本文選題：均質邊坡　切入點：失效概率　出處：《巖土力學》2017年05期

【摘要】：針對邊坡失效概率計算中功能函數難以確定、多重積分計算不便等問題,提出了Copula理論下基于g-line失效域的邊坡可靠性分析方法。首先簡要介紹了Copula理論,給出了基于Copula理論的邊坡可靠性分析步驟,進而探討了一般均質邊坡的g-line曲線擬合形狀及表征邊坡失效域的抗剪強度參數范圍,結果表明,二次多項式能很好擬合g-line曲線,內摩擦角和黏聚力可表征g-line曲線下的邊坡失效域。以一均質邊坡為例,通過在g-line失效域內積分,得出了3種Copula函數下邊坡的失效概率,均與FORM及MCS法得出的結果比較接近,從而驗證了Copula理論下基于g-line失效域的邊坡可靠性分析方法的合理性。最后,討論了不同Copula函數下失效概率計算結果的差異性隨安全系數變化的特點,認為在低失效概率(高安全系數)時,可靠性分析結果對Copula函數類型比較敏感,應重視不同Copula函數類型引起的計算結果差異性及最優(yōu)化問題的研究。
[Abstract]:In view of the difficulty of determining the function function in the calculation of slope failure probability and the inconvenient calculation of multiple integrals, a slope reliability analysis method based on g-line failure region based on Copula theory is proposed. Firstly, the Copula theory is briefly introduced. The procedure of slope reliability analysis based on Copula theory is given, and then the fitting shape of g-line curve of general homogeneous slope and the range of shear strength parameters representing the failure zone of slope are discussed. The results show that the quadratic polynomial can fit the g-line curve well. The internal friction angle and cohesive force can represent the slope failure region under the g-line curve. Taking a homogeneous slope as an example, by integrating in the g-line failure domain, the failure probability of the slope under three kinds of Copula functions is obtained, which is close to the results obtained by FORM and MCS method. The rationality of slope reliability analysis method based on g-line failure region based on Copula theory is verified. Finally, the difference of failure probability calculation results under different Copula functions with the variation of safety factor is discussed. It is considered that when the failure probability is low (high safety factor), the reliability analysis results are sensitive to the types of Copula functions, and the difference of calculation results caused by different Copula function types and the study of optimization problems should be emphasized.
【作者單位】： 河海大學巖土力學與堤壩工程教育部重點實驗室;三峽大學三峽庫區(qū)地質災害教育部重點實驗室;武漢大學水利水電學院;
【基金】：水利部公益性行業(yè)科研專項經費項目(No.201401029) 中央高�；究蒲袠I(yè)務費專項資金資助(No.2014B33714)~~
【分類號】：TU43

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