本文選題：地方政府債券 + 信用風(fēng)險��； 參考：《沈陽大學(xué)》2013年碩士論文

【摘要】：我國1994年《預(yù)算法》第二十八條規(guī)定：“地方各級預(yù)算按照量入為出、收支平衡的原則編制，不列赤字。除法律和國務(wù)院另有規(guī)定外，地方政府不得發(fā)行地方政府債券”。2008年國際金融危機(jī)對我國經(jīng)濟(jì)造成嚴(yán)重沖擊，中央政府推出4萬億元經(jīng)濟(jì)刺激計劃。為了緩解地方政府在刺激計劃中的資金瓶頸，從2009年開始中央政府代地方政府發(fā)行2000億元地方政府債券。經(jīng)過兩三年的運(yùn)作，地方政府已積累了一些債務(wù)管理的經(jīng)驗。從2011年開始，地方政府自行發(fā)債試點(diǎn)啟動并取得了一定的成功，也得到了市場的普遍認(rèn)可。此次試點(diǎn)工作的推出是地方債發(fā)行方式的重大變革。未來我國地方政府債券將經(jīng)歷“代理發(fā)債→自行發(fā)債→自主發(fā)債”的演變。 從2009年至2012年，中央已連續(xù)四年批準(zhǔn)地方政府債券，說明中央政府已不是把發(fā)行地方政府債券作為挽救經(jīng)濟(jì)危機(jī)的臨時舉措，而是致力于建設(shè)我國地方政府債券市場，增強(qiáng)地方政府融資能力。隨著我國地方政府債券市場的不斷發(fā)展與擴(kuò)大，風(fēng)險也隨之而來。因為無論是國內(nèi)外學(xué)者的理論研究，還是發(fā)達(dá)國家成熟的市場經(jīng)驗，都表明地方政府債券存在一系列的風(fēng)險。本文在前人研究基礎(chǔ)上，，在我國開啟地方政府債券發(fā)行、并致力于建設(shè)地方政府債券市場的大背景下，從理論和實(shí)證兩方面做了相關(guān)分析，對我國地方政府債券風(fēng)險的度量和防范機(jī)制的構(gòu)建進(jìn)行研究，希望能為我國地方政府債券的發(fā)展提供理論支持。 本文首先介紹美、日等發(fā)達(dá)國家在地方政府債券發(fā)行和風(fēng)險防范方面的經(jīng)驗，并進(jìn)行比較與評價。其次，本文對我國允許地方政府發(fā)行債券所面臨的各類風(fēng)險進(jìn)行識別與分析。再次，本文以上海市和遼寧省為例，運(yùn)用改進(jìn)后的KMV模型對地方政府發(fā)行債券的信用風(fēng)險進(jìn)行度量，得到兩個地區(qū)不同期限地方政府債券的安全發(fā)行規(guī)模與違約概率，并從各個角度進(jìn)行比較分析。最后，根據(jù)全文研究得出結(jié)論，對我國建立地方政府債券風(fēng)險防范機(jī)制提出具有可操作性的政策建議。
[Abstract]:Article 28 of China's 1994 Budget Law stipulates: "Local budgets at all levels shall be compiled according to the principle of keeping expenditure within the limits of income and expenditure, and shall not be included in the deficit." Unless otherwise stipulated by the law and the State Council, local governments are not allowed to issue local government bonds. "the 2008 international financial crisis has had a severe impact on China's economy, and the central government has launched a 4 trillion yuan economic stimulus plan. To ease local governments' funding bottlenecks in the stimulus package, the central government began issuing 200 billion yuan of local government bonds on behalf of local governments in 2009. After two or three years of operation, local governments have accumulated some experience in debt management. Since 2011, the local government has started its own bond issue pilot and achieved certain success, which has also been generally recognized by the market. The launch of the pilot work is a major change in the way local bonds are issued. In the future, China's local government bonds will go through the evolution of "agency bond issuance and self-issuance of bonds." From 2009 to 2012, the central government has approved local government bonds for four consecutive years, indicating that the central government has not taken the issue of local government bonds as a temporary measure to save the economic crisis, but has been working to build a local government bond market in our country. Strengthen the ability of local government to raise funds. With the continuous development and expansion of our local government bond market, the risk also follows. Both domestic and foreign scholars' theoretical research and mature market experience in developed countries indicate that local government bonds have a series of risks. On the basis of previous studies, this paper makes a related analysis from the theoretical and empirical aspects under the background of opening the local government bond issuance in China and devoting itself to the construction of the local government bond market. In order to provide theoretical support for the development of local government bonds, this paper studies the risk measurement and prevention mechanism of local government bonds in China. This paper first introduces the experiences of the developed countries, such as the United States and Japan, in the local government bond issuance and risk prevention, and makes a comparison and evaluation. Secondly, this paper identifies and analyzes all kinds of risks that local governments are allowed to issue bonds. Thirdly, taking Shanghai and Liaoning Province as examples, this paper uses the improved KMV model to measure the credit risk of local government bonds, and obtains the safe issuance scale and default probability of local government bonds with different maturity in two regions. And carries on the comparative analysis from each angle. Finally, according to the conclusion of the paper, the paper puts forward some feasible policy suggestions to establish the risk prevention mechanism of local government bonds.
【學(xué)位授予單位】：沈陽大學(xué)
【學(xué)位級別】：碩士
【學(xué)位授予年份】：2013
【分類號】：F812.5

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