本文選題：地方債 + 發(fā)行風險　； 參考：《內蒙古財經大學》2012年碩士論文

【摘要】：為了應對國際金融危機，保持國內經濟平穩(wěn)快速發(fā)展，2009年我國首次在全國范圍內發(fā)行了數額2000億元的地方債。截至2011年，中央政府每年代地方發(fā)行2000億元地方債，這些地方債主要用來為地方政府的公益性項目以及民生建設項目融資。在我們看到地方債帶來的正面效應同時，更應看到地方債發(fā)行過程中面臨的風險因素，只有將地方債的正面效應和防范風險制度設計緊密結合起來，才能真正發(fā)揮地方債在促進地方經濟社會發(fā)展積極的作用。因此，本文的著眼點在于對我國已發(fā)行地方債可能出現的風險進行研究，共分為五部分，具體研究內容如下： 首先，介紹本文的選題背景和意義、分析并總結國內外地方債研究現狀，闡述論文的主要研究思路、方法和研究內容以及不足點和創(chuàng)新之處；其次，對地方債風險相關理論做了詳細闡釋，主要包括兩部分，一部分是對地方債理論的概述；另一部分是對地方債風險理論的概述；第三，借鑒美、日等發(fā)達國家地方債風險防范成功經驗，比較并總結出對我國地方債風險防范有意義的啟示，為下文的制度設計提供參考；第四：主要對我國地方債風險現狀分析。首先，，簡要介紹我國地方債的歷史沿革和發(fā)展現狀，然后通過對地方債發(fā)行風險、流通風險、使用風險和信用風險角度進行逐一分析，并運用改進后的KMV模型分析法，對內蒙古自治區(qū)地方債信用風險進行實證分析；最后，關于我國地方債風險防范制度設計。主要通過總結分析國外地方債風險防范的成功經驗，以及我國已發(fā)行的地方債所面臨的風險，并結合我國實際國情來嘗試設計我國地方債風險防范的制度。
[Abstract]:In order to cope with the international financial crisis and maintain the steady and rapid development of domestic economy, China issued 200 billion yuan of local debt for the first time in the whole country in 2009. By 2011, the central government had issued 200 billion yuan of local debt a year on behalf of the local government, which was used to finance local government projects for public welfare and livelihood projects. At the same time, we should also see the risk factors in the process of issuing local debt. Only by combining the positive effect of local debt with the design of risk prevention system, Only then can the local debt really play a positive role in promoting the local economic and social development. Therefore, the focus of this paper is to study the possible risks of local debt issued in China, which is divided into five parts. The specific research contents are as follows: first, introduce the background and significance of this topic. This paper analyzes and summarizes the current situation of local debt research at home and abroad, expounds the main research ideas, methods and research contents, shortcomings and innovations of the paper. Secondly, the related theories of local debt risk are explained in detail, including two parts. Part is an overview of the theory of local debt; the other part is an overview of the theory of local debt risk; third, learn from the successful experience of preventing local debt risk in developed countries such as the United States, Japan, etc. This paper compares and summarizes the meaningful enlightenment to the risk prevention of local debt in our country, and provides the reference for the system design below. Fourth, it mainly analyzes the present situation of the risk of local debt in our country. Firstly, this paper briefly introduces the history and development of local debt in China, then analyzes the risk of local bond issuance, circulation risk, use risk and credit risk one by one, and applies the improved KMV model analysis method. The paper makes an empirical analysis on the credit risk of local debt in Inner Mongolia Autonomous region, and finally, designs the risk prevention system of local debt in China. Through summing up and analyzing the successful experience of the risk prevention of foreign local debt and the risk of the local debt issued in our country, and combining the actual situation of our country, we try to design the risk prevention system of the local debt in our country.
【學位授予單位】：內蒙古財經大學
【學位級別】：碩士
【學位授予年份】：2012
【分類號】：F812.5

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