本文選題：金融危機(jī) + 盈余管理�。� 參考：《西南財(cái)經(jīng)大學(xué)》2013年碩士論文

【摘要】：“盈余管理”的研究最早起源于Watts和Zimmerman的研究,他們發(fā)現(xiàn)公司的管理層會(huì)在會(huì)計(jì)準(zhǔn)則內(nèi)通過選擇對(duì)自己有利的會(huì)計(jì)方法進(jìn)而改變公司的財(cái)務(wù)報(bào)告結(jié)果。目前學(xué)界的研究按照實(shí)施后所帶來的后果是否直接影響公司的經(jīng)營活動(dòng)現(xiàn)金流將盈余管理分為了兩大類：一類是應(yīng)計(jì)盈余管理(Accrual based earnings management),另一類是真實(shí)盈余管理(Real earnings management)。前者主要是指管理層利用會(huì)計(jì)準(zhǔn)則將公司的盈余進(jìn)行跨期平滑,并不影響公司現(xiàn)金流和盈余總額；后者不僅影響當(dāng)期的盈余,同時(shí)還會(huì)影響未來各期的現(xiàn)金流。 實(shí)際上,“盈余管理”現(xiàn)象不僅干擾了投資者的決策、而且影響了證券市場(chǎng)的正常的運(yùn)作機(jī)制、更弱化了資本市場(chǎng)的有效性。國外學(xué)者們對(duì)盈余管理的影響因素展開了深入而又細(xì)致的研究,成果可謂百家爭鳴、眼花繚亂。目前的研究都基于常態(tài)環(huán)境下,而2008年席卷全球的金融危機(jī)對(duì)我國的上市公司在銷售市場(chǎng)與資本市場(chǎng)都產(chǎn)生了巨大的沖擊,因此對(duì)“管理層兩種盈余管理水平有沒有受到危機(jī)的影響?”進(jìn)行研究就具有非常重要的實(shí)踐意義。 歷數(shù)我國的證券市場(chǎng)發(fā)展歷程,擴(kuò)容速度之快前所未有,短短二十余年上市公司已經(jīng)發(fā)展到了3600多家,總市值約為24萬億,高速發(fā)展所帶來的后果之一就是制度建設(shè)滯后；而我國證券市場(chǎng)的定位是作為國有公司融資平臺(tái)而建立的,而非市場(chǎng)經(jīng)濟(jì)發(fā)展到一定程度的自然產(chǎn)物,這與生俱來的時(shí)代特征重要表現(xiàn)就是“國有股權(quán)牢牢占據(jù)控制地位”。而已有的研究表明,隨著市場(chǎng)經(jīng)濟(jì)的高速發(fā)展,這種特殊產(chǎn)權(quán)性質(zhì)所帶來的種種弊端日益凸現(xiàn)：上市公司的管理缺位、短期行為、以及盈余信息質(zhì)量無法令投資者滿意等。 之前有國內(nèi)學(xué)者從公司治理的角度展開了對(duì)“盈余管理”與“產(chǎn)權(quán)性質(zhì)”的研究,但是他們的研究背景基于常態(tài)環(huán)境下,研究范圍主要是應(yīng)計(jì)盈余管理,而目前國外的研究卻表明真實(shí)盈余管理的行為在現(xiàn)實(shí)中更為廣泛。因此綜合考慮兩種盈余管理方式的基礎(chǔ)上,對(duì)我國的不同產(chǎn)權(quán)性質(zhì)的公司兩種盈余管理水平在危機(jī)前后的變化深入研究具有現(xiàn)實(shí)意義。 基于上述的研究背景,本文將盈余管理活動(dòng)置于金融危機(jī)爆發(fā)前后的大背景之下,對(duì)“應(yīng)計(jì)盈余管理與真實(shí)盈余管理”在危機(jī)前后的變化進(jìn)行探討研究,提出了主要的研究問題。金融危機(jī)的爆發(fā)分別對(duì)應(yīng)計(jì)盈余與真實(shí)盈余管理產(chǎn)生怎樣的影響?區(qū)分產(chǎn)權(quán)性質(zhì)后考察中國上市公司(國有股權(quán)與非國有股權(quán)),其管理層在選擇盈余管理方式時(shí)是否存在差異,受到金融危機(jī)的沖擊后有沒有發(fā)生改變? 綜上所述,本文研究了兩個(gè)問題：1、兩種盈余管理水平在金融危機(jī)前后是否存在差異性。2、產(chǎn)權(quán)性質(zhì)與兩種盈余管理之間的關(guān)系是否受到金融危機(jī)的影響。 