大型建設(shè)工程項目施工進度風(fēng)險耦合分析及其仿真研究
發(fā)布時間：2018-08-14 11:01
【摘要】：隨著中國現(xiàn)代化進程的日益加快,我國大型建設(shè)工程項目行業(yè)也步入了持續(xù)快速發(fā)展的軌道。大型建設(shè)工程項目不僅是工程領(lǐng)域的一個重要組成部分,也是國民經(jīng)濟需要不斷提升地一個很重要的部分。然而,我國工程業(yè)的迅猛發(fā)展不僅給建筑業(yè)帶來巨大的經(jīng)濟壓力,其中出現(xiàn)的進度拖延等情況更成為亟需解決的問題。在我國工程進度拖延損失的統(tǒng)計中,由于不確定因素的發(fā)生而導(dǎo)致施工進度無法有效控制的現(xiàn)象不斷出現(xiàn)。因此,本文運用風(fēng)險管理學(xué)、數(shù)理統(tǒng)計學(xué)、工程項目管理等理論知識對大型建設(shè)工程項目施工進度風(fēng)險耦合模型及風(fēng)險耦合分析系統(tǒng)進行分析研究,旨在提高大型建設(shè)工程項目施工過程中的風(fēng)險管理水平。本文主要從以下幾個方面對大型建設(shè)工程項目施工進度風(fēng)險耦合分析及其仿真問題進行研究。首先,為研究國內(nèi)外風(fēng)險耦合問題的研究現(xiàn)狀,在查閱了大量國內(nèi)外相關(guān)文獻的基礎(chǔ)上,進行了綜述。在該基礎(chǔ)上,對風(fēng)險耦合的相關(guān)概念進行簡介,論述了大型建設(shè)工程項目施工進度風(fēng)險的內(nèi)涵,利用問卷調(diào)查法和專家法,在多家企業(yè)工程現(xiàn)場問卷調(diào)查,對象包括業(yè)主、監(jiān)理、施工方、承包商等與工程進度相關(guān)的參與方,利用權(quán)重提取出在工程進度中對建設(shè)工程項目影響較深的風(fēng)險指標因素。在提取并確定了相關(guān)的風(fēng)險指標后,利用數(shù)理知識等對本文風(fēng)險耦合研究建立了施工進度風(fēng)險耦合模型,為確保下一步構(gòu)建施工進度風(fēng)險耦合分析系統(tǒng)的正確性,在該部分對施工進度風(fēng)險耦合模型進行了有效性驗證。在上述模型驗證有效性的基礎(chǔ)上,本文構(gòu)建了風(fēng)險耦合分析系統(tǒng),其中包括對該系統(tǒng)各模塊和界面的簡單介紹,并引進某高校大型建設(shè)工程項目中的一個單位工程進行實例驗證,其結(jié)果表明該風(fēng)險耦合分析系統(tǒng)在實時動態(tài)管理施工進度風(fēng)險方面具有很高的效率和價值,是可行的。最后總結(jié)了本文的研究結(jié)論與創(chuàng)新點,并指出了其不足及需要改進的地方,為后續(xù)研究指明了方向。本文利用耦合在大型建設(shè)工程項目施工進度風(fēng)險管理領(lǐng)域的影響,運用數(shù)理統(tǒng)計學(xué)、工程項目管理及計算機仿真學(xué)等理論構(gòu)建了施工進度風(fēng)險耦合模型,利用實例揭示施工進度風(fēng)險耦合的內(nèi)在規(guī)律,在此基礎(chǔ)上,構(gòu)建施工進度風(fēng)險耦合分析系統(tǒng),探討施工進度風(fēng)險耦合度,在大型建設(shè)工程項目施工進度風(fēng)險管理方面具有創(chuàng)新性,這將有利于及時預(yù)防大型建設(shè)工程項目施工進度中風(fēng)險耦合的進一步發(fā)展演變,提升施工進度過程中的風(fēng)險管理水平,促進我國工程建設(shè)項目健康發(fā)展。
[Abstract]:With the acceleration of China's modernization process, China's large-scale construction project industry has also stepped into the track of sustained and rapid development. Large construction project is not only an important part of engineering field, but also an important part of national economy. However, the rapid development of China's engineering industry not only brings enormous economic pressure to the construction industry, but also the delay in progress becomes a problem that needs to be solved. In the statistics of project schedule delay loss in our country, the phenomenon that the construction progress can not be effectively controlled due to the occurrence of uncertain factors is constantly appearing. Therefore, this paper uses the theory knowledge of risk management, mathematical statistics, engineering project management and so on to analyze and study the risk coupling model and risk coupling analysis system of large-scale construction projects. The aim is to improve the risk management level in the construction process of large-scale construction projects. In this paper, the risk coupling analysis and simulation of construction schedule of large construction projects are studied in the following aspects. Firstly, in order to study the current situation of risk coupling at home and abroad, a review is made on the basis of consulting a large number of domestic and foreign literatures. On this basis, the concept of risk coupling is briefly introduced, and the connotation of construction schedule risk of large-scale construction project is discussed. The questionnaire survey method and expert method are used to survey the project site in many enterprises, including the owner. Supervision, construction, contractor and other related parties, using the weight to extract the risk index factors that have a deep impact on the construction project in the progress of the project. In order to ensure the correctness of the construction schedule risk coupling analysis system, the risk coupling model of construction schedule is established by using mathematical knowledge and so on after extracting and determining the relevant risk index. In this part, the effectiveness of the risk coupling model of construction schedule is verified. On the basis of the validity of the above models, a risk coupling analysis system is constructed, which includes a brief introduction of each module and interface of the system. A unit project in a large construction project of a university is introduced for verification. The results show that the risk coupling analysis system has high efficiency and value in real-time and dynamic management of construction schedule risk, and it is feasible. Finally, this paper summarizes the research conclusions and innovation points, and points out its shortcomings and needs to be improved, pointing out the direction for further research. Based on the influence of coupling in the field of risk management of construction schedule of large construction project, this paper constructs the risk coupling model of construction schedule using mathematical statistics, engineering project management and computer simulation. On the basis of revealing the inherent law of construction schedule risk coupling, a construction schedule risk coupling analysis system is constructed, and the degree of construction schedule risk coupling is discussed. It is innovative in the risk management of construction schedule of large-scale construction project, which will help to prevent the further development and evolution of risk coupling in the construction progress of large-scale construction project in time, and improve the risk management level in the construction progress process. To promote the healthy development of China's engineering construction projects.
