【摘要】：歐洲債務(wù)危機引起世界各國的高度關(guān)注,我國地方政府性債務(wù)問題也日益凸現(xiàn)出來,尤其是地方政府性債務(wù)規(guī)模問題成為各界人士討論的焦點。我國地方政府性債務(wù)具有許多自身的特點,比如政府搭建平臺間接舉債,債務(wù)資金主要用于基礎(chǔ)設(shè)施建設(shè),資金來源依賴銀行,債務(wù)償還依賴地方財政收入,債務(wù)規(guī)模龐大且增長迅速等等,地方政府性債務(wù)規(guī)模直接影響到地方財政風險和國家金融安全,確立合理的債務(wù)規(guī)模是維護國家金融安全的一項重要而緊迫的任務(wù)。 本文在借鑒國內(nèi)外大量研究成果的基礎(chǔ)上,采用理論聯(lián)系實踐的辦法,深入分析了我國地方政府性債務(wù)安全規(guī)模問題。本文首先系統(tǒng)地梳理了國內(nèi)外有關(guān)地方政府性債務(wù)的相關(guān)理論和實踐情況,分析了我國地方政府性債務(wù)的現(xiàn)狀和特點,從政府違約風險的角度出發(fā),通過引入國際常用風險測度模型KMV模型的相關(guān)思想,建立了適合我國地方政府性債務(wù)安全規(guī)模測定的模型,并以北京市為例展示了債務(wù)安全規(guī)模測算的過程。文章最后還從債務(wù)存量和增量兩個方面對控制地方政府性債務(wù)規(guī)模提出了相關(guān)思路和可操作性的建議,提出我國要加強中央管理和立法保障,完善相關(guān)會計制度,引入信用評價機構(gòu),同時政府部門要開源節(jié)流,改革績效考核機制等。 本文的創(chuàng)新之處有兩點。一是以2011年6月國家審計署首次公布的我國地方政府性債務(wù)相關(guān)數(shù)據(jù)為基礎(chǔ),對當前我國地方政府性債務(wù)實際情況進行了深入細致的分析；二是在債務(wù)安全規(guī)模界定的基礎(chǔ)上,借鑒國際常用風險測度模型,從地方政府償債角度設(shè)計出測算債務(wù)安全規(guī)模的模型。
[Abstract]:The debt crisis in Europe has aroused the attention of all countries in the world, and the problem of local government debt in China has become increasingly prominent, especially the problem of the scale of local government debt has become the focus of discussion in all walks of life. Our local government debt has many characteristics, such as the government to build a platform for indirect borrowing, debt funds are mainly used for infrastructure construction, the source of funds depends on banks, debt repayment depends on local financial revenue. The scale of local government debt has a direct impact on the local financial risk and national financial security. It is an important and urgent task to maintain the national financial security to establish a reasonable debt scale. Based on a large number of domestic and foreign research results, this paper analyzes the security scale of local government debt in China by means of combining theory with practice. Firstly, this paper systematically combs the relevant theories and practices of local government debt at home and abroad, analyzes the present situation and characteristics of local government debt in China, and sets out from the angle of government default risk. By introducing the idea of international risk measurement model (KMV), this paper establishes a model suitable for the measurement of the security scale of local government debt in China, and takes Beijing as an example to demonstrate the process of calculating the scale of debt safety. Finally, the paper puts forward some suggestions on how to control the scale of local government debt from the two aspects of debt stock and increment, and points out that our country should strengthen the central management and legislative guarantee, perfect the relevant accounting system. The introduction of credit evaluation institutions, at the same time government departments to increase revenue and reduce expenditure, the reform of performance evaluation mechanism. There are two innovations in this paper. First, based on the data related to local government debt published for the first time by the National Audit Office in June 2011, this paper makes a thorough and detailed analysis of the actual situation of local government debt in China. Secondly, on the basis of defining the scale of debt security, a model for calculating the scale of debt safety is designed from the perspective of local governments.
【學位授予單位】：北京交通大學
【學位級別】：碩士
【學位授予年份】：2012
【分類號】：F812.5;F224

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