本文的研究思路是：首先從“盈余管理”和“產(chǎn)權(quán)性質(zhì)與盈余管理的關(guān)系”以及“金融危機(jī)與盈余管理、產(chǎn)權(quán)性質(zhì)的關(guān)系”三方面對(duì)國內(nèi)外已有的研究成果進(jìn)行了梳理,以準(zhǔn)確了解和掌握目前理論界在此領(lǐng)域研究進(jìn)展與現(xiàn)狀；之后從理論出發(fā)對(duì)本文研究所涉及的“盈余管理”、“產(chǎn)權(quán)性質(zhì)”、“金融危機(jī)”三個(gè)概念以及之間關(guān)系進(jìn)行探討與分析。在上述的文獻(xiàn)綜述與理論分析基礎(chǔ)之上,借鑒國內(nèi)外成熟的研究理論與模型,分析我國產(chǎn)權(quán)性質(zhì)與盈余管理之間的關(guān)系,對(duì)實(shí)證研究進(jìn)行設(shè)計(jì)并提出本文的假設(shè)。之后依次構(gòu)建回歸模型、界定變量、選取適當(dāng)?shù)臉颖�、收集足量�?shù)據(jù)并進(jìn)行多元線性回歸以驗(yàn)證上述假設(shè)。最后結(jié)合理論分析與實(shí)證結(jié)果,歸納總結(jié)本文的結(jié)論,反思本文不足之處,并指明進(jìn)一步的研究方向。 本文研究結(jié)構(gòu)框架如下： 第一章,導(dǎo)論。簡要介紹本文的研究背景與意義、研究思路與框架、研究方法以及本文的可能的創(chuàng)新之處。 第二章,文獻(xiàn)綜述。本章對(duì)“盈余管理”和“產(chǎn)權(quán)性質(zhì)與盈余管理的關(guān)系”以及“金融危機(jī)與盈余管理、產(chǎn)權(quán)性質(zhì)關(guān)系”三方面的研究成果進(jìn)行了綜述。 第三章,理論分析。本章從理論上對(duì)本文研究所涉及的“盈余管理”、“產(chǎn)權(quán)性質(zhì)”、“金融危機(jī)”三個(gè)概念以及之間關(guān)系進(jìn)行了探討與分析。首先從概念、理論基礎(chǔ)以及對(duì)兩種盈余管理選擇次序三個(gè)方面對(duì)盈余管理的相關(guān)理論問題進(jìn)行了回顧；其次從終極產(chǎn)權(quán)理論對(duì)我國產(chǎn)權(quán)性質(zhì)進(jìn)行了劃分,并聯(lián)系實(shí)際對(duì)目前上市公司股權(quán)特征進(jìn)行了歸納；再者對(duì)有關(guān)產(chǎn)權(quán)性質(zhì)與盈余管理的關(guān)聯(lián)性現(xiàn)有研究理論進(jìn)行了梳理；最后對(duì)金融危機(jī)對(duì)我國上市公司造成的影響的時(shí)點(diǎn)進(jìn)行了界定。 第四章,研究設(shè)計(jì)與提出假設(shè)。本章主要介紹了本文的實(shí)證研究的設(shè)計(jì)部分,包括分析思路、研究問題與提出假設(shè)、樣本的選取與數(shù)據(jù)的來源,計(jì)量模型的構(gòu)建與變量的界定。 第五章,實(shí)證研究。本章分別對(duì)所選取的樣本數(shù)據(jù)依次進(jìn)行了均值檢驗(yàn)、分組差異性檢驗(yàn)、多變量回歸分析、穩(wěn)健性檢驗(yàn)。最后根據(jù)實(shí)證結(jié)果分析了不同產(chǎn)權(quán)性質(zhì)公司在金融危機(jī)前后,兩種盈余管理水平的變化。 第六章,研究結(jié)論與政策意見。結(jié)合前文的定性的理論分析與定量的實(shí)證研究結(jié)果,本章對(duì)研究結(jié)論進(jìn)行歸納總結(jié),希望能夠?yàn)檎咧贫ㄕ吲c監(jiān)管部門在提高上市公司盈余報(bào)告質(zhì)量、保護(hù)投資者以及完善國內(nèi)資本市場(chǎng)提供一些有益的建議。 本文研究結(jié)論主要有： (1)首先,與張俊瑞、李彬(2009)的研究結(jié)果相一致,證實(shí)了具有保盈、融資、保增長動(dòng)機(jī)的上市公司的管理層普遍存在應(yīng)計(jì)盈余管理與真實(shí)盈余管理的行為,說明了真實(shí)盈余管理行為在危機(jī)前后普遍存在。 (2)其次本文發(fā)現(xiàn)：金融危機(jī)的爆發(fā)抑制了應(yīng)計(jì)盈余管理的水平,真實(shí)盈余管理水平得到了增強(qiáng)。在危機(jī)環(huán)境下證實(shí)了Zang(2007)提出的盈余管理“啄序理論”,即管理層對(duì)真實(shí)盈余管理的決策時(shí)間優(yōu)先于應(yīng)計(jì)盈余管理。