本文關鍵詞：省際低碳經濟增長路徑優(yōu)化及碳排放脫鉤預測，由筆耕文化傳播整理發(fā)布。

省際低碳經濟增長路徑優(yōu)化及碳排放脫鉤預測

The path optimization of provincial lower - carbon economic growth and the decoupling prediction of carbon emissions in each province of China

[1] [2] [3]

Gong Weifeng, Zhou Dequn, Wang Chuanhu（ 1. College of Economy and Management, Nanjing University of Aeronautics and Astronautics, Nanjing 211106, China; 2. Research Centre fo

[1].南京航空航天大學經濟與管理學院,江蘇南京211106; [2]南京航空航天大學能源軟科學研究中心,江蘇南京211106; [3]曲阜師范大學經濟學院,山東日照276826; [4]臨沂大學商學院,山東臨沂276000

文章摘要：本文從全局最優(yōu)角度建立了省區(qū)低碳經濟增長優(yōu)化模型，找到了在全國能耗強度和碳排放強度約束下各省經濟增長最優(yōu)路徑，預測了各省碳排放、能源消耗與經濟增長之間的脫鉤狀態(tài)。結果表明，若2010—2015年各省能耗強度與碳排放強度均能夠實現(xiàn)政府制定的降低目標，將會阻礙山西、寧夏、內蒙古和貴州的經濟增長，但能促進其他省區(qū)的經濟增長；提高北京、河北、上海、浙江和廣東的經濟增長有利于帶動山西、內蒙古和貴州的經濟發(fā)展，，但會提高部分省區(qū)的能源結構碳強度；全國能耗強度和碳排放強度的最優(yōu)降幅分別為18．19％和19．56％。除海南或青海的碳排放、能源消耗與經濟增長之間均處于增長連接狀態(tài)外，其他省區(qū)均處于弱脫鉤狀態(tài)，說明在經濟增長最優(yōu)路徑上各省節(jié)能減排效果明顯；各省碳排放增速均小于能源消耗增速。說明各省能源結構將逐漸優(yōu)化。

Abstr：An optimal model of provincial lower - carbon economic growth is established based on the global optimal angle. Un-der the constraint of energy intensity and carbon emissions intensity of China, the optimal path for provincial lower - carbon eco-nomic growth is found. The deeoupling relationship between carbon emissions and economic growth of each province is predicted, and the decoupling relationship between energy consumption and economic growth of each province is also predicted. If each pro-vineial government is able to achieve the target of energy intensity and carbon dioxide emissions intensity during the period of 2010- 2015, the economic growth rate of Shanxi, Ningxia, Inner Mongolia, and Guizhou would be impeded, however the eco- nomic growth rate of other provinces in China would be promoted. Increasing economic growth rate of Beijing, Hebei, Shanghai, Zhejiang, and Guangdong is benefit to drive economic development of Shanxi, Inner Mongolia, and Guizhou. But the energy - carbon intensity of several provinces would be increased. From 2010 to 2015, the energy intensity and carbon emissions intensity of the whole nation would be reduced about 18.19% and 19.56%, respectively. Excerpt the carbon emissions, energy consump- tion, and economic growth for the provinces of Hainan and Qinghai all in the status of growth connection, rest of the provinces are all in the condition of weak decoupling. The results show that the effect of energy conservation and emission reduction is remarka-ble on the optimal economic growth path. The growth rate of carbon emissions is slower than the growth rate of energy consump- tion in each province. It means that energy resource structure of each province is gradually o

文章關鍵詞：

Keyword：:optimal model energy intensity carbon emission intensity economic growth decoupling analysis

課題項目：教育部博士點基金項目“中國區(qū)域碳減排責任劃分研究-基于技術效率與空間差異視角”（編號：20123218110028;起止日期：2013-2015）;國家自然科學基金項目“石油價格危機預警分級機制及其智能應急響應策略研究”（編號：71203081;起止13期：2013-2015）;國家自然科學基金青年項目“產業(yè)轉移的碳溢出效應測度研究一以皖江城市帶承接產業(yè)轉移示范區(qū)為例”（編號：71203100;起止日期：2013-2015）;山東省自然科學基金項目“山東省生物質能源資源潛力與地理分布”（編號：ZR2010DM017,起止日期：2010-2013）;山東省自然科學基金面上項目“三維企業(yè)邊界模型與藍色經濟區(qū)龍頭企業(yè)升級的產業(yè)定位研究”（編號：ZR2010GM012;起止日期：2010-2013）

  本文關鍵詞：省際低碳經濟增長路徑優(yōu)化及碳排放脫鉤預測，由筆耕文化傳播整理發(fā)布。