【摘要】：近年來城市內(nèi)澇給人們的生活、生產(chǎn)帶來不利影響,甚至威脅到城市的發(fā)展和安全。暴雨強度公式是城市雨水、防澇工程建設的重要依據(jù),因此編制與實際降雨特性相一致的暴雨強度公式是保障城市健康發(fā)展的重要前提。隨著氣候不斷改變和城鎮(zhèn)化的快速推進,城市的降雨規(guī)律已發(fā)生變化,故一些上世紀80年代編制的暴雨強度公式已不能很好的服務于當?shù)氐挠晁こ探ㄔO;加之,我國大部分中小城鎮(zhèn)沒有運用當?shù)氐慕涤曩Y料編制暴雨強度公式,實際工程中通常借鑒鄰近地區(qū)的暴雨強度公式,這使得當?shù)厮ㄔO的雨水工程的安全性與經(jīng)濟性有待商榷。勉縣沒有當?shù)氐谋┯陱姸裙?故編制反映勉縣降雨特征的暴雨強度公式是十分有必要的。本文基于勉縣1996~2015年的原始降雨資料,運用年最大值法選取樣本,建立降雨統(tǒng)計樣本;首先選用三種理論分布模型對原始降雨資料進行頻率擬合分析,獲得不同分布模型下相應的i~t~P表,然后依次運用最小二乘法、麥夸爾特法、高斯牛頓法求解暴雨強度公式中的各未知參數(shù);最后對符合規(guī)范要求的各公式的誤差及其對應理論值與實測值之間的差率進行比較,最終確定出勉縣暴雨強度公式�；诮⒌慕涤杲y(tǒng)計樣本,運用3種理論模型對實測降雨資料進行頻率擬合分析,得到的3組i~t~P表,分析結果誤差可得:擬合效果最好的是耿貝爾模型,其次是皮爾遜Ⅲ型模型,最差的是指數(shù)模型。依據(jù)3組i~t~P表,分別運用上述3種求參方法獲得9組暴雨強度公式,比較其誤差可得:在同一分布模型下,麥夸爾特法求參誤差最小,最小二乘法求參誤差最大;在同一求參方法下,擬合效果最佳的是耿貝爾分布模型,其次是指數(shù)分布模型,效果最差的是皮爾遜Ⅲ型,這與頻率調(diào)整結果有差異。因此,應對各分布模型均運用不同方法進行求參,通過最終的誤差比較來確定出擬合效果最佳的理論頻率分布模型。首先初選出5組符合規(guī)范要求的公式,其次計算各公式對應的理論值,通過理論值與降雨實測值差率的分析比較,確定出勉縣暴雨強度公式為(?)和(?)。結合勉縣城市規(guī)模,2~20年的暴雨強度公式通常應用于城鎮(zhèn)雨水工程;2~100年的公式應用于城鎮(zhèn)內(nèi)澇防治工程。最終的勉縣暴雨強度公式不適用于城鎮(zhèn)水利防洪工程。
[Abstract]:In recent years, urban waterlogging has brought adverse effects to people's life and production, and even threatened the development and safety of cities. The formula of rainstorm intensity is an important basis for the construction of urban Rain Water and waterlogging prevention engineering. Therefore, it is an important prerequisite for ensuring the healthy development of the city to compile the formula of rainstorm intensity consistent with the actual rainfall characteristics. With the continuous change of climate and the rapid development of urbanization, the urban rainfall law has changed. Therefore, some of the rainstorm intensity formulas compiled in the 1980s can no longer serve the construction of the local Rain Water project. Most small and medium-sized towns in China do not use local rainfall data to compile the formula of rainstorm intensity. In practical engineering, the formula of rainstorm intensity in neighboring areas is usually used for reference, which makes the safety and economy of Rain Water project constructed in the local area open to question. There is no local formula of rainstorm intensity in Mian county, so it is necessary to compile the formula of rainstorm intensity to reflect the characteristics of rainfall in Mian county. Based on the original rainfall data from 1996 to 2015 in Mian County, the annual maximum value method is used to select the sample and establish the rainfall statistical sample. Firstly, three kinds of theoretical distribution models are used to analyze the frequency of the original rainfall data. The corresponding i~t~P tables under different distribution models are obtained, and then the least square method, McQualte method and Gao Si Newton method are used to solve the unknown parameters in the torrential rain intensity formula. Finally, the error of each formula and the difference rate between the corresponding theoretical value and the measured value are compared, and finally the formula of rainstorm intensity in Mian county is determined. Based on the established rainfall statistical samples, three kinds of theoretical models are used to analyze the frequency fitting of the measured rainfall data. The error of the three groups of i~t~P tables can be obtained: the Geng Bell model is the best fitting result. Followed by Pearson III model, the worst is the exponential model. According to the three sets of i~t~P tables, nine groups of torrential rain intensity formulas were obtained by using the above three methods, and the errors were compared: under the same distribution model, the minimum parameter error was obtained by McQuarrit method and the maximum error was obtained by least square method; Under the same parameter calculation method, the best fitting effect is Geng Bell distribution model, followed by exponential distribution model, and the worst one is Pearson 鈪，

本文編號：2203326