進(jìn)一步研究還發(fā)現(xiàn)管理層對(duì)于真實(shí)盈余管理的三種常見手段也存在偏好,操控酌量性費(fèi)用的手段在危機(jī)前后都普遍被使用,生產(chǎn)操控由于成本高的原因在危機(jī)前較少使用,危機(jī)后操控水平顯著提高。 (3)最后將產(chǎn)權(quán)性質(zhì)與盈余管理方式之間的關(guān)系置于金融危機(jī)下研究,得出的結(jié)論是：常態(tài)環(huán)境下,國有股權(quán)公司真實(shí)盈余管理水平顯著高于非國有股權(quán)公司,非國有股權(quán)公司應(yīng)計(jì)盈余管理水平顯著高于國有股權(quán)公司；危機(jī)環(huán)境下不同產(chǎn)權(quán)性質(zhì)公司兩種盈余管理水平趨于一致。該結(jié)論與產(chǎn)權(quán)理論中的推導(dǎo)相符合,并拓展了目前理論界基于常態(tài)下對(duì)產(chǎn)權(quán)性質(zhì)與盈余管理的研究成果。 本文的理論貢獻(xiàn)在于： 在借鑒國外已有的研究成果的基礎(chǔ)上,將對(duì)產(chǎn)權(quán)性質(zhì)與盈余管理相關(guān)關(guān)系的研究放在了金融危機(jī)背景下,豐富了國內(nèi)關(guān)于盈余管理的研究,有利于拓展相關(guān)研究和理論。具體來說主要體現(xiàn)在： (1)目前理論界關(guān)于對(duì)兩種盈余管理的研究都是基于常態(tài)環(huán)境假設(shè)下展開的,金融危機(jī)改變了公司經(jīng)營環(huán)境,那么管理層盈余管理的行為與常態(tài)是否存在差異。 (2)已有關(guān)于產(chǎn)權(quán)性質(zhì)與盈余管理關(guān)系的研究,絕大多數(shù)是從“應(yīng)計(jì)盈余管理”的角度展開,本文將“真實(shí)盈余管理”納入考察范圍,權(quán)衡考慮產(chǎn)權(quán)性質(zhì)與兩種盈余管理的關(guān)系。另外,本文所做的研究有利于拓展相關(guān)理論,所得結(jié)論對(duì)政策制定具有一定的啟示意義。 本文研究局限： 首先樣本數(shù)據(jù)可能不夠精確,金融危機(jī)的影響真正傳導(dǎo)到我國是2008年四季度,而且如今對(duì)我國經(jīng)濟(jì)仍存在影響,本文選取2008至2010三年作為危機(jī)后的樣本,可能導(dǎo)致結(jié)果不夠精確,存在一定的偏差。 其次在模型設(shè)計(jì)方面還存有爭議。本文對(duì)于應(yīng)計(jì)盈余管理與真實(shí)盈余管理分別選取了修正Jones模型與Roychowdhury的模型,但是目前理論界對(duì)真實(shí)盈余管理的計(jì)量方式還存有疑問,同時(shí)國外的模型拿到中國的土壤里是否會(huì)水土不服,還值得進(jìn)一步的研究。
[Abstract]:The study of "earnings management" was first originated from the research of Watts and Zimmerman. They found that the management of the company would change the results of the company's financial report by choosing a favorable accounting method in the accounting standards. The earnings management is divided into two categories: one is Accrual based earnings management, and the other is the real earnings management (Real earnings management). The former mainly refers to the management using accounting standards to smooth the company's earnings across the period without affecting the company's cash flow and the total surplus; the latter is not the same. It only affects the current surplus, but also affects the cash flow in the future.
