在城市給水管網(wǎng)系統(tǒng)中,管道是一個非常重要的組成部分。泄漏和爆管是顯示管網(wǎng)狀態(tài)的非常有用的指示參數(shù)。爆管和泄漏可能會降低管道的供水能力,并增加給水管網(wǎng)系統(tǒng)受污染的機會。供水公用事業(yè)在維護上消耗了大量的預算。因此,對這些爆管進行評價是非常重要的。為了保持和改善供水系統(tǒng)的性能,對系統(tǒng)的現(xiàn)狀和未來狀況進行評估,以便作出更換、修復和維修的決策是非常必要的。爆管狀況的評估是一項復雜的工作,部分原因是缺乏完整的維修記錄和現(xiàn)場確定爆管及其與惡化過程的關系。在本文的評估中,考慮了兩個因素,即失效概率（爆管的可能性）和失效后果。根據(jù)不同的爆管修復數(shù)據(jù),結合當?shù)氐奶攸c,建立了爆管風險失效概率模型。所采用的方法為logistic回歸分析,該模型的目的是尋找未來管道破裂的可能性,確定對爆管可能性影響最大的參數(shù)。數(shù)據(jù)包括管徑、管材、鋪設深度、路面寬度和管齡。用于分析的數(shù)據(jù)集來自中國的一個主要城市,這些數(shù)據(jù)包括近40年來檢測到的近127,764次突發(fā)事件中包含的約148,676段管段數(shù)據(jù)。失效后果（COF）模型采用基于專家意見的加權和多準則決策方法,對突發(fā)管道失效的經(jīng)濟、社會和環(huán)境后果進行評估。該模型將包括經(jīng)濟影響... 

【文章頁數(shù)】：94 頁

【學位級別】：碩士

【文章目錄】：
摘要
Abstract
Chapter1 Introduction
    1.1 Background,Scope and Research objective of the Work
        1.1.1 Background
        1.1.2 Causes and Effect of Pipe failures
        1.1.3 Physical modeling of pipe bursts
        1.1.4 Difference between pipe bursts and leaks
        1.1.5 Scope of the study
        1.1.6 Research objective
    1.2 Selection of site
        1.2.1 Site description
    1.3 Overview of Manuscript
Chapter2 Consideration of the Documents
    2.1 Introduction
    2.2 Water pipe condition and burst prediction
    2.3 Previous statistical modelling approach
    2.4 Analytical Statistical Models for Pipe Bursts Failures
        2.4.1 Aggregate type models
        2.4.2 Multiple regression type models
    2.5 Previous Analytic Hierarchy Models
    2.6 Summary
Chapter3 Methodology
    3.1 Introduction
    3.2 Optimization of failure probability weight model
        3.2.1 Model roughing
        3.2.2 Model optimization
        3.2.3 Distribution Assumption
        3.2.4 Variable Definitions
    3.3 Analytic hierarchy process(AHP)
        3.3.1 The construction of Judgement Matrix
        3.3.2 Weight Calculation
        3.3.3 Conformity Test
        3.3.4 Hierarchical sorting and calculating the total weight
    3.4 Summary
Chapter4 Analysis and Findings
    4.1 Results of assessment model development of Prob PB
        4.1.1 Effect of Diameter on Pipe burst
        4.1.2 Effect of Material on Pipe burst
        4.1.3 Effect of Age on Pipe burst
    4.2 Evaluation of bursts condition by AHP
    4.3 Pairwise comparison matrices and weight coefficients
    4.4 Consistency analysis
    4.5 Importance weights of criteria and factors in the AHP model
    4.6 Calculation of evaluation scores and discussion
    4.7 The pie chart representation of analysis results
        4.7.1 Analysis of existing data of pipe burst in 2015
        4.7.2 Analysis of existing data of pipe burst in 2016
        4.7.3 Analysis of existing data of pipe burst in 2017
    4.8 Summary
Conclusion
References
Acknowledgements
Resume



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