本文關(guān)鍵詞：我國(guó)房地產(chǎn)市場(chǎng)波動(dòng)與政策調(diào)控效應(yīng)的研究　出處：《浙江工商大學(xué)》2017年碩士論文　論文類型：學(xué)位論文

  更多相關(guān)文章： 房地產(chǎn)市場(chǎng) 貨幣政策 財(cái)政政策 VECM模型

【摘要】：我國(guó)房地產(chǎn)市場(chǎng)向來(lái)有"政策市"之稱。從2015年開始,去庫(kù)存成為我國(guó)房地產(chǎn)市場(chǎng)政策調(diào)控的方向。經(jīng)過(guò)近一年時(shí)間的去庫(kù)存努力,房地產(chǎn)市場(chǎng)在一、二線城市呈現(xiàn)出良好的政策調(diào)控效果。國(guó)家統(tǒng)計(jì)局?jǐn)?shù)據(jù)顯示,2016年上半年,住宅銷售增速達(dá)到30%,且70個(gè)大中城市庫(kù)存總量環(huán)比減少0.3%,實(shí)現(xiàn)連續(xù)10個(gè)月同比下降。然而,受供需關(guān)系調(diào)整的影響,目前一、二線城市房地產(chǎn)市場(chǎng)迎來(lái)了新一輪爆發(fā),房?jī)r(jià)和地價(jià)均大幅上漲,這增加了房地產(chǎn)住房市場(chǎng)上的價(jià)格泡沫及泡沫破滅風(fēng)險(xiǎn)。新頒布的貨幣、財(cái)政等調(diào)控政策將對(duì)現(xiàn)有房地產(chǎn)市場(chǎng),尤其是對(duì)房?jī)r(jià)造成怎樣的影響,再次成為我國(guó)房地產(chǎn)調(diào)控政策有效性研究的熱點(diǎn)問(wèn)題。在房地產(chǎn)市場(chǎng)中,調(diào)控政策呈現(xiàn)多樣化的態(tài)勢(shì),考察多項(xiàng)政策的聯(lián)合調(diào)控效應(yīng),尤其是從多項(xiàng)政策中甄選出較優(yōu)的調(diào)控政策組合,不僅有利于我國(guó)政府對(duì)房地產(chǎn)市場(chǎng)的把控,更有利于房地產(chǎn)市場(chǎng)自身的健康發(fā)展。本文通過(guò)構(gòu)建包括房地產(chǎn)交易價(jià)格及交易量、數(shù)量型及價(jià)格型貨幣政策、財(cái)政政策及經(jīng)濟(jì)增長(zhǎng)水平的多個(gè)VAR和VECM模型,將我國(guó)房地產(chǎn)市場(chǎng)波動(dòng)和政策調(diào)控內(nèi)生化,考察不同調(diào)控政策在房地產(chǎn)市場(chǎng)上的有效性,并進(jìn)行不同調(diào)控政策的比較。在經(jīng)濟(jì)增長(zhǎng)新常態(tài)下,這一研究對(duì)房地產(chǎn)市場(chǎng)調(diào)控政策的選擇具有一定借鑒意義。經(jīng)過(guò)實(shí)證分析,本文得到以下結(jié)論:第一,貨幣供應(yīng)量-利率政策的調(diào)控效應(yīng)研究表明,無(wú)論是短期還是長(zhǎng)期,房?jī)r(jià)均受到數(shù)量型和價(jià)格型貨幣政策的顯著影響;在對(duì)數(shù)量型和價(jià)格型貨幣政策的單獨(dú)考察中,房?jī)r(jià)波動(dòng)在短期內(nèi)受經(jīng)濟(jì)政策不確定性的影響并不顯著。寬松貨幣政策沖擊在發(fā)生約一個(gè)季度后,對(duì)房?jī)r(jià)上漲的推動(dòng)作用將保持穩(wěn)定,并且合適的利率政策可以實(shí)現(xiàn)短期房地產(chǎn)市場(chǎng)交易價(jià)格的有效調(diào)控。第二,如果單獨(dú)考察財(cái)政政策的調(diào)控效應(yīng),房?jī)r(jià)漲幅受財(cái)政政策的顯著影響,房產(chǎn)稅政策沖擊能夠在短期內(nèi)抑制房?jī)r(jià)漲幅的波動(dòng)。第三,貨幣—財(cái)政聯(lián)合政策調(diào)控的研究結(jié)果表明,寬松的貨幣政策會(huì)對(duì)房?jī)r(jià)漲幅的波動(dòng)起到推波助瀾作用;財(cái)政政策能夠起到平抑房?jī)r(jià)的作用;經(jīng)濟(jì)增長(zhǎng)在短期內(nèi)對(duì)房?jī)r(jià)上漲的影響并不顯著,然而從長(zhǎng)期來(lái)看,受房產(chǎn)投機(jī)需求的影響,經(jīng)濟(jì)增長(zhǎng)趨緩則會(huì)導(dǎo)致房?jī)r(jià)上漲。第四,在經(jīng)濟(jì)增長(zhǎng)趨緩背景下,對(duì)于調(diào)控政策的選擇,綜合考慮政策調(diào)控效果、政策時(shí)滯、房?jī)r(jià)走勢(shì)及漲幅波動(dòng)程度,財(cái)政政策調(diào)控在一定程度上優(yōu)于貨幣政策調(diào)控。在最優(yōu)貨幣-財(cái)政聯(lián)合政策的選擇中,價(jià)格型貨幣政策與財(cái)政政策可能是較為合適的政策組合。
[Abstract]:China's real estate market has always been the policy of the city, "said. From the beginning of 2015, to become the stock policy of China's real estate market regulation direction. After nearly a year of efforts to inventory, the real estate market in a second tier city, showing a good policy effect. The national Bureau of statistics data show that the first half of 2016, residential sales growth rate reached 30%, and 70 large and medium-sized city inventory declined 0.3%, 10 consecutive months of year-on-year decline. However, affected by the relationship between supply and demand, adjustment of the current one, second tier city real estate market ushered in a new round of the outbreak, the land and housing prices