發(fā)布時間：2019-06-06 12:57

【摘要】：目前,我國防災(zāi)避難場所規(guī)劃還主要依賴規(guī)劃者的專業(yè)知識與經(jīng)驗確定避難場所的數(shù)量和選址布局。而且,已經(jīng)建設(shè)完成的避難場所基本上達(dá)不到最新頒布的《防災(zāi)避難場所設(shè)計規(guī)范》(GB51143-2015)等國家強制性標(biāo)準(zhǔn)的要求。這些已經(jīng)規(guī)劃、建設(shè)的避難場所在重大災(zāi)害發(fā)生時,可能破壞或失去部分應(yīng)急功能。如何在災(zāi)害發(fā)生后,評價已經(jīng)規(guī)劃建設(shè)完成的避難場所是否具備設(shè)定的應(yīng)急功能,以及在災(zāi)后如何對可利用的避難場所責(zé)任區(qū)進行重新劃分或?qū)Ρ茈y場所進行增補,是避難場所規(guī)劃、建設(shè)和管理中亟待解決的問題。依據(jù)2016年實施的《防災(zāi)避難場所設(shè)計規(guī)范》對應(yīng)急設(shè)施的分類和配置等要求,分析避難場所災(zāi)后應(yīng)急能力影響因素,提出固定避難場所災(zāi)后應(yīng)急能力評價指標(biāo),包括:應(yīng)急供電、應(yīng)急供水、應(yīng)急交通、應(yīng)急消防、應(yīng)急住宿、應(yīng)急物資和醫(yī)療衛(wèi)生救護�？紤]重大災(zāi)害發(fā)生后普遍存在通信不暢、交通受阻和管理混亂,而且開放避難場所的時間緊迫,災(zāi)后所能收集到的避難場所的評價數(shù)據(jù)很可能存在不完整、不準(zhǔn)確甚至不一致等問題。引入粗糙集理論,提出基于粗糙集的固定避難場所災(zāi)后應(yīng)急能力評估方法,通過數(shù)值算例,驗證了該方法的適用性。基于最大覆蓋模型和P-中值模型,以覆蓋最多避難人數(shù)和總避難疏散距離最短為目標(biāo),考慮了災(zāi)后疏散距離、場所容量和場所責(zé)任區(qū)不重疊等約束條件,建立了避難場所災(zāi)后責(zé)任區(qū)調(diào)整模型;基于P-中值模型和集合覆蓋模型,以補充最少的避難場所和總避難疏散距離最短為目標(biāo),考慮災(zāi)后疏散距離、場所容量和場所責(zé)任區(qū)不重疊等約束條件,給出避難場所災(zāi)后補充選址模型。引入Lingo11.0軟件,對以上兩模型求解。以某市河?xùn)|區(qū)為例,模擬災(zāi)后部分避難場所破壞使設(shè)定的應(yīng)急功能失效。運用本文模型進行責(zé)任區(qū)重新調(diào)整與避難場所的補充選址。該實例驗證了本文模型的適用性,也為避難場所災(zāi)后評估及責(zé)任區(qū)調(diào)整和補充選址提供了參考。
[Abstract]:At present, the planning of disaster prevention and refuge places in China mainly depends on the professional knowledge and experience of planners to determine the number and location layout of refuge places. Moreover, the completed asylum places basically can not meet the requirements of the newly promulgated Code for the Design of disaster Prevention and asylum places (GB51143-2015) and other national mandatory standards. These planned and built refuge places may destroy or lose some emergency functions in the event of major disasters. How to evaluate whether the planned and constructed refuge places have the established emergency function after the disaster, and how to redivide or supplement the areas of responsibility of the available refuge places after the disaster, It is an urgent problem to be solved in the planning, construction and management of refuge places. According to the classification and allocation of emergency facilities in the Code for Design of disaster Prevention and Rescue places implemented in 2016, this paper analyzes the influencing factors of post-disaster emergency response capacity of refuge places, and puts forward the evaluation indexes of post-disaster emergency response capacity of fixed refuge places. Including: emergency power supply, emergency water supply, emergency traffic, emergency fire fighting, emergency accommodation, emergency supplies and medical and health care. Considering that communication is widespread, traffic is blocked and management is chaotic after major disasters, and the time required to open refuge places is tight, and the evaluation data collected after disasters are likely to be incomplete, Problems such as inaccuracy or even inconsistency. In this paper, rough set theory is introduced to evaluate the post-disaster emergency response capacity of fixed shelter based on rough set. The applicability of the method is verified by numerical examples. Based on the maximum coverage model and P-median model, aiming at the maximum number of asylum and the shortest total evacuation distance, the constraints such as post-disaster evacuation distance, site capacity and place responsibility area do not overlap are considered. The adjustment model of responsibility area after disaster in refuge place is established. Based on the P-median model and the set coverage model, in order to supplement the least shelter and the shortest total shelter evacuation distance, the constraints such as post-disaster evacuation distance, site capacity and place responsibility area do not overlap are considered. The supplementary location model of refuge place after disaster is given. Lingo11.0 software is introduced to solve the above two models. Taking Hedong District of a city as an example, the emergency function is invalid by simulating the destruction of some refuge places after the disaster. The model is used to readjust the responsibility area and supplement the location of the place of refuge. The example verifies the applicability of the model, and also provides a reference for the post-disaster assessment of refuge places, the adjustment of responsibility area and the supplementary location.
【學(xué)位授予單位】：華北理工大學(xué)
【學(xué)位級別】：碩士
【學(xué)位授予年份】：2017
【分類號】：TU984.116

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