【摘要】：目前，地方債務存在舉債融資不規(guī)范、監(jiān)管不到位、行業(yè)償債能力弱、測評機制以及防范機制缺失等問題，有一定的風險隱患。本文以D市為例研究三線城市地方債務的風險水平。 首先，闡述當前D市地方債務狀況，分析其風險，，包括償還風險、債務風險影響政府威信、社會穩(wěn)定、宏觀經(jīng)濟運行乃至金融風險等，進而深入分析其形成的歷史以及現(xiàn)實原因。 接著，采用定量與定性相結合、實證與理論相結合的等研究方法，對“十二五”時期D市地方債務規(guī)模進行測算，包括“十一五”時期的存量債務的影響和“十二五”新增債務。前者利用EXCEL，PMT函數(shù)，計算債務本息和獲得，后者由地方政府投資資金需求與地方政府投資能力的差額獲得。通過情景假定對D市地方債務壓力測試：不同經(jīng)濟增長視角下的債務風險、不同中央與地方支出責任分擔格局下的債務風險、不同政府與市場公共投資邊界下的債務風險，以達到測算D市地方債務風險的目的。 最后，比較壓力測試負債率、債務率、再融資率等風險指標的變化，得出結論：“十二五”時期D市地方債務風險雖然總體可控，但部分指標顯示債務壓力持續(xù)走高，形勢不容樂觀，有必要多管齊下、疏堵結合，通過保持適當經(jīng)濟發(fā)展增速、上級向下轉移部分財力、市場參與公共投資領域的投融資等措施，以緩解地方政府債務壓力。據(jù)此，提出相關的風險防范對策與建議。
[Abstract]:At present, there are some problems in local debt, such as irregular borrowing and financing, inadequate supervision, weak solvency of the industry, lack of evaluation mechanism and preventive mechanism, and so on, and there are some hidden dangers. This paper takes D city as an example to study the risk level of local debt in third-tier cities. First of all, this paper expounds the current situation of local debt in D city, analyzes its risk, including repayment risk, debt risk affecting government authority, social stability, macroeconomic operation and even financial risk, and then deeply analyzes the history and practical reasons of its formation. Then, using the combination of quantitative and qualitative, empirical and theoretical research methods, this paper calculates the scale of local debt in D city during the 12th five-year Plan period, including the impact of stock debt during the Eleventh five-year Plan period and the new debt in the 12th five-year Plan period. The former uses the EXCEL,PMT function to calculate the principal and interest of debt and the acquisition, while the latter is obtained by the difference between the investment capital demand of the local government and the investment capacity of the local government. Through the scenario assumption, the local debt stress test of D city is carried out: the debt risk under different economic growth perspectives, the debt risk under different central and local expenditure responsibility sharing patterns, and the debt risk under the boundary between different government and market public investment, in order to achieve the purpose of measuring the local debt risk in D city. Finally, by comparing the changes of risk indexes such as debt ratio, debt ratio and refinancing rate, it is concluded that although the local debt risk of City D during the 12th five-year Plan period is generally controllable, some indicators show that the debt pressure continues to rise, the situation is not optimistic, it is necessary to combine multi-pronged economic development, and the superiors transfer some of their financial resources downward by maintaining the appropriate growth rate of economic development. Market participation in public investment in the field of investment and financing and other measures to ease the pressure on local government debt. Based on this, the relevant risk prevention countermeasures and suggestions are put forward.
【學位授予單位】：哈爾濱工業(yè)大學
【學位級別】：碩士
【學位授予年份】：2012
【分類號】：F812.5

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