rose sharply, the increase in price the real estate bubble and the bubble burst on the housing market risk. The new currency, the financial control policies of the existing real estate market, especially the impact on prices, once again become China's real estate regulation policy effectiveness The research hot topic. In the real estate market regulation policy, the trend of diversified, combined with a number of policy effects on, especially the selection of optimum control policies from a number of policies, not only conducive to the Chinese government on the real estate market to control, more conducive to the healthy development of the real estate market. This paper constructs including real estate transaction price and transaction volume, quantity and price based monetary policy, a number of VAR and VECM model of fiscal policy and the level of economic growth, China's real estate market fluctuations and policy regulation of endogenous, investigates the effectiveness of different control policies in the real estate market, and comparison of different control policies. In the new normal economic growth, has certain reference significance for the selection of regulation on the real estate market policy. Through empirical analysis, this paper obtained the following conclusions: first, the goods Study on the effects of money supply and interest rate policy that, whether short or long term, prices were significantly affected by the quantity and price based monetary policy; in a separate investigation of quantity and price based monetary policy, price fluctuations in the short-term impact of the economic policy uncertainty is not significant. The loose monetary policy the impact occurred about a quarter, housing prices will remain stable in the role, and the appropriate interest rate policy can effectively control the short-term real estate market transaction price. Second, if only study the regulatory effects of fiscal policy, prices rose significantly by the impact of fiscal policy, the real estate tax policy impact to curb rising prices in the short term fluctuations. Third, research on monetary policy, fiscal union. The results show that the loose monetary policy on housing prices rose to push wave wave The effect; fiscal policy can play a role in stabilizing prices; economic growth in the short term impact on housing prices is not significant, but in the long term, affected by the real estate speculation demand, slowing economic growth will lead to higher prices. In fourth, economic growth slowed in the background, policy choice with considering the effect of policies, policies, prices and increase the volatility of financial policy, to a certain extent better than monetary policy. In the fiscal policy with the optimal monetary choice, price based monetary policy and fiscal policy may be more appropriate policy mix.

【學(xué)位授予單位】：浙江工商大學(xué)
【學(xué)位級(jí)別】：碩士
【學(xué)位授予年份】：2017
【分類號(hào)】：F299.23

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