In fact, the phenomenon of "earnings management" not only interferes with the decision of the investors, but also affects the normal operating mechanism of the stock market, and weakens the effectiveness of the capital market. The foreign scholars have carried out a thorough and meticulous study of the factors affecting the earnings management. In the normal environment, the financial crisis sweeping the world in 2008 has made a great impact on the market and capital market of the listed companies in China. Therefore, it is of great practical significance to study "whether the management level of two kinds of earnings management is affected by the crisis?"
In the course of the development of China's securities market, the speed of expansion is unprecedented. In more than twenty years, the listed companies have developed to more than 3600, with a total market value of about 24 trillion. One of the consequences of the high speed development is the lagging of the system construction; and the positioning of the securities market in China is established as a financing platform for the state-owned companies, and not The market economy has developed to a certain degree of natural products. The inherent characteristic of the era is that "state ownership is firmly in control position". The existing research shows that with the rapid development of market economy, the various disadvantages of this special property right are increasingly highlighted: the lack of management of listed companies, short term And the quality of earnings information can not satisfy investors.
Domestic scholars have previously studied the "earnings management" and "property rights" from the perspective of corporate governance, but their research background is based on the normal environment, the scope of the study is mainly accrued earnings management, but the current foreign research shows that the real earnings management behavior is more extensive in reality. Therefore, the comprehensive consideration is given. On the basis of the two methods of earnings management, it is of practical significance to study the changes of two earnings management levels of companies with different property rights in China before and after the crisis.
Based on the background of the above research, this paper puts the earnings management activities under the background of the financial crisis, and discusses the changes of "accrued earnings management and real earnings management" before and after the crisis, and puts forward the main research questions. How do the outbreaks of the financial crisis correspond to the earnings management and the real earnings management What is the difference between the Chinese listed companies (state owned and non state ownership) after the distinction of property rights, and whether there is a difference in the choice of earnings management in the management of the Chinese listed companies, and has it changed after the impact of the financial crisis?
To sum up, two questions are studied in this paper: 1, whether two kinds of earnings management levels have difference.2 before and after the financial crisis, whether the relationship between property property and two kinds of earnings management is affected by the financial crisis.
The research ideas of this paper are: first, from the three aspects of "surplus management" and "the relationship between property property and earnings management" and "the relationship between financial crisis and earnings management, property right nature", the research achievements at home and abroad are combed in order to accurately understand and grasp the current research progress and status of the field of theory in this field; From the theory, the three concepts and relations between "earnings management", "property property" and "financial crisis" are discussed and analyzed. On the basis of the literature review and theoretical analysis mentioned above, we use the mature research theories and models at home and abroad to analyze the relationship between property rights and earnings management in China. Then we design the empirical research and put forward the hypothesis of this paper. Then we build the regression model, define the variables, select the appropriate samples, collect sufficient data and carry out multiple linear regression to verify the above hypothesis. Finally, the conclusions are summarized, the shortcomings of this article are summed up, and the inadequacies of this paper are reflected, and the progress is pointed out. The research direction of the step.
The framework of this paper is as follows:
The first chapter, introduction, briefly introduces the background and significance of this study, research ideas and framework, research methods and possible innovations.
The second chapter is a literature review. This chapter reviews the research achievements of "earnings management" and "the relationship between property rights and earnings management", and the three aspects of "financial crisis and earnings management, property rights relationship".
