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募資投向變更對(duì)股價(jià)影響的實(shí)證研究

發(fā)布時(shí)間:2018-05-20 05:47

  本文選題:募資投向變更 + IPO融資 ; 參考:《江西財(cái)經(jīng)大學(xué)》2013年碩士論文


【摘要】:隨著我國資本市場的繁榮發(fā)展,股票市場在企業(yè)融資過程中發(fā)揮著越來越重要的作用。自1990年我國A股市場開始運(yùn)行以來,已經(jīng)為我國企業(yè)融入大量資金,有效地解決了上市公司股權(quán)融資問題。從股票市場開始運(yùn)行以來,我國公司上市采用的是核準(zhǔn)制的形式。公司能否利用融資、再融資等形式從股票市場融入發(fā)展所需要的資金最終取決于股票市場監(jiān)管層的批準(zhǔn)與否,而不是市場的供需狀況。這是行政手段介入市場運(yùn)行的表現(xiàn)之一。在我國現(xiàn)行制度下,企業(yè)發(fā)行股票融資必須以項(xiàng)目的形式,因此企業(yè)在上市融資的過程中必然以項(xiàng)目為導(dǎo)向,募集資金的目的也是為了項(xiàng)目投產(chǎn)。但是現(xiàn)實(shí)中,往往因?yàn)楦鞣N原因需要變更企業(yè)的募資投向。那么上市公司在變更募資投向之后,公司股價(jià)的變化有哪些影響因素呢?這是值得我們研究的問題。 目前,我國學(xué)術(shù)界,對(duì)于募資投向變更的研究并不多,主要集中在IPO募資投向變更方面,也有學(xué)者針對(duì)H股進(jìn)行過相關(guān)研究。本文的研究在以前文獻(xiàn)的基礎(chǔ)上增加了對(duì)于再融資募資投向變更的研究,并將其與IPO募資投向變更做了對(duì)比分析。在方法上,本文采用了理論與實(shí)證相結(jié)合的方式進(jìn)行探討,二者相互支持,相互印證。 本文在實(shí)證上主要采取了事件研究法和多元回歸相結(jié)合的研究方法。我們利用事件研究法研究股價(jià)走勢對(duì)于募資投向變更行為的反應(yīng),計(jì)算出事件窗口內(nèi)的累計(jì)超額收益率,再用多元回歸將股價(jià)走勢與各影響因素結(jié)合起來研究。用上市公司的各個(gè)影響因素解釋市場反應(yīng),本文采用公司總資產(chǎn)的自然對(duì)數(shù)(lnSize)、股東權(quán)益增長率(Equity)、凈資產(chǎn)收益率(ROE)、資產(chǎn)負(fù)債率(Debt)、大股東持股比例(Share)、現(xiàn)金流量指標(biāo)(Cash)等6個(gè)指標(biāo)作為解釋變量描述募資投向變更的影響因素。 本文共分5個(gè)部分,第一部分為緒論,主要講述本選題的研究背景和研究意義、研究思路和框架、創(chuàng)新與不足。本章將討論本論文選題的必要性、實(shí)踐價(jià)值和學(xué)術(shù)價(jià)值,,并提出本論文的研究創(chuàng)新與不足點(diǎn)。第二部分為基礎(chǔ)理論,主要介紹公司價(jià)值理論;市場有效性理論;股權(quán)融資理論。本部分將詳細(xì)地講述國內(nèi)外對(duì)募資投向變更問題的最新研究成果,并對(duì)相關(guān)文獻(xiàn)進(jìn)行梳理和評(píng)述。第三部分為募資投向變更現(xiàn)象綜述,本部分將介紹我國股票市場募資投向變更現(xiàn)象的起源、現(xiàn)狀及其成因。本章還將系統(tǒng)性介紹對(duì)募資投向變更行為有著重大影響的政策與制度發(fā)展,并對(duì)其具體內(nèi)容進(jìn)行解讀。第四部分為實(shí)證部分,主要介紹發(fā)生募資投向變更的事件窗內(nèi)累計(jì)超額收益率及其影響因素的實(shí)證研究。本章首先將界定本論文的假設(shè)條件、研究范圍、研究對(duì)象,為下面的研究做出相應(yīng)的鋪墊。本文的研究時(shí)間從2000至2010年,在此時(shí)間范圍內(nèi),我們將挑選出所有發(fā)生融資、再融資募資投向變更的公司,并分別對(duì)其做描述性統(tǒng)計(jì)分析。我們將對(duì)融資、再融資募資投向變更公司的股價(jià)走勢與相關(guān)影響因素做實(shí)證研究。實(shí)證研究部分將采用事件分析法,將募資投向變更的公告定義為事件。然后計(jì)算事件窗口期內(nèi)發(fā)生募資變更股票的累計(jì)超額收益。我們將采用多元回歸模型對(duì)市場反應(yīng)、公司規(guī)模、權(quán)益增長率、ROE、資產(chǎn)負(fù)債率、現(xiàn)金流量指標(biāo)、大股東持股比例等指標(biāo)做回歸分析,并對(duì)實(shí)證分析結(jié)果做出評(píng)價(jià)。第五部分為結(jié)論與展望,說明本論文的主要研究結(jié)論,并根據(jù)相關(guān)結(jié)論做出政策建議,以突出論文的實(shí)踐意義。 本文的主要?jiǎng)?chuàng)新點(diǎn)在于:(1)將研究視野拓展到IPO融資,再融資。在文章中,我們分別對(duì)這兩種不同的融資狀況做了實(shí)證分析,并得出相關(guān)結(jié)論。(2)系統(tǒng)性地梳理了自2000年以來我國股票市場監(jiān)管層關(guān)于募資投向變更的各種制度規(guī)則。由于本人能力所限,本文的研究還有相當(dāng)?shù)牟蛔,主要體現(xiàn)在:(1)實(shí)證模型的變量選取考慮不夠周到。在做多元回歸的過程中,有些變量雖然呈現(xiàn)出回歸關(guān)系,但是并不顯著。(2)由于本文的所有數(shù)據(jù)都必須根據(jù)上市公司年報(bào)手工整理所得,2000年-2010年我國上市公司年報(bào)格式變化較大,整理過程中難免有疏漏。在今后的研究中,本人將更加謹(jǐn)慎地完善數(shù)據(jù)。
[Abstract]:With the prosperity and development of China's capital market, the stock market plays a more and more important role in the process of enterprise financing. Since the beginning of the operation of the A stock market in China in 1990, a large amount of capital has been incorporated into the enterprises of our country, which has effectively solved the problem of equity financing of listed companies. Since the start of the stock market, the company's listed companies have been listed. It is the form of approval system. Whether the company can use financing, refinancing and other forms to be integrated into the stock market depends on the approval of the stock market, not the supply and demand of the market. This is one of the manifestations of the administrative means involved in the market operation. Under the current system of China, the enterprises issue stock melting. The investment must be in the form of project, so the enterprise must be guided by the project in the process of listing and financing, and the purpose of raising funds is also for the project to be put into production. But in reality, it often needs to change the fund raising of the enterprise because of various reasons. This is a question worth studying.
At present, there are not many studies on the change of fund-raising in Chinese academia, mainly focused on the change of IPO fund-raising and investment change, and some scholars have carried out a relative study on H shares. The research in this paper has increased the study on the change of refinancing and fund-raising on the basis of previous literature, and makes a comparative analysis on the change of raising money from IPO to the change. In terms of method, this paper adopts a combination of theory and practice, and the two support each other and confirm each other.
