本文關(guān)鍵詞：新常態(tài)下地方經(jīng)濟(jì)增長(zhǎng)質(zhì)量監(jiān)測(cè)預(yù)警的理論與方法　出處：《統(tǒng)計(jì)與信息論壇》2017年05期 　論文類型：期刊論文

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【摘要】：構(gòu)建新常態(tài)下地方經(jīng)濟(jì)增長(zhǎng)質(zhì)量監(jiān)測(cè)預(yù)警系統(tǒng),在評(píng)價(jià)當(dāng)前經(jīng)濟(jì)增長(zhǎng)質(zhì)量的運(yùn)行狀態(tài)、準(zhǔn)確預(yù)測(cè)未來經(jīng)濟(jì)發(fā)展變化趨勢(shì)的基礎(chǔ)上,更側(cè)重于對(duì)中國(guó)地方經(jīng)濟(jì)增長(zhǎng)質(zhì)量進(jìn)行監(jiān)測(cè)和預(yù)警,以及時(shí)把控未來經(jīng)濟(jì)的變動(dòng)方向,對(duì)地方經(jīng)濟(jì)增長(zhǎng)質(zhì)量的提高起到良性指示作用。本文首先給予宏觀經(jīng)濟(jì)預(yù)警系統(tǒng)新的視角,基于經(jīng)濟(jì)增長(zhǎng)的質(zhì)量和效益多維度進(jìn)行監(jiān)測(cè)預(yù)警,區(qū)別于傳統(tǒng)的經(jīng)濟(jì)增長(zhǎng)速度和數(shù)量。其次,明確了經(jīng)濟(jì)增長(zhǎng)質(zhì)量監(jiān)測(cè)預(yù)警的價(jià)值判斷和內(nèi)在機(jī)理,對(duì)經(jīng)濟(jì)增長(zhǎng)質(zhì)量監(jiān)測(cè)預(yù)警系統(tǒng)的基本框架做出相應(yīng)的界定。最后,從經(jīng)濟(jì)增長(zhǎng)質(zhì)量的動(dòng)態(tài)監(jiān)測(cè)、趨勢(shì)預(yù)測(cè)、識(shí)別預(yù)警以及政策選擇四大模塊構(gòu)建新常態(tài)下地方經(jīng)濟(jì)增長(zhǎng)質(zhì)量的監(jiān)測(cè)預(yù)警系統(tǒng),提供各模塊的方法選擇,并以陜西省為例進(jìn)行演示分析和指數(shù)模擬。
[Abstract]:Build the local economic growth quality monitoring and warning system under the new normal, on the basis of evaluating the current economic growth quality and accurately predicting the future economic development and change trend. More emphasis on the quality of local economic growth in China to monitor and early warning, in order to control the future direction of economic change. This paper first gives a new perspective of macroeconomic early warning system, based on the quality and efficiency of economic growth multi-dimensional monitoring and early warning. It is different from the traditional economic growth speed and quantity. Secondly, it clarifies the value judgment and internal mechanism of economic growth quality monitoring and warning. The basic framework of economic growth quality monitoring and early warning system is defined. Finally, from the dynamic monitoring of economic growth quality, trend prediction. Four modules of early warning and policy selection are used to construct the monitoring and warning system for the quality of local economic growth under the new normal condition, and to provide the method choice for each module, and take Shaanxi Province as an example for demonstration analysis and index simulation.
【作者單位】： 西北大學(xué)經(jīng)濟(jì)管理學(xué)院;
【基金】：國(guó)家社科基金重大項(xiàng)目《新常態(tài)下地方經(jīng)濟(jì)增長(zhǎng)質(zhì)量和效益的監(jiān)測(cè)預(yù)警系統(tǒng)和政策支撐體系構(gòu)建研究》(15ZDA012) 教育部哲學(xué)社會(huì)科學(xué)發(fā)展報(bào)告項(xiàng)目《中國(guó)經(jīng)濟(jì)增長(zhǎng)質(zhì)量報(bào)告》(13JBGP014) 陜西高校人文社會(huì)科學(xué)青年英才支持計(jì)劃項(xiàng)目(HSSTP201401)
【分類號(hào)】：F127;F224
【正文快照】： 一、引言地方經(jīng)濟(jì)發(fā)展在國(guó)民經(jīng)濟(jì)發(fā)展中具有重要的地位,中央政府報(bào)告也多次強(qiáng)調(diào)要致力于地方經(jīng)濟(jì)增長(zhǎng)的質(zhì)量與效益提高。然而,在新常態(tài)的背景下,經(jīng)濟(jì)增速放緩,結(jié)構(gòu)性矛盾突出,產(chǎn)能過剩嚴(yán)重等問題阻礙著地方經(jīng)濟(jì)的合理轉(zhuǎn)型,而地方政府作為中國(guó)市場(chǎng)經(jīng)濟(jì)發(fā)展的一個(gè)特殊的經(jīng)濟(jì)主體

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