monitoring and warning system for the quality of local economic growth under the new normal condition, and to provide the method choice for each module, and take Shaanxi Province as an example for demonstration analysis and index simulation.
【作者單位】： 西北大學(xué)經(jīng)濟管理學(xué)院;
【基金】：國家社科基金重大項目《新常態(tài)下地方經(jīng)濟增長質(zhì)量和效益的監(jiān)測預(yù)警系統(tǒng)和政策支撐體系構(gòu)建研究》(15ZDA012) 教育部哲學(xué)社會科學(xué)發(fā)展報告項目《中國經(jīng)濟增長質(zhì)量報告》(13JBGP014) 陜西高校人文社會科學(xué)青年英才支持計劃項目(HSSTP201401)
【分類號】：F127;F224
【正文快照】： 一、引言地方經(jīng)濟發(fā)展在國民經(jīng)濟發(fā)展中具有重要的地位,中央政府報告也多次強調(diào)要致力于地方經(jīng)濟增長的質(zhì)量與效益提高。然而,在新常態(tài)的背景下,經(jīng)濟增速放緩,結(jié)構(gòu)性矛盾突出,產(chǎn)能過剩嚴(yán)重等問題阻礙著地方經(jīng)濟的合理轉(zhuǎn)型,而地方政府作為中國市場經(jīng)濟發(fā)展的一個特殊的經(jīng)濟主體

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1 ;經(jīng)濟增長不自動導(dǎo)致最大化就業(yè)[J];政工研究動態(tài);2003年20期

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