【學(xué)位授予單位】：華北電力大學(xué)(北京)
【學(xué)位級別】：碩士
【學(xué)位授予年份】：2017
【分類號】：TU722
[Abstract]:With the acceleration of China's modernization process, China's large-scale construction project industry has also stepped into the track of sustained and rapid development. Large construction project is not only an important part of engineering field, but also an important part of national economy. However, the rapid development of China's engineering industry not only brings enormous economic pressure to the construction industry, but also the delay in progress becomes a problem that needs to be solved. In the statistics of project schedule delay loss in our country, the phenomenon that the construction progress can not be effectively controlled due to the occurrence of uncertain factors is constantly appearing. Therefore, this paper uses the theory knowledge of risk management, mathematical statistics, engineering project management and so on to analyze and study the risk coupling model and risk coupling analysis system of large-scale construction projects. The aim is to improve the risk management level in the construction process of large-scale construction projects. In this paper, the risk coupling analysis and simulation of construction schedule of large construction projects are studied in the following aspects. Firstly, in order to study the current situation of risk coupling at home and abroad, a review is made on the basis of consulting a large number of domestic and foreign literatures. On this basis, the concept of risk coupling is briefly introduced, and the connotation of construction schedule risk of large-scale construction project is discussed. The questionnaire survey method and expert method are used to survey the project site in many enterprises, including the owner. Supervision, construction, contractor and other related parties, using the weight to extract the risk index factors that have a deep impact on the construction project in the progress of the project. In order to ensure the correctness of the construction schedule risk coupling analysis system, the risk coupling model of construction schedule is established by using mathematical knowledge and so on after extracting and determining the relevant risk index. In this part, the effectiveness of the risk coupling model of construction schedule is verified. On the basis of the validity of the above models, a risk coupling analysis system is constructed, which includes a brief introduction of each module and interface of the system. A unit project in a large construction project of a university is introduced for verification. The results show that the risk coupling analysis system has high efficiency and value in real-time and dynamic management of construction schedule risk, and it is feasible. Finally, this paper summarizes the research conclusions and innovation points, and points out its shortcomings and needs to be improved, pointing out the direction for further research. Based on the influence of coupling in the field of risk management of construction schedule of large construction project, this paper constructs the risk coupling model of construction schedule using mathematical statistics, engineering project management and computer simulation. On the basis of revealing the inherent law of construction schedule risk coupling, a construction schedule risk coupling analysis system is constructed, and the degree of construction schedule risk coupling is discussed. It is innovative in the risk management of construction schedule of large-scale construction project, which will help to prevent the further development and evolution of risk coupling in the construction progress of large-scale construction project in time, and improve the risk management level in the construction progress process. To promote the healthy development of China's engineering construction projects.
【學(xué)位授予單位】：華北電力大學(xué)(北京)
【學(xué)位級別】：碩士
【學(xué)位授予年份】：2017
【分類號】：TU722
【參考文獻】
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