In this paper, we mainly adopt the method of combining the event study method with the multiple regression. We use the event study method to study the response of the stock price trend to the change behavior, calculate the cumulative excess rate of return in the event window, and combine the multiple regression to combine the stock price trend with the influence factors. The influence factors of the city company explain the market reaction. In this paper, 6 indexes, such as the natural logarithm (lnSize) of the total assets of the company, the growth rate of stockholders' equity (Equity), the net assets yield (ROE), the asset liability ratio (Debt), the large stockholder's shareholding ratio (Share), and the cash flow index (Cash), are used as explanatory variables to describe the influence factors of the capital raising and investment change.
This article is divided into 5 parts. The first part is the introduction, which is mainly about the background and significance of the research, the thinking and frame of the research, the innovation and the deficiency. This chapter will discuss the necessity, the practical value and the academic value of this thesis, and put forward the research innovation and deficiency in this thesis. The second part is the basic theory, mainly introducing the company. Value theory, market effectiveness theory, equity financing theory. This part will elaborate the latest research results on the issue of capital raising and investment change at home and abroad, and review and comment on the related literature. The third part is a summary of the phenomenon of capital raising and investment change, and this part will introduce the origin of the phenomenon of change in the stock raising and investment in the stock market of China. This chapter will also systematically introduce the development of policy and system which has a significant impact on the change of capital raising and its specific content. The fourth part is an empirical part, which mainly introduces the empirical study on the cumulative excess rate of return and its influencing factors in the event window of raising capital for change. Define the hypothesis, the scope and the object of this paper, and make the corresponding paving for the following research. The research time from 2000 to 2010, we will select all the companies that are financing, refinancing and fundraising, and make a descriptive statistical analysis. The empirical research part will adopt the event analysis method to define the change of the fund raising as an event. Then we will calculate the cumulative excess returns of the stock raising change during the event window period. We will use the multiple regression model to respond to the market, the company Scale, interest growth rate, ROE, asset liability rate, cash flow index, large shareholder shareholding ratio and other indicators to do regression analysis, and evaluate the results of the empirical analysis. The fifth part is the conclusion and prospect, explaining the main conclusions of this paper, and making policy recommendations according to the relevant conclusions, to highlight the practical significance of the paper.
The main innovation points of this article are as follows: (1) the research field of vision is extended to IPO financing and refinancing. In this article, we have made an empirical analysis of the two different financing conditions and obtained the relevant conclusions. (2) systematically combed the various institutional rules on the change of fund raising in the stock market of China since 2000. The study of my ability is limited, and the research of this paper is quite inadequate, which is mainly reflected in: (1) the selection of variables in the empirical model is not thoughtful enough. In the process of multiple regression, some variables are not significant although they show a regression relationship. (2) because all the data in this paper must be manually arranged according to the annual report of the listed company, 2000 In the year of -2010, the format of annual reports of Listed Companies in China changed greatly, and there were unavoidable omissions in the process of consolidation. In the future research, I would be more careful to improve the data.
【學(xué)位授予單位】:江西財(cái)經(jīng)大學(xué)
【學(xué)位級(jí)別】:碩士
【學(xué)位授予年份】:2013
【分類號(hào)】:F832.51;F224

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