本文關鍵詞：建筑工程質量風險預測與控制方法研究　出處：《東南大學》2017年碩士論文　論文類型：學位論文

  更多相關文章： 建筑工程質量風險 工程結構分解 風險評估 風險預測 范例推理 風險應對

【摘要】：建筑工程質量直接影響建筑工程自身全壽命期,關系到工程的適用性和社會效益,最終也會關系到人民財產與生命安全。經過大量的文獻閱讀,發(fā)現(xiàn)建筑工程風險管理的研究少有以工程對象系統(tǒng)的研究作為出發(fā)點進行動態(tài)評估和實時監(jiān)控工程質量風險,且鮮有計算機技術的深入運用,因此確定"建筑工程質量風險預測和控制方法"為題。本文主要以理論分析為主,并結合863個建筑工程樣本案例的實地調研、歷史工程數(shù)據(jù)以及東南大學項目管理研究所多年重大科研項目部分成果,在以下幾個方面進行研究:(1)本文研究的基礎理論與方法,包括明確建筑工程質量風險定義、基于Domino理論和Reason理論與的建筑工程風險形成機理、工程系統(tǒng)結構分解方法(EBS)、貝葉斯網(wǎng)絡和范例推理等方法,并構建建筑工程質量風險預測和控制體系。(2)在建筑工程分解結構基礎上,結合案例工程調研結果,建立了基于EBS和建筑工程質量問題映射關系,有利于直接識別和獲取建筑工程質量風險因素,并進行風險因素含義的解釋和建筑工程質量風險結構分解。(3)建筑工程質量風險科學評估需要歷史工程數(shù)據(jù)的仿真經驗值,以彌補關鍵參數(shù)被主觀賦值的數(shù)據(jù)缺失,利用灰色關聯(lián)計量方法,并以貝葉斯準則的閾值作為建筑工程質量風險是否發(fā)生的臨界點,實現(xiàn)風險動態(tài)預警。(4)根據(jù)風險識別和風險預測的研究結果,建立基于范例推理的建筑工程質量風險控制流程,包括對目標工程的數(shù)據(jù)采集、數(shù)據(jù)處理,在工程案例庫中利用相似度尋求相似案例,構建建筑工程質量風險實時監(jiān)控系統(tǒng),滿足目標工程現(xiàn)場與監(jiān)控中心的數(shù)據(jù)實時交互需要,結合相似案例的經驗數(shù)據(jù),使用風險預測方法進行動態(tài)評估與監(jiān)控,做到精準的風險事前控制;并詳細論述當工程質量風險監(jiān)控系統(tǒng)發(fā)出預警警報的時候,處于高危狀態(tài)的風險由誰分擔以及合理的分擔比例,督促風險關聯(lián)方主動采取針對性的風險應對措施而保障質量風險處于安全狀態(tài)。
[Abstract]:The quality of construction works directly affects the whole life period of the construction project itself, relates to the applicability and social benefit of the project, and ultimately also relates to the people's property and life safety. It is found that the research on risk management of construction engineering seldom takes the research of engineering object system as the starting point to carry out dynamic evaluation and real-time monitoring of engineering quality risk, and seldom makes use of computer technology in depth. Therefore, "risk prediction and control method of construction engineering quality" is determined. This paper mainly focuses on theoretical analysis and field investigation of 863 construction engineering sample cases. Historical engineering data and some achievements of the major scientific research projects of the Institute of Project Management, Southeast University, are studied in the following aspects: 1) the basic theories and methods of this paper. Including clear definition of construction engineering quality risk, based on Domino theory and Reason theory and construction engineering risk formation mechanism, engineering system structure decomposition method. Bayesian network and Case-based reasoning (CBR) are used to construct the risk prediction and control system of construction engineering quality. Based on the decomposed structure of construction engineering, the research results of case engineering are combined. Based on EBS and the mapping relation of construction engineering quality problem, it is helpful to identify and obtain the risk factors of construction engineering quality directly. And the interpretation of the meaning of risk factors and the structural decomposition of construction quality risk. 3) the scientific evaluation of construction engineering quality risk needs the simulation experience value of historical engineering data. In order to make up for the lack of the data that the key parameters are assigned subjectively, the grey correlation measurement method is used, and the threshold of Bayesian criterion is used as the critical point of whether the quality risk of construction engineering occurs or not. According to the research results of risk identification and risk prediction, the paper establishes the construction engineering quality risk control flow based on case-based reasoning, including the data acquisition and data processing of the target engineering. In order to meet the need of real-time data interaction between the target project site and the monitoring center, a real-time monitoring system of construction engineering quality risk is constructed by using similarity to seek similar cases in the engineering case base. Combining with the experience data of similar cases, using the risk forecasting method to carry on the dynamic evaluation and monitoring, so as to achieve accurate risk control in advance; And discusses in detail when the project quality risk monitoring system sends out the early warning alarm, the risk in the high risk condition by who shares and the reasonable sharing proportion. Urge related parties to take targeted risk measures to ensure quality risk is in a safe state.
【學位授予單位】：東南大學
【學位級別】：碩士
【學位授予年份】：2017
【分類號】：TU712.3

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