The third chapter is theoretical analysis. This chapter discusses and analyses the three concepts and relations between "earnings management", "property property" and "financial crisis", which are involved in this study. First, the related theoretical problems of earnings management are introduced from the concept, the theoretical basis and the three aspects of the two earnings management selection order. Secondly, the paper divides the property property of our country from the ultimate property right theory, and sums up the characteristics of the stock rights of the listed companies, and then combs the existing research theory about the relevance of the property property and the earnings management; finally, the influence of the financial crisis on the listed companies in our country is given. The point is defined.
The fourth chapter, the research design and the hypothesis. This chapter mainly introduces the design part of the empirical research, including the analysis idea, the research problem and the hypothesis, the selection of the sample and the source of the data, the construction of the measurement model and the definition of the variables.
The fifth chapter, empirical study. This chapter respectively carries out the mean test, the grouping difference test, the multivariate regression analysis, the robustness test. Finally, according to the empirical results, the changes of the two kinds of earnings management level before and after the financial crisis of different property rights companies are analyzed.
The sixth chapter, the conclusion and the policy opinion, combined with the qualitative theoretical analysis and quantitative empirical research, this chapter summarizes the conclusions, and hopes to provide some useful construction for policy makers and regulators in improving the quality of earnings reports of listed companies, protecting investors and improving the domestic capital market. Argumentative.
The main conclusions of this paper are as follows:
(1) first, it is consistent with the results of Zhang Junrui and Jeky (2009), which confirms that the management of listed companies with earnings, financing and growth motivation generally exists in the behavior of accrued earnings management and real earnings management, which shows that real earnings management behavior is common before and after the crisis.
(2) Secondly, we find that the outbreak of the financial crisis has suppressed the level of accrual earnings management, and the level of real earnings management has been enhanced. In the crisis environment, the "pecking order theory" proposed by Zang (2007) has been confirmed, that is, the decision time of the management level on the real earnings management is preceded by the accrual earnings management. Further research has also been found. Management has a preference for three common means of real earnings management. The means to manipulate the discretionary cost are generally used before and after the crisis. The production manipulation is less used before the crisis because of the high cost, and the level of manipulation after the crisis has been significantly improved.
(3) at last, the relationship between property rights and earnings management is studied under the financial crisis, and the conclusion is that under the normal environment, the real earnings management level of the state-owned Holdings Company is significantly higher than that of the non-state-owned Holdings Company, and the non state-owned Holdings Company accrued earnings management is significantly higher than the state-owned Holdings Company. The two earnings management levels are consistent with the property rights company. This conclusion accords with the derivation in the property right theory, and expands the research results of the property property and earnings management in the current theorists.
The theoretical contributions of this article are as follows:
On the basis of the research achievements of foreign countries, the research on the relationship between property rights and earnings management has been put in the background of the financial crisis, enriching the research on earnings management in China, which is beneficial to the development of related research and theory.
(1) at present, the research on the two kinds of earnings management is based on the hypothesis of the normal environment. The financial crisis has changed the operating environment of the company, and the behavior of management earnings management is different from the normal.
(2) most of the studies on the relationship between property rights and earnings management have been carried out from the perspective of "accrued earnings management". This paper puts "real earnings management" into the scope of investigation and considers the relationship between property rights and the two kinds of earnings management. In addition, the research done in this paper is beneficial to expand the relevant theories and obtain the conclusion to the government. The policy making has some inspirations.
The limitations of this paper are as follows:
The first sample data may not be accurate enough. The impact of the financial crisis is truly transmitted to our country in the four quarter of 2008, and it still has an impact on China's economy. This article selects 2008 to 2010 three years as a sample of the crisis, which may result in the result inaccurate and there is a certain deviation.
Secondly, there are still disputes in the design of the model. This paper selects the model of the revised Jones model and the Roychowdhury for the accrued earnings management and the real earnings management, but there are some doubts about the measurement mode of the real earnings management at the present time. At the same time, whether the foreign model will take the soil in China will be dissatisfied, and the value of the model is also worth the value of the model. A further study is needed.
【學(xué)位授予單位】：西南財(cái)經(jīng)大學(xué)
【學(xué)位級(jí)別】：碩士
【學(xué)位授予年份】：2013
【分類號(hào)】：F275;F276.6;F832.51

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