發(fā)布時(shí)間：2018-06-04 03:51

  本文選題：貨幣政策傳導(dǎo)渠道 + 股票價(jià)格　； 參考：《天津財(cái)經(jīng)大學(xué)》2012年碩士論文

【摘要】：貨幣政策傳導(dǎo)機(jī)制是指中央銀行運(yùn)用貨幣政策工具影響中介指標(biāo),進(jìn)而最終實(shí)現(xiàn)既定政策目標(biāo)的傳導(dǎo)途徑與作用機(jī)理。貨幣政策傳導(dǎo)機(jī)制是一個(gè)多渠道的過(guò)程,可以分為：利率渠道、信貸渠道、匯率渠道和資產(chǎn)價(jià)格渠道,并且不同的傳導(dǎo)渠道產(chǎn)生的效應(yīng)不同。自改革開(kāi)放以來(lái),隨著經(jīng)濟(jì)體制改革的深化和金融市場(chǎng)的發(fā)展,尤其是1990年上交所和1991年深交所成立后,中國(guó)資本市場(chǎng)尤其是股票市場(chǎng)得到了長(zhǎng)足發(fā)展,股票值占GDP的比重以及股票的持有份額在居民的資產(chǎn)結(jié)構(gòu)中持續(xù)增加,使以調(diào)控國(guó)民經(jīng)濟(jì)作為主要任務(wù)的貨幣政策與股票市場(chǎng)的關(guān)系越來(lái)越緊密。由于股票市場(chǎng)在經(jīng)濟(jì)發(fā)展中扮演的角色越來(lái)越重要,股票價(jià)格在貨幣政策傳導(dǎo)中的作用也日益突出,因此研究我國(guó)貨幣政策的股票價(jià)格傳導(dǎo)渠道這一課題顯得尤為迫切。 中國(guó)貨幣政策的股票價(jià)格傳導(dǎo)渠道分為兩個(gè)階段,第一階段為貨幣政策傳導(dǎo)到股票價(jià)格階段,第二階段為股票價(jià)格傳導(dǎo)到實(shí)體經(jīng)濟(jì)階段,從而構(gòu)成貨幣政策傳導(dǎo)渠道的全過(guò)程。在第一階段中,文章通過(guò)單位根檢驗(yàn)、協(xié)整檢驗(yàn)、格蘭杰因果關(guān)系檢驗(yàn)、脈沖響應(yīng)分析、方差分解分析和相關(guān)系數(shù)分析等方法,針對(duì)貨幣供應(yīng)量和利率兩個(gè)變量,研究貨幣政策的調(diào)整對(duì)股票價(jià)格的影響,并得出結(jié)論：貨幣政策傳導(dǎo)到股票價(jià)格這一渠道是通暢的,貨幣政策主要通過(guò)利率而非貨幣供應(yīng)量影響股票市場(chǎng)。在第二階段中,文章通過(guò)與上一階段類(lèi)似的分析方法,研究股票價(jià)格對(duì)消費(fèi)和投資的影響,并得出結(jié)論：股票價(jià)格的消費(fèi)效應(yīng)和投資效應(yīng)都比較小,股票價(jià)格傳導(dǎo)到實(shí)體經(jīng)濟(jì)這一環(huán)節(jié)是不通暢的。因此,目前在中國(guó)貨幣政策的股票價(jià)格傳導(dǎo)渠道是不通暢的,主要問(wèn)題出現(xiàn)在股票價(jià)格向?qū)嶓w經(jīng)濟(jì)的傳導(dǎo)過(guò)程上。針對(duì)如何疏導(dǎo)股票價(jià)格向?qū)嶓w經(jīng)濟(jì)的傳導(dǎo),文章提出四點(diǎn)建議：增強(qiáng)股票市場(chǎng)穩(wěn)定性,減少投機(jī)現(xiàn)象發(fā)生；擴(kuò)大股票市場(chǎng)規(guī)模,提高企業(yè)直接融資比例；加強(qiáng)對(duì)上市公司監(jiān)管,規(guī)范融資資金使用；完善股票市場(chǎng)的準(zhǔn)入退出機(jī)制。
[Abstract]:The transmission mechanism of monetary policy refers to the transmission path and mechanism by which the central bank exerts monetary policy tools to influence intermediary indicators and finally achieve the established policy objectives. Monetary policy transmission mechanism is a multi-channel process, which can be divided into interest rate channel, credit channel, exchange rate channel and asset price channel, and different transmission channels have different effects. Since the reform and opening up, with the deepening of economic restructuring and the development of financial markets, especially after the establishment of the Shanghai Stock Exchange in 1990 and the Shenzhen Stock Exchange in 1991, China's capital market, especially the stock market, has been greatly developed. The proportion of stock value to GDP and the holding share of stock increase continuously in the structure of residents' assets, which makes the monetary policy, which is the main task of regulating the national economy, more and more closely related to the stock market. Because the stock market plays an increasingly important role in the economic development and the stock price plays an increasingly prominent role in the transmission of monetary policy, it is particularly urgent to study the transmission channel of the stock price of monetary policy in China. The transmission channel of stock price of Chinese monetary policy is divided into two stages: the first stage is the monetary policy transmission to the stock price stage, and the second stage is the stock price transmission to the real economy stage, thus forming the whole process of the monetary policy transmission channel. In the first stage, through the methods of unit root test, cointegration test, Granger causality test, impulse response analysis, variance decomposition analysis and correlation coefficient analysis, the paper aims at the two variables of money supply and interest rate. This paper studies the influence of the adjustment of monetary policy on the stock price, and concludes that the channel from which monetary policy is transmitted to the stock price is smooth, and monetary policy mainly influences the stock market through interest rate rather than money supply. In the second stage, the paper studies the influence of stock price on consumption and investment through the analysis method similar to the previous stage, and comes to the conclusion that the consumption effect and investment effect of stock price are relatively small. The transmission of stock price to the real economy is not smooth. Therefore, the transmission channel of stock price in China's monetary policy is not smooth, the main problem is the transmission of stock price to the real economy. In view of how to direct the transmission of stock price to the real economy, this paper puts forward four suggestions: strengthening the stability of stock market, reducing speculation, enlarging the scale of stock market, increasing the proportion of direct financing of enterprises, strengthening the supervision of listed companies. Standardize the use of financing funds; improve the stock market access and exit mechanism.
【學(xué)位授予單位】：天津財(cái)經(jīng)大學(xué)
【學(xué)位級(jí)別】：碩士
【學(xué)位授予年份】：2012
【分類(lèi)號(hào)】：F822.0;F832.51;F224

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本文編號(hào)：1975767