發(fā)布時(shí)間：2018-07-07 23:02

  本文選題：創(chuàng)業(yè)板 + 主成分分析　； 參考：《北京工業(yè)大學(xué)》2012年碩士論文

【摘要】：創(chuàng)業(yè)板在我國(guó)是一個(gè)新興的投資板塊，主要服務(wù)于高科技、高成長(zhǎng)的中小企業(yè)，投資門檻低，市場(chǎng)風(fēng)險(xiǎn)大于主板。由于運(yùn)行時(shí)間不長(zhǎng)，國(guó)內(nèi)對(duì)創(chuàng)業(yè)板上市企業(yè)財(cái)務(wù)風(fēng)險(xiǎn)研究的程度和深度還不夠，投資者對(duì)于創(chuàng)業(yè)板風(fēng)險(xiǎn)認(rèn)識(shí)普遍不足，盲目投資現(xiàn)象較為嚴(yán)重。隨著創(chuàng)業(yè)板市場(chǎng)快速發(fā)展，市場(chǎng)上不確定因素的增多，創(chuàng)業(yè)板財(cái)務(wù)問題愈加突出。目前，創(chuàng)業(yè)板上市公司已經(jīng)出現(xiàn)業(yè)績(jī)下滑，成長(zhǎng)性低于預(yù)期等問題。在此背景下，本文對(duì)創(chuàng)業(yè)板中最大的行業(yè)制造行業(yè)進(jìn)行了財(cái)務(wù)危機(jī)預(yù)警研究。 本文在對(duì)國(guó)內(nèi)外財(cái)務(wù)危機(jī)預(yù)警主要理論進(jìn)行梳理后確定主成分分析法作為主要的研究方法，在對(duì)創(chuàng)業(yè)板制造行業(yè)現(xiàn)狀進(jìn)行分析后，對(duì)制造行業(yè)結(jié)構(gòu)、規(guī)模大小分布進(jìn)行了統(tǒng)計(jì)描述，，根據(jù)行業(yè)配對(duì)和規(guī)�；緦�(duì)等的原則從A股市場(chǎng)上選擇樣本，利用SPSS統(tǒng)計(jì)軟件對(duì)指標(biāo)變量進(jìn)行了主成分分析，確定了指標(biāo)體系，并進(jìn)一步建立了預(yù)警模型。之后利用模型對(duì)創(chuàng)業(yè)板制造行業(yè)102家上市公司進(jìn)行分析，將102家企業(yè)分成三類，并借用交通信號(hào)進(jìn)行標(biāo)識(shí)：有30家企業(yè)財(cái)務(wù)狀況良好，運(yùn)行在財(cái)務(wù)綠燈區(qū)，1年后無財(cái)務(wù)風(fēng)險(xiǎn)；有46家企業(yè)財(cái)務(wù)狀況不好，運(yùn)行在財(cái)務(wù)紅燈區(qū)，1年后可能會(huì)出現(xiàn)財(cái)務(wù)危機(jī)風(fēng)險(xiǎn)；有26家企業(yè)運(yùn)行在財(cái)務(wù)黃燈區(qū)，企業(yè)財(cái)務(wù)狀況需要給予關(guān)注。最后結(jié)合主成分統(tǒng)計(jì)描述，分析了創(chuàng)業(yè)板財(cái)務(wù)風(fēng)險(xiǎn)產(chǎn)生的原因。 通過本文對(duì)創(chuàng)業(yè)板制造行業(yè)財(cái)務(wù)風(fēng)險(xiǎn)的研究，可以使投資者更加全面的了解創(chuàng)業(yè)板制造行業(yè)風(fēng)險(xiǎn)狀況，避免投資損失，因此研究具有重要的應(yīng)用價(jià)值，而創(chuàng)業(yè)板作為一個(gè)新的投資領(lǐng)域，對(duì)創(chuàng)業(yè)板制造行業(yè)財(cái)務(wù)危機(jī)預(yù)警研究也具有極高的學(xué)術(shù)價(jià)值。同時(shí)制造業(yè)作為創(chuàng)業(yè)板板塊中規(guī)模最大的行業(yè)，對(duì)整個(gè)創(chuàng)業(yè)板的財(cái)務(wù)風(fēng)險(xiǎn)問題研究也具有很大的借鑒意義。
[Abstract]:Growth Enterprise Market (gem) is a new investment plate in our country, which mainly serves the high-tech and high growing small and medium-sized enterprises. The investment threshold is low and the market risk is higher than the main board. As the running time is not long, the degree and depth of financial risk research on gem listed enterprises in China is not enough, investors generally lack understanding of gem risk, blind investment phenomenon is more serious. With the rapid development of the gem market and the increase of uncertain factors in the market, the financial problems of the gem are becoming more and more prominent. At present, gem listed companies have seen a decline in performance, growth is lower than expected and other issues. Under this background, this paper carries on the financial crisis early warning research to the biggest industry manufacturing industry in the gem. After combing the main theories of financial crisis warning at home and abroad, this paper determines the principal component analysis method as the main research method, after analyzing the current situation of the gem manufacturing industry, the structure of the manufacturing industry. The size distribution is statistically described. According to the principle of industry pairing and basic equivalence of scale, samples are selected from A-share market. The principal component analysis of index variables is carried out by using SPSS statistical software, and the index system is determined. Furthermore, the early warning model is established. Then the model is used to analyze 102 listed companies in the gem manufacturing industry. 102 enterprises are classified into three categories, and the traffic signals are used to mark them: 30 enterprises are in good financial condition, running in the financial green zone, and no financial risk after one year; There are 46 enterprises in poor financial situation, running in the financial red-light zone, may occur in a year later financial crisis risk; 26 enterprises operating in the financial yellow light area, the financial situation of enterprises need to pay attention to. Finally, the paper analyzes the causes of financial risk of gem based on principal component statistical description. Through the research on the financial risk of the gem manufacturing industry, investors can get a better understanding of the risk situation of the gem manufacturing industry and avoid investment losses, so the research has important application value. As a new investment field, the gem has a high academic value to the early warning of financial crisis in the gem manufacturing industry. At the same time, as the largest industry in the gem, the manufacturing industry has great reference significance to the financial risk research of the whole gem.
【學(xué)位授予單位】：北京工業(yè)大學(xué)
【學(xué)位級(jí)別】：碩士
【學(xué)位授予年份】：2012
【分類號(hào)】：F275;F832.51;F224

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